Cincinnati Bengals

CIN — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Zac Taylor (HC) — confirmed. Taylor publicly confirmed he retains play-calling for 2026 and said handing duties to OC Dan Pitcher "wasn't on the table" (ESPN, Jan 2026; SI/AllBengals clarification, Feb 2026). Pitcher interviewed for the TB play-calling OC job and the CLE HC job but stayed (Yahoo/SI, Jan–Feb 2026).
• Tenure with team: 8th season as HC/play-caller (hired 2019) · Prior relationship with QB1: Burrow's only NFL HC (drafted 2020).

Last 3 play-calling stops (Taylor's only play-calling stop is CIN; rows split by recent season):

Read: Taylor with a healthy Burrow is the most reliably pass-tilted caller in football — top-2 pass rate, league-leading PROE, extreme shotgun (92% of dropbacks, 3rd-highest — SharpFootball, 2026), low play-action, and a true alpha-feeding WR1 history (Chase ≥30% TS). He funnels the ball to Chase/Higgins/Brown and starves everyone else; pace is unremarkable and the run game exists to serve script. The 2025 raw numbers were still pass-heavy (66.2% raw pass rate — data/stats/2025/pbp_summary.csv) even with Burrow missing 9 games.

QB situation

• QB1: Joe Burrow — max security (signed through 2029, 5yr/$275M ext signed Sep 2023 — Spotrac); benching risk: none. Health is the risk, not the job: missed 9 games in 2025 (turf toe, returned Wk 12); played 8 games, 259 att, 1,809 yds, 17 TD / 5 INT (data/stats/2025/passing.csv).
• Backup: Joe Flacco — tier A (proven starter; re-signed 1yr/$6M on 2026-03-25 after finding no starting job — NFL.com/bengals.com). He kept the 2025 pass game fully alive: 9 games, 256 att, 13 TD / 4 INT with CIN (data/stats/2025/passing.csv). Age-41 caveat. QB3: Josh Johnson (1 yr, Mar 2026) / Sean Clifford (bengals.com minicamp roster, Jun 2026).
• Contingency line: If Burrow misses time: Flacco, tier A — pass rate holds within ~5%, aDOT holds (Flacco pushes the ball), Chase keeps alpha treatment (30%+ TS was sustained across all three 2025 QBs). Deep-shot efficiency and scramble/extend plays dip; floor drop is modest, not a cliff.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Orlando Brown Jr. (LT) — Dylan Fairchild (LG, 2nd yr) — Ted Karras (C, extended through 2026, $5M — AP, Sep 2025) — Dalton Risner (RG, re-signed 1yr Mar 2026) — Amarius Mims (RT, 3rd yr). No rookies projected to start; R4 C Connor Lew and R6 OT Brian Parker II are depth (bengals.com draft page, Apr 2026).
• Interior vs edge: interior is the stronger half — Fairchild posted the 2nd-highest pass-block grade among rookie OL, Risner graded top-25 guard (PFF via bengals.com primer, 2026); Karras has played 99.5% of snaps since 2022. The concern is the tackles in pass pro: Brown Jr. 56th and Mims 48th of 75 qualifying OTs in PFF pass-block grade (Draft Sharks, Jun 2026). Edge issues compress → chips, quick game; Burrow's quick release already masks much of it (36 sacks allowed, 14th-fewest; top-10 sack% for the first time since 2014 — bengals.com, 2026). Deep-aDOT profiles are only mildly taxed; don't downgrade the QB for the interior.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: zone-lean with gap/duo mix — one-cut zone runner profile fits, which is exactly Chase Brown (1,019 yds on 232 carries in 2025 — data/stats/2025/rushing.csv). Light boxes are common because of the pass threat.
• Pass-game family: McVay-tree origins that have evolved into a shotgun spread dropback game — 92% shotgun (3rd-highest), low play-action, condensed/motion usage modest. Fantasy shape: high pass attempts, boundary alpha volume (Chase/Higgins), healthy RB target lane, slot is the WR3's (Iosivas) domain but thin on volume behind the big three.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries, data/stats/2025/receiving.csv & rushing.csv):

• TE Noah Fant — 41 targets / 0 carries (1-yr deal expired; not re-signed — Draft Sharks, Jun 2026; absent from bengals.com minicamp roster, Jun 2026)
• WR Jermaine Burton — 0 targets 2025 (waived 2025-12-08 — ESPN)
• QB Jake Browning, QB Joe Flacco departures reversed/irrelevant to skill targets (Flacco re-signed Mar 2026)

Vacated targets: ~42 (Fant 41 + Ke'Shawn Williams 1) · Vacated carries: ~2 — trivially small; hierarchy returns intact. No feeding-opportunity flag.

Arrivals (claim): WR Colbie Young (R4, pick 140 — Georgia; big-bodied outside depth), TE Jack Endries (R7, pick 221 — Texas), TE Erick All Jr. returning from ACL (bengals.com, Jun 2026). No arrival carries a presumptive claim over any incumbent.

Projected pecking order:

• Slot WR: Andrei Iosivas — he is the primary slot receiver in 3-WR sets (bengals.com beat reporting, 2025; SI slot-transition feature, 2025); Chase still takes meaningful slot snaps situationally (26.9% in 2024 — PFF), and Gesicki works from the slot in 12/spread looks.
• RB committee split: Chase Brown — clear lead: early downs (60.9% carry share, 232 carries), primary receiving back, and primary goal-line (6 rush TD). Samaje Perine — veteran passing-down/2-minute and pass-pro relief (84 carries, 21 targets, under contract for 2026). Tahj Brooks / Gary Brightwell — depth/ST (bengals.com minicamp roster, Jun 2026). Not contested; Brown is a workhorse in a contract year.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 9.5 (DraftKings; opened Feb 2026 at O −115/U −105, held at 9.5 post-draft — SI, May 2026; steam to the Over per CBS Sports, Jun 2026) → script lean: positive (≥9.5 band; note third-easiest projected schedule — SI, Feb 2026).
• Projected plays/game: ~63.5 (2025 actual 64.5/g — data/stats/2025/pbp_summary.csv; Draft Sharks 2026 projection 63.2; average pace, no fast/slow adjustment) · Projected pass rate: ~63% (dropback share: caller PROE strongly positive + tier-A neutral pass rate 63.5%, trimmed slightly for positive script; Draft Sharks projects 63.3%).
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~37 · rush attempts/game: ~23.5. Inputs: 63.5 plays × 63% ≈ 40 dropbacks − ~2 sacks − ~1 scramble ≈ 37 attempts; 63.5 − 40 ≈ 23.5 rushes. Cross-check: 2025 actuals were 37.6 att/g and 21.8 rush/g (data/stats/2025/passing.csv, rushing.csv, pbp_summary.csv).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Al Golden (DC) — confirmed; Zac Taylor announced Golden and the defensive staff return for 2026 (Cincy Jungle / SI, Jan 2026).
• Tenure with team: 2nd year as DC (hired Jan 2025; previously CIN LB coach 2020–21) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — but note his own midseason scheme reset makes early-2025 stats unrepresentative.
• Front/scheme family: hybrid/multiple — pivoted to five-man fronts with simulated pressures in the back half of 2025 (MatchQuarters, Dec 2025). 2026 projects as 4-down/hybrid built around a rebuilt interior (Lawrence, Allen).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures:
• OUT: EDGE Trey Hendrickson — signed 4yr/$112M ($60M gtd) with division-rival Baltimore, 2026-03-11 (NFL.com/AP). League-best pressure source gone; expect a 2–4 pt pressure-rate hit unless the arrivals cover it.
• OUT: EDGE Joseph Ossai (FA, ESPN tracker Mar 2026) · OUT: CB1 Cam Taylor-Britt — signed with IND 2026-03-17, reuniting with Lou Anarumo (colts.com).
• IN: DT Dexter Lawrence II — trade from NYG for the No. 10 overall pick + 1yr/$28M ext (ESPN/NFL.com, Mar–Apr 2026). IN: DT Jonathan Allen (2 yrs through 2027 — bengals.com). IN: EDGE Boye Mafe (3yr/$60M; 8th in pass-rush win rate among edges — ESPN, Mar 2026). IN: S Bryan Cook (3yr/$40.25M) and S Kyle Dugger (1 yr) (ESPN/bengals.com, Mar 2026). IN: EDGE Cashius Howell (R2, pick 41) and CB Tacario Davis (R3, pick 72) (bengals.com draft page, Apr 2026). Year-2 leaps expected from EDGE Shemar Stewart (2025 R1, injury-lost rookie year) and LBs Demetrius Knight Jr./Barrett Carter (bengals.com, Jun 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown/none established — CB1 is an open question after Taylor-Britt's exit; room is DJ Turner II, Dax Hill, Ja'Sir Taylor, rookie Tacario Davis with the slot job an open battle (bengals.com minicamp, Jun 2026).

Read: a low-blitz, increasingly man-heavy/single-high defense that just executed the league's biggest DL talent infusion (Lawrence + Allen + Mafe + R2 Howell) to replace Hendrickson's pressure by committee — the soft spot is a young, unproven CB room that lost its CB1, so opposing boundary WRs and man-beaters are the attack point until proven otherwise. 2025 results were bad (28.9 PPG allowed, +0.124 EPA/play allowed — data/stats/2025/def_summary.csv), but the back-half scheme identity plus personnel spend is a credible leap case.

Stability & change log

• Stability: high — per methodology §10: same play-caller 8th year (Taylor) + same QB1 (Burrow) + all 5 OL starters returning + no open top-of-depth-chart battles on offense. Offensive continuity is near-total; the entire offseason churn was defensive (tracked by dc_new/defensive section, which does not drag the offensive rating).
• Watch items: (1) Burrow health — any soft-tissue/foot recurrence in camp flips the contingency line live; (2) Chase Brown contract-year usage and any veteran RB addition; (3) slot-CB and CB1 battles (defensive identity only); (4) Pitcher poaching risk is a 2027 issue, not 2026; (5) win-total movement ≥1.5 (currently steaming toward the Over).