Atlanta Falcons

ATL — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Regime change: HC Raheem Morris and GM Terry Fontenot fired 2026-01-04 after an 8-9 season (NFL.com, CBS Sports, Jan 2026). Kevin Stefanski hired as HC; Ian Cunningham hired as GM; Matt Ryan named team president (atlantafalcons.com / ESPN, 2026 offseason). OC Zac Robinson left for the Buccaneers' OC job. All 2025 offensive tendency stats are void for projection — coaching-change protocol (methodology §9) applied throughout.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Tommy Rees, OC — confirmed. Stefanski publicly announced Rees will call plays and said he is "very, very comfortable" with the setup (atlantafalcons.com, Jan 2026; SI.com, sportstalkatl.com). Stefanski does NOT call plays.
• Tenure with team: Year 1 (hired 2026-01-22). Prior relationship with QB1: none with Penix or Tagovailoa; 2 years under Stefanski in Cleveland (2024 pass-game specialist/TE coach, 2025 OC).
• System context: the scheme is the Stefanski tree (wide zone + play-action, 12-personnel heavy); Rees and Stefanski built the Cleveland system collaboratively and continue that joint approach (clevelandbrowns.com / BrownsZone, Nov 2025). Treat tendencies as Rees-executed, Stefanski-shaped.

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

CLE wks 10–18 numbers computed from data/stats/2025/participation.csv + ftn_charting.csv (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07); target shares from weekly.csv. Sample is 9 games with rookie QBs and a bad OL — low confidence, roster-contaminated.

Read: Rees's one NFL sample is TE-centric, play-action-heavy (25.4% PA/dropback = high band), 12-personnel-heavy (42% = extreme), moderate motion (~48%), with a healthy RB target share (23.9%) and no fed WR alpha — but he inherited no alpha in Cleveland. In Atlanta he inherits a true X getting $141M (London) and the league's scrimmage-yards leader (Bijan), so expect WR1 TS to run well above his Cleveland number while the 12-heavy/PA/TE-friendly shape holds — a near-ideal scheme for Pitts and a WR3-hostile one. Motion drops from ATL's 2025 level (63.8% under Zac Robinson → ~48% expected), and first-year install drag applies: slower pace and vanilla usage early, truer tendencies by midseason.

QB situation

• QB1: Michael Penix Jr. — listed QB1 (Ourlads depth chart, as-of 2026-06-18) but in an open competition with Tua Tagovailoa. Benching risk: live. Penix (2024 1.8 draft capital) is 8 months post ACL-reconstruction surgery (partial tear, Nov 2025 — ESPN); not cleared for 11-on-11 through June minicamp, aiming for Week 1 (NFL.com, June 2026). Tua signed a 1-year low-cost deal after his Miami release (still owed ~$100M by MIA) and took most offseason reps; multiple outlets called him the early favorite after minicamp (Yahoo/clutchpoints, June 2026). Falcons QB coach: "no competition until Penix is fully healthy" (NFL.com, June 2026).
• Backup: Tua Tagovailoa — tier A (proven starter; pass game survives, with durability caveats of his own). QB3 Easton Stick (tier C).
• Contingency line: If Penix misses time: Tua Tagovailoa, tier A — pass rate holds (maybe +1-2%), aDOT drops (quick rhythm/RAC game), London's target volume holds or rises on in-breakers, Pitts and Bijan gain as short-area outlets, Dotson's vertical role shrinks. If BOTH miss time: Stick, tier C — floor drops a tier for every pass-catcher.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Jake Matthews (LT, yr 13) — Matthew Bergeron (LG) — Ryan Neuzil (C) — Chris Lindstrom (RG) — Jawaan Taylor (RT, new: 1yr/$5M, signed 2026-04-10 after KC release). Kaleb McGary retired April 2026 (SI); 2025 fill-in RT Elijah Wilkinson left for ARI. No rookie starters (R7 OT Ethan Onianwa is depth). Bill Callahan hired as OL coach — league's most respected OL developer (atlantafalcons.com, 2026).
• Interior vs edge: interior is the strength (Lindstrom elite, Bergeron/Neuzil solid, 17-game continuity trio) — protects the middle, supports QB efficiency. Edge is the question: Matthews is 34, Taylor is a one-year flyer with a penalty/inconsistency history — expect chips/quick game to help the RT side; mild compression risk (slot/underneath profiles gain, deep aDOT taxed) more than deep-game death.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside zone (Stefanski/Callahan) with duo/gap mixed — RB fits: one-cut burst backs. Bijan Robinson is an ideal fit; Brian Robinson Jr. fits the duo/short-yardage complement. 2025 RBWR 30th is the counterweight to Bijan's efficiency — Callahan hire is the bet to fix it.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan-tree West Coast — wide zone married to play-action (Rees 25.4% PA/dropback in CLE = high band), heavy 12 personnel (~40%+), moderate motion (~48%). Implications: intermediate in-breakers and PA shots, TE routes gated open (second-TE snaps real), WR3 snaps gated shut, mid aDOT, YAC-friendly. Slot volume is modest in base — the big-slot looks go to London and Pitts.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries, data/stats/2025/receiving.csv+rushing.csv):

• WR Darnell Mooney — 72 tgt / 0 car (released 2026-03-05, NFL.com)
• RB Tyler Allgeier — 16 tgt / 143 car (signed ARI 2yr/$12.25M, March 2026)
• WR KhaDarel Hodge — 10 tgt (released March 2026, atlantafalcons.com)
• WR David Sills V — 36 tgt (presumed departed — not on June Ourlads two-deep; contract status UNVERIFIED)
• WR Ray-Ray McCloud — 14 tgt in 4 gms (presumed departed — not on June Ourlads two-deep)
• QB Kirk Cousins — released March 2026 after restructure (bloggingdirty/Falcoholic tracker)

Vacated targets: 98 confirmed (148 incl. presumed) · Vacated carries: 143

Arrivals (claim):

• QB Tua Tagovailoa — 1-yr vet deal (money mostly paid by MIA) — starter-grade claim on the QB room
• WR Jahan Dotson — 2yr/$15M ($5M 2026 cap) — WR2-by-default claim, thin production base (18-262-1 at PHI 2025)
• WR Olamide Zaccheaus — 1-yr vet deal (terms UNVERIFIED) — slot claim, Stefanski praise on record
• WR Zachariah Branch — R3, pick 79 (Georgia) — slot/gadget/returner claim, not presumptive over incumbents (sub-R2 capital)
• RB Brian Robinson Jr. — 1yr/$2.5M — RB2/short-yardage claim only
• TE Austin Hooper — vet deal (terms UNVERIFIED) — TE2 in a 12-personnel-heavy scheme
• Retained: TE Kyle Pitts — franchise-tagged then extended 3yr/$54M, $36M gtd (2026 offseason) · WR Drake London — extended 4yr/$141M, $100M gtd (ESPN/NFL Network, 2026)

Projected pecking order:

RB committee split: Bijan Robinson is a true bell-cow — early-down: Bijan heavy majority (60%+ carry share 2025); passing-down: Bijan (BRob is not a receiving back — 16 tgt career-high territory); goal-line: majority Bijan, but Brian Robinson Jr. inherits the Allgeier short-yardage/closer package (Allgeier vultured 8 rush TDs in 2025) — mark goal-line partially contested.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 7.5 (BetMGM, over +105 / under −125; corroborated by CBS Sports "market has faded ATL since February" — as-of 2026-07-07 search) → script lean: neutral, tilting negative (7.5–9 band, low end).
• Projected plays/game: ~63 (CLE 2025 under Stefanski/Rees: 63.4; ATL 2025: 63.5; league avg ~63; year-1 install drag offsets any tempo ambition) · Projected pass rate: ~55% (Rees raw 58.7% was trailing-script-inflated; Stefanski-tree run/PA identity + Bijan + QB uncertainty pull it down; neutral-negative script keeps it off the floor).
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 · rush attempts/game: ~28 (inputs: 63 plays × 55% ≈ 34.7 dropbacks − ~2 sacks ≈ 33 attempts; 63 × 45% ≈ 28.3 rushes incl. scrambles).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Jeff Ulbrich, DC — confirmed retained by Stefanski at owner Arthur Blank's recommendation (atlantafalcons.com / SI, Jan 2026). Stefanski is an offensive HC and does not run the defense.
• Tenure with team: Year 2 (hired 2025) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — 2025 scheme stats remain valid.
• Front/scheme family: 3-4 base / hybrid odd front, aggressive pressure packages (2025 usage; edges Walker/Pearce deployed as stand-up OLBs — Ourlads).

Supporting: 22 takeaways, 23.6 PA/gm, +0.009 EPA/play allowed (def_summary.csv, 2025).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edges and CB1 first):
• Departures: EDGE Leonard Floyd (FA, 461 snaps 2025), EDGE Arnold Ebiketie (PHI, 1yr/$7.3M, 384 snaps), CB Dee Alford (BUF, 582 snaps — primary nickel), LB Kaden Elliss (NO, 3yr/$33M, 107 tkl), DT David Onyemata (NYJ), DT Ruke Orhorhoro (traded JAX). Heavy snap outflow — continuity green flag does NOT apply despite the retained DC.
• Arrivals: EDGE Azeez Ojulari + EDGE Cameron Thomas (rotational vet deals), CB Avieon Terrell (R2.48, Clemson — A.J.'s brother; nickel/CB3 path replacing Alford), LB Christian Harris (FA), LB Kendal Daniels (R4.134), DT Anterio Thompson (R6.208), LB Harold Perkins Jr. (R6.215). Core rush intact: 2025 R1s Jalon Walker + James Pearce Jr. both return as the starting edges (Ourlads 06/18), CB1 A.J. Terrell under contract.
• Shadow-CB tendency: A.J. Terrell — sides-locked under Ulbrich. Staff deliberately took him off travel/WR1-shadow duty in 2025 in favor of more zone/vision (Yahoo/ESPN reporting, 2025). Expect right-CB alignment, not shadow calls.

Read: A high-blitz (34.9%), elite-sack-rate (9.05%) attacking defense built on its two second-year first-round edges, balanced man/zone behind it — weekly boom/bust DST profile with a genuinely elite pressure floor. The rotation lost real depth (Floyd, Ebiketie, Alford, Elliss, Onyemata) replaced with cheaper vets and Day-2/3 rookies, so the pressure rate has downside risk even with the DC and the young rush core retained.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: two-plus major changes — new HC (Stefanski) + new play-caller (Rees, first full NFL play-calling year) + open QB1 competition (Penix vs Tua). New-caller protocol applied; §9 stability cap would be medium, open QB battle drops it to low. Offsets (don't raise the rating): 4/5 OL returning, elite skill core retained and extended, DC continuity.
• Watch items: (1) QB competition resolution in training camp — the single biggest tripwire; Penix's 11-on-11 clearance is the tell. (2) Slot battle Zaccheaus vs Branch. (3) Goal-line split — does BRob take the Allgeier vulture role whole? (4) Bijan extension (expected summer 2026 — cosmetic for usage). (5) Jawaan Taylor at RT — camp reports of struggles would flag edge-protection compression. (6) Win total movement ≥1.5 off 7.5.