Miami Dolphins

MIA — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025→2026 context: the most complete teardown in the league. Dolphins went 7-10; GM Chris Grier out 2025-10-31, HC Mike McDaniel fired 2026-01-08 (NFL.com/ESPN). A Green Bay pipeline replaced everything: GM Jon-Eric Sullivan (hired 2026-01-09 — NFL.com/SI Breer), HC Jeff Hafley (named 2026-01-19, GB DC 2024–25 — miamidolphins.com), DC Sean Duggan (GB LB coach — ESPN), QB Malik Willis (GB backup, 3yr/$67.5M — ESPN 2026-03-09). Tua released 2026-03-09 ($99M dead cap, signed ATL — FOX/AP); Tyreek Hill released 2026-02-16 (CBS/NFL.com); Jaylen Waddle traded to DEN for picks #30+#94+#130 minus a 4th (ESPN FA tracker, fetched 2026-07-07). Every 2025 scheme stat on both sides of the ball is void for projection.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Bobby Slowik (OC, promoted 2026-02 by Hafley) — confirmed: team site describes "new offensive coordinator and play caller Bobby Slowik" installing a Shanahan-family offense (miamidolphins.com 2026 coaching staff announcement + A to Z Sports, spring 2026, fetched 2026-07-07). Kevin Patullo (ex-PHI OC) hired as pass-game coordinator under him (miamidolphins.com) — an experienced staffer, and a residual mid-season risk if Slowik's install stalls.
• Tenure with team: 2nd year in building (senior pass-game coordinator 2025 under McDaniel, non-calling), 1st as OC · Prior relationship with QB1: none — Willis was in GB while Slowik was in HOU/MIA.

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — only two exist: HOU OC 2023–24; SF pass-game coordinator 2022 was non-calling; MIA 2025 non-calling):

Read: Slowik is a Shanahan-tree caller — wide zone married to PA and heavy 21-personnel (29% in HOU 2023, 4th in NFL), slightly pass-over-expected but run-committed in structure; he was fired in HOU after the 2024 offense went predictable behind a bad OL (ESPN, Feb 2025). His stated 2026 identity: "I believe in running the football, skewing as close to fifty-fifty on first, second down as you can" (via CBS Sports Dolphins outlook, 2026, fetched 2026-07-07). Roster adjustment: Willis is a run-threat QB with 6 career starts and the WR room is the league's thinnest, so expect the run-heaviest version of his profile — zone runs, RPO, bootleg PA, screens — with Achane as the offense's engine. Year-1 install drag applies (methodology §9); McDaniel-era MIA tendencies (55.9% motion, 26.8% 21-personnel, 12.9% PA, 57.4% pass, 57.2 plays/gm — nflverse participation/FTN/pbp_summary 2025, pulled 2026-07-07) are void except as roster evidence (the FB/21-personnel bodies remain: FB DJ Herman listed on Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07).

QB situation

• QB1: Malik Willis — 3yr/$67.5M, $45M guaranteed over first two years (ESPN, 2026-03-09) — money says starter; benching risk: low-to-live — Quinn Ewers "was ahead during minicamp" per Athlon (June 2026) and beat reporting flagged Willis's processing speed and receiver chemistry (heavy.com/Yahoo minicamp reports, June 2026). The contract wins camp ties, but this is a monitored competition.
• Backup: Quinn Ewers (2025 R7 #231, benched Tua and outplayed him late 2025 — FOX/ESPN, March 2026) — tier C by the proven-starter standard (4 career games), though the gap to Willis is the smallest C-tier gap in the league.
• Contingency line: If Willis misses time (or is benched): Ewers, tier C — expect the pass rate to hold or rise slightly (Ewers is a pocket passer; Willis's scramble/designed-run volume converts back to dropbacks), aDOT roughly flat, but the QB-run component that keeps boxes light for Achane disappears. No WR1 treatment changes — there is no WR1 to treat.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (Ourlads, fetched 2026-07-07): LT Patrick Paul (yr 3, ascending — SI/roundtable camp primer, June 2026), LG Kadyn Proctor (ROOKIE, R1 #12 Alabama — GM Sullivan says he starts at LG with tackle cross-training, heavy.com post-draft, May 2026), C Aaron Brewer (2nd-team All-Pro 2025 — SI OL report card), RG Jonah Savaiinaea (yr 2, 2025 R2), RT Austin Jackson. Depth: Jamaree Salyer (1-yr FA, LAC), Charlie Heck (swing T), DJ Campbell (R6, Texas). Departed: G James Daniels released (Pelissero, 2026; started 1 game in 2025 before IR).
• Interior vs edge: Brewer is the anchor; the swing risk is a rookie interior starter (Proctor at LG) next to a 2nd-year RG — expect early-season interior pressure spikes (methodology §4), which caps PA depth shots and QB efficiency in the install window. Tackles (Paul/Jackson) are mid: quick game, moving pockets, and Willis's mobility are the mitigation. Both 2025 win-rate ranks were bottom-third; this projects as a bottom-10 unit until Proctor settles.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: wide/outside zone (Shanahan tree via Slowik SF 2017–22, HOU 2023–24; "West Coast offense with zone runs, play-action and RPOs" — CBS Sports Dolphins 2026 outlook) — RB fits: Achane is the prototype (one-cut, elite lateral burst; NFL-best 5.67 ypc in 2025 — NFL.com); Ollie Gordon II is the downhill/short-yardage complement; Jaylen Wright fits the zone track too.
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — PA + motion + condensed sets, YAC-engine intermediate throws, with an RPO/QB-run layer added for Willis. Implications: slot/YAC profiles (Malik Washington, Achane) gain; boundary iso volume is thin by design and by roster; aDOT mid-to-low; expect schemed/manufactured touches to be re-established from scratch under the new caller (all McDaniel-era designed-touch roles are void per methodology §2).

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Jaylen Waddle — 100 tgt / 2 car (traded DEN for #30 + #94 + #130, minus MIA's 4th — ESPN FA tracker)
• TE Darren Waller — 34 tgt (FA, unsigned and undecided on playing 2026 — heavy.com/Phinsider, June 2026)
• WR Tyreek Hill — 29 tgt (released 2026-02-16, unsigned amid ACL rehab — CBS/heavy.com, June 2026)
• WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine — 20 tgt (released — NFL.com departures tracker)
• TE Julian Hill — 20 tgt (departed; Ben Sims signed to replace his blocking role — ESPN FA tracker)
• FB Alec Ingold — 11 tgt / 2 car (signed LAC — ESPN FA tracker)
• QB Tua Tagovailoa — 20 car (released, signed ATL — FOX/ESPN 2026-03-09); QB Zach Wilson — 3 car (off roster — Ourlads)

Vacated targets: ~214 (≈46% of 2025's 462) · Vacated carries: ~25

Arrivals (claim): QB Malik Willis (3yr/$67.5M, $45M gtd), WR Jalen Tolbert (1-yr, ex-DAL — competing for the #2 WR role, ESPN tracker), WR Tutu Atwell (1-yr, ex-LAR), WR Caleb Douglas (R3 #75, Texas Tech), WR Chris Bell (R3 #94 — the pick from the Waddle trade, Louisville), WR Kevin Coleman Jr. (R5, Missouri), TE Will Kacmarek (R3 #87, Ohio State), TE Seydou Traore (R5), TE Ben Sims (1-yr, blocking TE), OT/G Kadyn Proctor (R1 #12). No arrival carries more than R3 pass-catching capital — 214 vacated targets against only day-2/cheap-vet claims = a genuine feeding opportunity (methodology §6), and it feeds Achane and Malik Washington first.

Projected pecking order (Ourlads alignments, fetched 2026-07-07 + RotoWire depth chart + minicamp reporting; 2–6 are all contested to some degree):

RB committee split: Achane is the paid workhorse — early downs (lead), passing downs (near-exclusive: 85 tgt vs 9 apiece for Wright/Gordon in 2025), and Athlon/SI (June 2026) project his workload *up* after the roster teardown. Ollie Gordon II (yr 2) is the short-yardage/goal-line hammer — goal-line is contested (Gordon 3 rush TD in that role 2025; Achane kept 8). Jaylen Wright RB3 change-of-pace. Not contested at the top.

TE1/TE2 usage: Dulcich (move/receiving TE) over Kacmarek (R3 rookie, inline), Sims as the blocking TE in 21/12 sets — a low-volume committee unless Kacmarek wins the job outright.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 4.5 (BetMGM, over +105 / under −125, as-of early July 2026 — BetMGM blog, fetched 2026-07-07; second-hardest strength of schedule) → script lean: strongly negative
• Projected plays/game: ~60–61 · Projected pass rate: ~57% of plays (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~28 · rush attempts/game: ~29–30 (incl. ~3–4 Willis scrambles)
• Inputs: MIA 2025 = 57.2 plays/gm, 57.4% pass (nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07 — league-low volume, void as tendency but evidence of roster limits); Slowik PROE ≈ +1–2 at HOU; his stated 50/50 early-down intent + a run-threat QB pull pass rate down; win total 4.5 pushes it back up with trailing hurry-up volume. 60.5 plays × 0.57 ≈ 34.5 dropbacks − ~3 sacks (bottom-third PBWR) − ~3.5 scrambles ≈ 28 att; 60.5 × 0.43 ≈ 26 designed rushes + scrambles ≈ 29.5. Negative-script warning per methodology §7: pass volume here is garbage-time flavored and TD-poor — it feeds Achane/Washington underneath, not deep boundary WRs.

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: HC Jeff Hafley — he calls the defensive plays himself, confirmed ("While he will have the title and role of defensive coordinator, Duggan will not call plays, as Hafley said he plans to call defensive plays" — ESPN, Jan–Feb 2026, fetched 2026-07-07). DC of record: Sean Duggan (first-time NFL DC, decade-long Hafley lieutenant from OSU/BC/GB — ESPN).
• Tenure with team: Year 1 (both) · New DC: yes — new-DC protocol applies; MIA's 2025 scheme stats under Anthony Weaver (blitz 33.0%, man 28.4%, zone 71.6%, pressure 27.1% — nflverse participation, pulled 2026-07-07) are void. Use Hafley's GB rates as the prior.
• Front/scheme family: 4-down, zone-heavy single-high/quarters mix with simulated pressures — GB under Hafley ran more sim pressures than anyone but BAL (MatchQuarters scheme breakdown; Acme Packing Company, Mar 2025).

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• OUT — edge Bradley Chubb released (NFL.com/ESPN tracker, Feb–Mar 2026); edge Jaelan Phillips was traded to PHI at the 2025 deadline (Nov 2025); S Minkah Fitzpatrick traded to NYJ for a 2026 7th (ESPN tracker); CB (nickel) Kader Kohou → KC (Phinsider, 2026); 2025 outside CBs (Jack Jones/Rasul Douglas types) not retained — CB room rebuilt. That is both premium edges and the secondary's best player gone.
• IN — edge Josh Uche (1-yr) and David Ojabo (1-yr) — rotation-tier claims only (ESPN tracker); CB Chris Johnson (R1 #27, San Diego State) — presumptive outside starter (ESPN draft page; Ourlads LCB); LB Jacob Rodriguez (R2 #43), edge Trey Moore (R4), S Michael Taffe (R5), CB Marco Wilson/Darrell Baker (depth), S Lonnie Johnson Jr.
• Retained core: edge Chop Robinson (2024 R1), DT Zach Sieler, DT Kenneth Grant (2025 R1), LB Jordyn Brooks, CB JuJu Brents (Duggan-praised breakout candidate, returning from foot surgery — Athlon, spring 2026), CB A.J. Green III (re-signed).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — no 2026 reporting; Hafley's zone-heavy structure implies sides-locked corners, and the presumptive CB1 is a rookie. UNVERIFIED beyond structure.

Read: Expect a low-blitz, zone-heavy (≈78% zone) 4-down defense that wants pressure from four with simulated-pressure dressing — but Hafley's GB version leaned on Micah Parsons, and this roster's best rushers are Chop Robinson and a released-player-replacement rotation (Uche/Ojabo), so the pressure rate projects below his GB numbers. Soft spots: opposing option-route slots and YAC receivers vs. the heavy zone; a rookie CB1 (Johnson) plus injury-return CB2 (Brents) = coverage-sack timing and takeaway quality both low early. Year-1 install drag applies — avoid in the weeks 1–4 DST window.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10, this is the maximal case: new HC + new play-caller (Slowik, first year calling here) + new QB1 (Willis, 6 career starts, with a live-ish camp competition) + WR room fully overhauled + rookie R1 starter on the OL interior. Only Achane, the OL returnee count, and the FB/21-personnel bodies carry over.
• Watch items: (1) Willis vs Ewers camp reporting — Ewers "ahead" at minicamp (Athlon, June 2026); a flip fires the QB tripwire; (2) WR2–4 battle (Tolbert/Atwell/Douglas/Bell/Coleman) — pecking order 3–6 is soft; (3) Proctor at LG — any move to tackle or bench reshuffles the line; (4) Waller un-retirement or a veteran WR/TE signing (Tyreek Hill remains unsigned league-wide — a reunion is not reported and not expected); (5) Achane workload commentary from Hafley/Slowik in camp; (6) win total already at the floor — a move ≥1.5 is nearly impossible downward, watch upward; (7) DST: Chop Robinson health/usage and rookie CB1 reporting.