Don't Look at My Team

Aaron Rodgers (QB, PIT) — 2026 evaluation

Verdict — HOLD (medium confidence)

Rodgers is a locked-in, benching-proof NFL starter ($22M fully guaranteed, announced final season, reunited with his 13-year Green Bay play-caller) whom 1QB mock drafters take never — he is absent from FFC 1QB PPR mocks that draft 23 QBs through pick ~172 (FFC, 2026-07-07). The market's case: 14.19 PPG in 2025 (QB23 per game, computed from nflverse weekly.csv), zero rushing, age-43 season, and a new coaching staff — a replacement-level streamer, which in a 12-team 1QB league with active waivers is free by definition. The profile agrees with that price. His 2025 QB17 finish by total points was a durability compile, not a weekly edge: 3.8 rush yds/gm removes the entire QB floor mechanism in 4pt scoring, and both his TD rate (4.8% on a 42nd-of-45 aDOT) and INT ledger (7 actual vs 14 turnover-worthy plays) point mildly downward. One genuine green flag — McCarthy's pass-tilt history (DAL 2023 PROE +3.0%, 4th) replacing Arthur Smith's −0.7% — is offset by the late-career-pocket-cliff red flag (qb.md §11: "the cliff is sudden") and an O-line changing occupants at both tackle spots. Per §11, a late-career pocket QB needs an elite environment and a near-free price to roster at all: he has the near-free price and a solid-not-elite environment, which nets out to exactly what he is — a matchup streamer and bye-week QB2 worth a final-round pick in deeper benches and $0 FAAB in-season, never a starter-price pick. No "why the market is wrong" line is required: the market is right.

Bull case

Benching-proof volume at literally zero cost: $22M fully guaranteed, a farewell tour, snap-count incentives, and no credible challenger = 16–17 starts at ~32 att/gm. He was QB17 by total points in 2025 while going undrafted in 1QB mocks — free compilers who start every week have streaming and bye-week value by default.
The McCarthy reunion is a genuine, unpriced volume vector: the new caller's last full playbook stop posted PROE +3.0% (4th) vs Arthur Smith's −0.7%, and 13 years of shared system fluency skips the usual year-1 install drag at the QB position. Two or three more attempts per game on the same 6.7 YPA is +15–20 season points nobody is paying for.
The supporting cast improved in exactly his direction: Pittman's hitch/possession profile is a hand-in-glove fit for the quick-timing game Rodgers now plays (2.59s TTT), Metcalf gets a full offseason in-building, and the Dowdle/Warren committee keeps the offense on schedule. His 24 BTT (PFF) say the arm still flashes when protected.

Bear case

Zero rushing floor in a 4pt-TD format: 3.8 rush yds/gm and ~0.5 rushing xTD strip out the entire QB scoring edge this system is built to buy. He must beat you 25 attempts at a time from a 5.9-yard aDOT — the result in 2025 was 14.1 PPG (QB23 per game), with 4 of 16 weeks under 10 points. That is a streamer's week-to-week reality, not a starter's.
Both luck ledgers point down: 7 INTs against 14 turnover-worthy plays (2.6% TWP) means the picks roughly double on the same play quality, and a 4.8% TD rate on the league's 42nd-ranked aDOT leans on red-zone sequencing that regresses toward ~4.3%. The same volume produces ~10 fewer points before any age decline.
Age-43 pocket cliff behind a reshuffled line: qb.md §11 is explicit that this cliff arrives suddenly, and the environment is deteriorating at the worst spot — both tackle positions change occupants and the best interior protector left. His 2025 adaptation (fastest release in football) is already the last line of defense; when pressure beats a 2.59s clock, the floor is not a bad week, it is Rudolph/Howard and a dead roster spot.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, league scoring (4pt pass TD, −1 INT, 0.1 rush yd, −2 fum lost). Median assumes 16 games (age-43 season; played 33 of 34 REG games the last two years):

Component	Floor (p20, ~12.5 gm)	Median (p50, 16 gm)	Ceiling (p80, 17 gm)	Method
Pass attempts	388 (31.0/gm)	512 (32.0/gm)	570 (33.5/gm)	Team profile: ~60 plays/gm × ~59% dropback ≈ 33 att/gm ceiling; Rodgers 2025 = 31.1 att/gm (PIT), 2024 = 34.4 (NYJ) — McCarthy tilt nudges rate up, slow pace caps plays
Pass yards (YPA)	2,480 (6.4)	3,430 (6.7)	3,930 (6.9)	YPA 6.67 in both 2024 and 2025 (nflverse) — a stable two-season level; tackle churn caps the upside, Pittman/full-year-Metcalf support the hold
Pass TD	15 (4.0%)	22 (4.3%)	26 (4.6%)	Provider passing xTD UNVERIFIED; anchored to regressed rate — 2025 actual 4.8% ran above what a 5.9–6.4 aDOT checkdown profile supports (aDOT 42nd of 45 — PFF, fetched 2026-07-08); 2024 rate was 4.8% too, so regression is mild, not violent
INT	9	10	10	From TWP, not actuals: 14 TWP / 542 dropbacks = 2.6% (PFF 2025, fetched 2026-07-08) vs actual 1.4% INT rate — the luck lands; 2024 actual was 11
Rushing	30 yds, 0 TD	45 yds, 0–1 TD	60 yds, 1 TD	21 car / 61 yds / 1 TD in 2025; 22 / 107 / 0 in 2024 (nflverse, incl. kneels) — no designed role, minimal scrambling at 42
Fumbles lost	2	2	2	1 lost 2025 (wk 13) + sack-fumble exposure (nflverse weekly)
Points	≈150	≈217	≈255

Median 217 ≈ QB18–20 by total / ~QB22–24 by PPG (13.6) on 2025's league-scoring table (Daniel Jones 226.4 was QB18, Bryce Young 218.0 QB19); floor ≈ QB28–30 (droppable); ceiling ≈ QB13–15 total (15.0 PPG) — and note the ceiling is a *compiler's* ceiling, reached by starting 17 games, not by weekly spikes. His 2025 weekly shape: median week 14.2 pts, stdev 6.2, only 3 weeks ≥18 and 4 weeks <10 (computed from weekly.csv).

Games risk: medium — per the team profile. He has been durable (17 GS in 2024; 16 in 2025, leaving Week 11 early at 37 snaps and missing only Week 12 — snap_counts, pulled 2026-07-07), but an age-43 season is near-unprecedented territory and skews the downside tail toward lost months, not lost weeks.

Comps (late-career zero-rush pocket compilers; historical, pre-2026 assistant knowledge — directionally reliable, exact ranks UNVERIFIED):

Philip Rivers 2020 IND (age 39, new team, run-lean offense): 4,169 yds / 24 TD / 11 INT — durable compiler, fringe-QB1 total, QB2 weekly
Tom Brady 2022 TB (age 45): yardage held on huge volume, TDs modest — the "volume rescues the total" ceiling shape
Drew Brees 2020 NO (age 41): efficient when playing, 4 games missed — the age-injury floor shape
Aaron Rodgers 2024 NYJ (himself, age 41): 3,897 / 28 / 11 on 34.4 att/gm → 15.1 PPG (computed from repo weekly.csv) — the volume-up version of this same profile
Aaron Rodgers 2025 PIT (himself, age 42): 227.1 pts, QB17 total / QB23 PPG (computed 2026-07-08) — the live in-building base case

Usage profile (qb.md §2 opportunity core + §5 efficiency)

Metric	2024 (NYJ)	2025 (PIT)	Band	Read
Rush attempts / gm	1.29	1.31	Concern (<2.5)	nflverse; heavily kneel/sneak-inflated
Designed rush rate	~0%	~0%	Concern	No designed package exists; McCarthy's tree never ran one for him in 13 GB years
Scramble rate	UNVERIFIED (split unavailable)	UNVERIFIED — <4% by arithmetic	Concern	21 carries incl. kneels over 527 dropbacks; one 20-yd scramble (wk 18) was a third of his season rush yards
Rush yds / gm	6.3	3.8	Concern (<10)	The Konami floor is absent — bottom of the position
RZ rush share / inside-5 carries	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED — ≤3 by inference	Concern	1 rush TD in 2025 (a Week 14 short plunge), 0 in 2024
Rushing xTD	~0.5	~0.5–1	Concern (<1.5)	Sneak-only TD access
Dropbacks / gm	36.7	32.9	Concern/Good line	att + sacks, nflverse weekly
Pass attempts / gm	34.4	31.1	Good (30–35)	Volume is the one real asset; McCarthy tilt is the one upside vector
Team PROE	—	−0.7% (Arthur Smith, void) → McCarthy prior +3.0% (4th, DAL 2023)	Good (projected ~0 to +2)	nfelo + team profile (fetched 2026-07-07); new-caller history predicts usage per qb.md §6
xFP	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED — usage read: QB2 range	—	~31 att/gm at mid efficiency minus all rushing cannot reach QB1 xFP
EPA / dropback	+0.018	+0.051	Low Good	Computed: nflverse weekly passing_epa ÷ (att+sacks); PFF ranks him 21st among qualifiers (fetched 2026-07-08)
CPOE	−4.71	−1.37	Concern-adjacent	NGS season rows (nflverse) — two straight negative seasons; the 2025 improvement is real but still below expectation
Pressure-to-sack	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED — sack rate 5.5%, TTT 2.59s (fastest of 33 qualifiers)	Good by proxy	PFF (fetched 2026-07-08); the quick-release game is the aging adaptation — it suppresses sacks and aDOT together
TWP rate	UNVERIFIED	2.6% (14/542)	Good	PFF (fetched 2026-07-08). Flag: 1.4% actual INT rate sits well below TWP — INTs regress up, mild fade signal
Deep ball / aDOT	aDOT 6.72	aDOT 5.95 (NGS) / 6.4 (PFF, 42nd of 45), aggressiveness 14.1%	Concern (<6.5)	Checkdown environment — capped yardage per attempt; 24 big-time throws show the arm still flashes (PFF)
Play-action rate (team)	—	18.7% (Arthur Smith, void)	Concern band	FTN via team profile; McCarthy's west-coast tree is timing-based, PA moderate — no free-efficiency injection expected

Archetype (qb.md §10): pocket passer without the volume qualifier — a low-volume pocket compiler, overlaid with the §11 late-career pocket QB pattern ("the cliff is sudden — arm strength and pressure response decay together; require an elite environment and a near-free price to roster at all"). Red flags hit (§12): INTs well below TWP; TD rate above what the aDOT profile supports; age-40+ pocket profile behind an OL in transition. Green flags hit: new play-caller with a top-5 PROE stop on his record (McCarthy DAL 2023) — one, and it is priced at zero, which is why this isn't an AVOID.

Context (from data/team-profiles/PIT.md, built + verified 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Mike McCarthy — new HC, confirmed calling plays himself (Angelichio game-plans). 13 seasons with Rodgers in Green Bay (2006–18, two MVPs, SB XLV) — the deepest caller-QB history in football. West-coast timing tree: pass-friendlier than reputation (career 58.6% raw pass, >60% in 13 of 18 seasons; DAL 2023 PROE +3.0%, 4th) but slow-paced (37.7–42.7s between plays at his last stops), which caps team plays near ~60/gm → ~33 pass att/gm projected.
Job security: absolute. 1-yr up to $25M, $22M base fully guaranteed, playoff incentives tied to a 75% snap threshold; announced 2026 is his final season ("This is it" — ESPN, 2026-05-20). Beat coverage entering camp calls him "the unquestioned starter" (CBS Sports / Steel City Underground camp previews, July 2026, fetched 2026-07-08). QB2 is a contested Howard/Rudolph battle; R3 #76 Drew Allar is developmental — no bridge/benching timeline applies (qb.md §8).
O-line: 2025 unit ranked 3rd in PBWR, but do not carry it forward — Seumalo (best interior pass-protector) left for ARI, Broderick Jones is out indefinitely post-spinal-fusion, Fautanu flips to LT, and RT is a Cook-vs-R1-rookie-Iheanachor battle. Expect chips, quick game, and further aDOT compression early — a real issue for a 42-year-old's step-up room.
Weapons: upgraded on paper — Metcalf (19.0% TS, 33.0% AY share in 2025) plus Pittman via trade + 3-yr/$59M (123 hitch routes at 87.5% catch rate in 2025 — the cleanest McCarthy scheme fit), R2 slot Bernard, Freiermuth/Washington at TE. ~194 vacated targets re-allocated, not open.
Script: Vegas win total 8.5 (DraftKings, 2026-07-01) — neutral; no garbage-time volume thesis available.
Camp status: Steelers report to Latrobe 2026-07-28, first practice 07-29; no injury designation (Sleeper export, 2026-07-07); training-camp previews center him without health caveats (Newsweek/Yahoo, July 2026, fetched 2026-07-08).

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run on trigger)

Any camp/preseason health, arm-strength, or velocity concern (Latrobe opens 2026-07-29) → HOLD hardens to AVOID; at 43 there is no partial-strength version worth rostering.
He appears in 1QB mocks inside ~pick 140 (QB18 or earlier) → flips to FADE — never pay starter price for a no-rush QB2 median.
McCarthy cedes play-calling to Angelichio or any play-caller change → the PROE/volume upside vector voids; re-derive the attempt base.
RT battle unsettled into September or interior OL injury → protection thesis degrades; floor and games-risk both worsen.
League settings confirmed as 6pt pass TD or superflex/2QB → re-run under qb.md §9; in 2QB at 111.1 he is a live TARGET candidate (locked starts at a QB25-30 price).

Sources

data/stats/2025/ & data/stats/2024/ (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07): passing.csv (2025: 327/498, 3,322, 24/7, 29 sacks, 16 gm; 2024: 368/584, 3,897, 28/11, 17 gm), rushing.csv (21/61/1; 22/107/0), weekly.csv (EPA/dropback +0.051 and +0.018, PPG 14.13/15.09, weekly shape, QB rank tables — computed 2026-07-08), ngs_passing.csv (CPOE −1.37/−4.71, aDOT 5.95/6.72, TTT 2.59s, aggressiveness 14.1%), snap_counts.csv (wk 11 early exit, wk 12 missed), pbp_summary.csv (PIT 59.8 plays/gm, 61.75% pass)
data/team-profiles/PIT.md (built + verification pass 2026-07-07): McCarthy hire/play-calling confirmation, DAL 2023 PROE +3.0% (4th), career pass 58.6%, pace, contract ($22M gtd, final season — ESPN 2026-05-20), OL shuffle, weapons/vacated-target math, win total 8.5 (DK, 2026-07-01), QB2 battle, ~33 att/gm team projection
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv: Rodgers 111.1 (ffc-2qb); absent from ffc-ppr 1QB rows (23 QBs drafted through Daniel Jones 172.3) → mock-undrafted in 1QB
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json: age 42 (DOB 1983-12-02), 21 yrs exp, depth chart QB1, no injury status
PFF 2025 season data via web (fetched 2026-07-08): 68.7 overall grade (29th/43), 69.5 passing (22nd), 24 BTT / 14 TWP on 542 dropbacks (2.6%), TTT 2.59s fastest of 33 qualifiers, aDOT 6.4 (42nd/45), YPA 6.7 (27th), EPA/dropback 21st, 29 sacks fewest since 2020
Newsweek/Yahoo "Pittsburgh Steelers 2026 Training Camp Preview: Aaron Rodgers' Last Ride" + CBS Sports "Aaron Rodgers' last dance" + Steel City Underground QB camp preview (July 2026, fetched 2026-07-08): unquestioned starter, final season, camp 07-28→08-17 at Latrobe, Rudolph/Howard/Allar depth
Comp seasons (Rivers 2020, Brady 2022, Brees 2020): historical, pre-2026 assistant knowledge — directionally reliable, exact ranks UNVERIFIED