Tennessee Titans

TEN — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Regime change: Brian Callahan fired in-season 2025 (Mike McCoy finished as interim); Robert Saleh hired as HC in Jan 2026 with Brian Daboll (OC), Gus Bradley (DC), John Fassel (STC) (tennesseetitans.com "Titans Finalize Coaching Staff Under Robert Saleh", Jan–Feb 2026; Yahoo staff roundup 2026-02). The team then spent $265M+ in free agency (ESPN "Titans spend more than $265M in 2026 free agency frenzy", 2026-03) and drafted WR Carnell Tate at No. 4 overall (NFL.com 2026-04). Coaching-change protocol (methodology §9) and new-DC protocol (§8) applied throughout; all 2025 TEN scheme stats are void on both sides of the ball.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Brian Daboll (OC) — confirmed. Hired explicitly as the offensive play-caller on a 3-year deal after NYG fired him in Nov 2025; described across outlets as "one of the best play callers in the game" brought in to run the offense (NFL.com "Titans hire former Giants HC Brian Daboll as offensive coordinator", 2026-01; titansized/Yahoo staff pieces, 2026-02, verified 2026-07-07).
• Tenure with team: Year 1 (hired Jan 2026) · Prior relationship with QB1: none direct; direct history with WR Wan'Dale Robinson, CB Cor'Dale Flott, C Austin Schlottmann and TE Daniel Bellinger from NYG — the FA class was built around Daboll/Saleh familiarity (FOX Sports 2026-03; profootballrumors Offseason In Review 2026-07-04).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — Kafka called NYG plays 2022–23 and again in 2025 ("Daboll had announced that Kafka would be the play caller for the 2025 season" — CBS Sports/Big Blue View, Nov 2025); Daboll called 2024 (NFL.com/giants.com, 2024-09) and BUF 2018–21):

Read: Daboll runs an Erhardt-Perkins (Patriots-tree) system — simplified concept-based calls, high-percentage short passing married to deep play-action shots. His two signature fantasy tendencies: he feeds one alpha at historic volume (Diggs led the NFL in catches/yards 2020; rookie Nabers 170 targets / 30.7% TS in 2024) and he manufactures a huge short-aDOT slot/outlet role — Robinson's 140-target, 4.8-aDOT 2024 happened under Daboll, and Tennessee paid Robinson $70M to reprise it. Raw pass volume at his stops is script-inflated (bad NYG teams), but the roster build (1.04 WR + $70M slot WR + zero RB investment) says pass-leaning by design. Expect a year-1 install drag on pace/motion (methodology §9); all Callahan/McCoy-era roles are void.

QB situation

• QB1: Cam Ward — No. 1 overall pick 2025, fully-guaranteed rookie deal; benching risk: none (the regime hire was built around developing him). 2025: 323/540, 3,169 yds, 15 TD / 7 INT, 55 sacks taken (data/stats/2025/passing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07); PFF charged Ward himself with 8 sacks / 19 pressures, 3.0s avg time-to-throw (Nashville Post, 2025-11, carried forward).
• Backup: Mitchell Trubisky — 2yr/$10.5M, $6.83M gtd (profootballrumors Offseason In Review, 2026-07-04) — tier B (functional vet; offense compresses). QB3/4: Will Levis (2025 AC-joint shoulder surgery; back at OTAs June 2026 — atozsports 2026-06) and Hendon Hooker (re-signed; Kuharsky depth chart 2026-06-16) — tier C if reached.
• Contingency line: If Ward misses time: Trubisky, tier B — pass rate holds within ~5 pts, aDOT drops, screens/checkdowns rise; Robinson (slot) and Helm hold value, Tate/Ridley deep-intermediate work is hurt most, and Ward's scramble rushing (39 car, 159 yds — rushing.csv 2025) disappears from the run-game math.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (Kuharsky 2026-06-16; profootballrumors 2026-07-04): LT Dan Moore Jr. · LG Peter Skoronski · C Austin Schlottmann (2yr/$7M, ex-NYG) vs Andre James (OPEN BATTLE — added off waivers from LAC in June; developed under new TEN OL coach Carmen Bricillo in LV; rookie R6 Pat Coogan behind — Yahoo 2026-06) · RG Jackson Slater vs Cordell Volson (OPEN BATTLE — R5 rookie Fernando Carmona in the mix) · RT JC Latham. Departed: C Lloyd Cushenberry (released, $9.1M dead money, → BUF), RG Kevin Zeitler (UFA, still unsigned as of 2026-07-04), plus the team failed on a draft trade-up for G Keylan Rutledge (profootballrumors 2026-07-04).
• Interior vs edge: Interior is the risk — two new starters at C/RG decided by camp battles among journeymen and Day-3 rookies; Skoronski is the lone quality interior piece. Interior pressure kills the deep game (methodology §4) — cap deep-aDOT expectations for Ward/Tate early. Tackles are the relative strength (Moore mid-tier, Latham former 1.07). The 16th-place PBWR vs 55 sacks gap says a chunk of 2025's sack disaster was Ward holding the ball — fixable by scheme (Daboll's quick-game E-P system) — but journeyman/rookie interior = expect early-season pressure spikes.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Mixed zone/gap, expected inside-zone + duo lean (Daboll's NYG/BUF fronts were multiple; exact 2026 split UNVERIFIED until camp) — fits one-cut/contact-balance backs: Pollard (one-cut burst) and Spears fit; Singleton is a home-run zone fit when the foot is right.
• Pass-game family: Erhardt-Perkins / west-coast-adjacent — high-completion short timing, concept-flexible, deep PA shots off it (~23.7% PA at NYG 2024 — computed 2026-07-07). Implications: slot usage is the engine (Robinson), PPR floors up, team aDOT down from 2025's air-yards-heavy shape (Ayomanor's 28.7% air-yards share profile — receiving.csv — is the odd man out); the alpha-X role (Tate) carries the WR1-TS history (Diggs/Nabers 30.7%).

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — data/stats/2025/receiving.csv, rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07; status per profootballrumors Offseason In Review, 2026-07-04):

• TE Chig Okonkwo → WAS, 3yr/$27M (79 tgt / 0 car)
• WR Van Jefferson — not retained (52 tgt / 0)
• WR Tyler Lockett — released in-season 2025 (21 tgt / 0)
• WR James Proche — not retained (12 tgt / 0)
• QB Brandon Allen — not retained (30 pass att)

Vacated targets: 164 (~31% of 2025's ~530) · Vacated carries: ~0 — but massive capital added (No. 4 pick + $70M slot WR), so this is *re-allocated to the arrivals*, not an incumbent feeding opportunity (methodology §6).

Arrivals (claim — contracts per profootballrumors Offseason In Review 2026-07-04 unless noted):

• WR Carnell Tate — R1 pick 4 (Ohio State; consensus best WR in the class — NFL.com/NBC Sports 2026-04), fully-guaranteed rookie deal
• WR Wan'Dale Robinson — 4yr/$70M, $38M gtd (~$17.5M APY, incentives to $78M — NFL.com 2026-03; SI contract details), Daboll reunion
• TE Daniel Bellinger — 3yr/$21M, $14.01M gtd; Daboll reunion, blocking/TE2 profile
• RB Nick Singleton — R5 pick 165 (Penn State; Jones-fracture surgery Feb 2026, rehabbing through spring, participating in team drills at June minicamp — atozsports 2026-05; thefantasyfootballers 2026-06)
• QB Mitchell Trubisky — 2yr/$10.5M backup; WR KJ Osborn, RB Michael Carter, TE Kylen Granson — vet depth (Kuharsky 2026-06-16)
• TE Jaren Kanak — R7.225; OL Fernando Carmona R5.142 / Pat Coogan R6.194 (profootballrumors draft list 2026-07-04)
• Retained: WR Calvin Ridley — pay-cut restructure to 2yr/$35.25M, $12.49M gtd (profootballrumors 2026-07-04)

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

Squeezed: Elic Ayomanor (team-high 89 tgt in 2025) and Chimere Dike (74 tgt) fall to WR4/5 — X and Z backups respectively (Kuharsky 2026-06-16). Bellinger is the blocking TE2, low target claim.

Slot projection: Wan'Dale Robinson plays the slot — explicitly the starting slot WR (Kuharsky depth chart 2026-06-16), KJ Osborn behind him; Robinson led all NFL WRs in slot receiving yards in 2025 (SI 2026-03).

RB committee split: Early-down: Pollard (lead — 242 car, ~64% RB carry share, 1,082 yds in 2025 — rushing.csv; age-29 contract year) · Passing-down: Spears (contested with Pollard) · Goal-line: Pollard. Singleton (R5.165) is the developmental change-of-pace whose role can grow post-camp if the foot is 100% (team drills at June minicamp — thefantasyfootballers 2026-06); Carter/Chestnut (re-signed 1yr) are depth. No 2025 carries vacated — consolidation risk runs through Singleton's health, not departures.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 6.5 (BetMGM, Over −105 / Under −115; sports.betmgm.com win-totals page, verified 2026-07-07) → script lean: negative (mild) — under the ≤7 band, but the market prices it a coin flip after 3-14 with poor one-score luck (Sharp Football win-total analysis, 2026-07)
• Projected plays/game: ~62 (2025 TEN actual 61.5 — pbp_summary.csv; Daboll's NYG 2024 ran 64.9 but negative-script-inflated; league ~63 baseline; year-1 install drag −1, mild negative-script hurry-up +1)
• Projected pass rate: ~60% dropback basis (Daboll's NYG 2024: 64.8% dropback / mildly negative PROE — both script-inflated; TEN 2025's 65.6% — pbp_summary — was trailing-script-inflated; heavy WR investment + zero RB investment + 6.5 win total keeps this pass-leaning even after normalizing)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 · rush attempts/game: ~26 (inputs: 62 plays × 60% ≈ 37 dropbacks − ~2.6 sacks/g — improved from 2025's 3.2 but still concern-band interior − ~1.5 Ward scrambles ≈ 33 attempts; remaining ~25 designed runs + scrambles ≈ 26 box-score rushes, RBs ~22–23 of them)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Robert Saleh (HC) — confirmed: Saleh intends to call the defensive plays himself; Gus Bradley (titular DC) is explicitly non-calling — installer/game-week figure with "constant communication" on Sundays ("What new Titans DC Gus Bradley said about his role, including not calling plays" — Yahoo, 2026-02, re-verified 2026-07-07; ESPN Bradley hire 2026-01). Bradley was Saleh's original mentor (Seattle 2011–12) and was SF's assistant HC/defense under Saleh in 2025.
• Tenure with team: Year 1, both · New DC: yes (dc_new: true) — new-DC protocol applied; all TEN 2025 scheme stats are void and shown only as the outgoing baseline.
• Front/scheme family: 4-down front, Seattle-3 tree — Cover 3 married to quarters/two-high rotations, wins with a 4-man rush, low blitz by identity; Bradley preaches "fast and violent" (tennesseetitans.com Bradley intro 2026-02; SF Standard scheme pieces 2025, carried forward).

Prior-stop rates (Saleh calling SF's defense, 2025 — the operative prior; computed from data/stats/2025/participation.csv + def_summary.csv, 2026-07-07):

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first — profootballrumors Offseason In Review 2026-07-04; ESPN trade story 2026-03): Edge IN: Jermaine Johnson (trade from NYJ for DT T'Vondre Sweat — Saleh drafted him R1.22 in 2022; 2024 Achilles, counting on 2023 Pro Bowl form), Keldric Faulk (R1 pick 31, traded back into round 1), Jacob Martin (2yr/$9M, ex-Saleh Jet). DL IN: John Franklin-Myers (3yr/$63M, $42M gtd), Solomon Thomas (trade from DAL, ex-Saleh 49er), Jordan Elliott. Edge OUT: Arden Key (→ IND, 2yr/$16M), Jihad Ward. CB1 turnover — full rebuild: L'Jarius Sneed released ($8.12M dead money) and Kaiir Elam not retained; IN: Alontae Taylor (3yr/$58M, $42M gtd) and Cor'Dale Flott (3yr/$45M, $32M gtd, ex-NYG) as the new outside pair, Marcus Harris nickel (Kuharsky 2026-06-16). Also: DT Sweat traded out, Sebastian Joseph-Day and S Xavier Woods out; LB Anthony Hill Jr. R2.60; Jeffery Simmons extended 3yr/$105.8M ($60.2M gtd, record-setting IDL money) as the interior anchor.
• Shadow-CB tendency: Unknown / sides-locked expected — Saleh's Cover-3/quarters shells are historically sides-locked zone; Taylor is planned as an outside corner, not a slot/travel piece (profootballrumors 2026-04), and neither Taylor nor Flott has an established travel history (inference beyond that UNVERIFIED).

Read: A low-blitz, zone-heavy (≈73%) 4-down Saleh defense that wins with structure and needs the front four to generate pressure on its own — which is exactly why the offseason bought three edge/DL claims (Johnson, JFM, Faulk) and paid Simmons. Soft spots are the zone-beater/option-route underneath stuff; the rebuilt CB room plus year-1 install drag makes this a weak early-season DST play despite real personnel investment, and opposing slots/TEs get the friendly matchup until the new secondary gels.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: new play-caller/regime (Saleh + Daboll, year 1) plus two unresolved OL starter battles (C and RG) and a WR hierarchy rebuilt around a rookie 1.04 = two-plus major changes. QB1 continuity (Ward year 2) and 3 returning OL starters keep this from being the lowest kind of low, but §9's install-drag and role-void rules apply to every 2025-era usage pattern.
• Watch items: (1) C battle Schlottmann vs James and RG battle Slater vs Volson — camp opens late July; (2) Singleton's foot (Jones fracture) and how fast his role grows behind an age-29 contract-year Pollard; (3) Robinson-vs-Tate target primacy in camp reporting; (4) Ridley (7-game 2025) health/usage vs Ayomanor pushing up; (5) Will Levis roster status behind Trubisky; (6) win total moves ≥1.5 from 6.5; (7) defensive install pace + any Taylor/Flott shadow reporting (defensive identity section only).