DAL
@NYG
WAS
BAL
@HOU
TB
@GB
@PHI
ARI
@IND
SF
TEN
@SEA
@LAR
JAXDak Prescott — QB, DAL — 2026
Verdict
FADE at ADP 58.8 (QB4, FFC PPR 1QB mocks, 2026-07-07). The market's case is fair: Dak just finished QB6 in 4pt scoring (313.8 REG pts, 18.46 PPG, nflverse 2026-07-07) on career-best efficiency (+4.45 CPOE, 2.7% TWP, 13.3% pressure-to-sack) atop the NFL's highest play volume, and every piece of that environment returns — same caller in year 2, all five OL starters, Lamb/Pickens/Ferguson intact. But the price is QB4 in round 5 for a pure pocket profile: 11.1 rush yds/gm ex-kneel, a 0.9% designed-run rate, 4 inside-5 carries, 2.3 rushing xTD — no Konami component at all, while Jayden Daniels (86.6), Jalen Hurts (93.1), Goff (90.1) and Stafford (100.9) go 2–4 rounds later. Why the market is wrong: it is paying forward a QB6 finish that was volume-driven by a franchise-worst defense (511 points allowed) that Dallas spent the whole offseason rebuilding (Gary, Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, two first-rounders). There is a real but small TD-regression tailwind — 2025 passing xTD ≈33–34 vs 30 actual (fine-bin yardline model, computed 2026-07-07) — worth roughly one extra TD (~4 pts) on the median, nowhere near enough to offset the volume headwind and the missing rushing floor; his ~1–2 PPG edge over the QB9–14 tier is not worth ~4 rounds of capital in a 1QB league. Fine player, wrong price — draft him gladly a round-plus later.
Bull case
- Volume king with full continuity: NFL-high play volume, 38.6 dropbacks/gm, 35.3 att/gm, league-most completions — and the caller, all five OL starters, and the entire target tree return. Nobody in the QB4–QB10 ADP band has a safer 4,300+-yard base.
- The efficiency is broad and QB-owned: +4.45 CPOE (elite), 2.5–2.7% TWP, 13.3% pressure-to-sack, 85.4 PFF passing grade (6th), 11% deep-ball rate with 8 deep TDs (2nd) — every sticky QB-owned trait pointed the right way in 2025.
- A real, now-verified TD-upside story: 2025 passing xTD ≈33–34 vs 30 actual (nflfastR fine-bin yardline model, computed 2026-07-07), matching the market-facing tell — 5th in RZ scoring attempts, only 16th in RZ TD% (FantasyPros, 2026). If conversion regresses up on similar volume, 34–35 pass TDs is in range — that's the ceiling row, and it's plausible.
Bear case
- Zero Konami component at a dual-threat price: 11.1 rush yds/gm, 0.9% designed-run rate, 4 inside-5 carries, 2.3 rushing xTD, rushing EPX #28 (PlayerProfiler). In 4pt scoring his weekly floor and ceiling are both pure passing — six-plus starts of ordinary output are baked in, and pick 58.8 buys none of the rushing insurance that Daniels/Hurts offer 30+ picks later.
- The volume thesis is self-liquidating: 2025's league-high dropback count was manufactured by a 511-points-allowed defense that no longer exists on paper. Even the team's own profile trims plays and shades run-ward; every step the rebuilt defense takes toward average removes the exact tailwind the QB4 price is paying for. The only regression cushion is ~1 TD of xTD upside (~4 pts) — a rounding error against a 14–25-attempt seasonal volume haircut.
- Age-33 with a fresh yellow flag, priced on a career-best year: season-ending hamstring in 2024, a limiting knee issue at June 2026 minicamp (he says he'll be "full go" for camp — CBS Sports, retrieved 2026-07-07), and a 2024→2025 efficiency swing the two-season rule says not to fully bank. His median (~309) beats Goff/Stafford/Baker (picks 90–121) by roughly 1–2 PPG — a rounding error against 3–5 rounds of roster capital in a 1QB league.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components (per scoring-framework §2), PPR (assumed), 4pt pass TD, −1 INT:
Passing (median): ~65 team plays/gm × ~59–60% pass rate ≈ 36 team att/gm (team profile projection, 2026-07-07; 2025 actual 36.7 team / 35.3 Dak att/gm) → ~586 attempts over 17 games (34.5/gm, shaded down for improved-defense scripts; his 4-season average is 34.6 per CBS Sports, 2026 outlook). YPA 7.5 (2025: 7.59 with full pass-catcher and OL continuity; small regression haircut) → ~4,400 yards. Pass TDs anchored to xTD: 2025 passing xTD ≈33–34 vs 30 actual (nflfastR fine-bin league TD-rate-by-yardline model, sacks excluded, computed 2026-07-07) — he mildly *under*-converted on elite RZ attempt volume, so a ~5.1% rate on the trimmed attempt base is the earned level → 30 TD. INTs from TWP: 2.7% (PFF) / 2.54% FTN INT-worthy — 2025's 10 INTs were in line with the worthy rate, no luck imbalance either way → 11 INT.
Rushing (projected separately — and it is nearly zero): 2.2 carries/gm ex-kneel (37 carries: 26 scrambles + 11 designed, nflfastR 2025 REG, recomputed/verified 2026-07-07) with an age-33 haircut → ~38 carries, ~150 yards; rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (≈2.1 in 2025, 0.84 in 2024; 5 sneaks charted, 4 inside-5 carries) → 2 rush TD. There is no designed package to carry forward and Javonte Williams owns the goal line (11 rush TD in 2025, team profile).
| Scenario | Games | Pass | Rush | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (p20) | 14 | 3,528 yds, 22 TD, 10 INT (age/knee games missed, TD rate at 4.5%, volume falls with better scripts) | 110 yds, 1 TD | ~234 |
| Median (p50) | 17 | 4,399 yds, 30 TD, 11 INT | 150 yds, 2 TD | ~309 |
| Ceiling (p80) | 17 | 4,774 yds, 35 TD, 12 INT (defense install-lags, shootout volume holds, RZ TD% regresses up to xTD) | 200 yds, 3 TD | ~355 |
Median ≈ 18.2 PPG — a QB6–9 season in 4pt scoring; the ceiling (~20.9 PPG) is roughly his 2025 plus the TD-upside case landing, and still shy of the dual-threat top tier (Allen 22.8 PPG in 2025). Games-played risk: medium — 17/17 in 2025 and near-zero rush exposure, but he turns 33 on 7/29/2026, lost 2024 to a season-ending hamstring (8 games), and carried a "sore knee" limitation at June 2026 minicamp (Schottenheimer: "nothing we're concerned about" — Athlon/Yahoo, June 2026; Sleeper still lists Questionable as of 2026-07-07).
Comps: Dak Prescott 2025 himself (600 att, 4,552-30-10, 177 rush → ~320 league pts — the base rate) · Kirk Cousins 2022 MIN (643 att, 4,547-29-14, ~97 rush yds → ~297 — the volume-pocket median) · Tua Tagovailoa 2023 (560 att, 4,624-29-14 — elite-weapons pocket shape) · Jared Goff 2024 (539 att, 4,629-37-12 → ~324 — the TD-spike ceiling shape) · Matthew Stafford 2021 (601 att, 4,886-41 → ~350 — full ceiling with a vertical WR duo). No external projections on disk (data/projections/ does not exist); web sanity check: consensus models ~4,349 yds / 31 TD (CBS Sports 2026 outlook, retrieved 2026-07-07) — my median agrees within noise.
Usage profile (qb.md §2/§5 tables)
2025 values REG-only, 17 games, computed from nflverse pbp/NGS/FTN (pulled/computed 2026-07-07) unless noted. 2024 = 8-game hamstring-shortened season.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/gm (ex-kneel) | 2.2 (37 att) | 1.4 (11) | Concern (<2.5) | 53 nflverse carries include 16 kneels |
| Designed rush rate | 11 designed ≈ 0.9% of 1,167 team plays | 5 ≈ 0.5% | Concern (<2%) | No QB-run package exists; PFF charts 176 of his 177 rush yds as scrambles |
| Scramble rate | 4.0% of 656 dropbacks (26) | 1.9% (6) | Good (3.5–6) | The only live rush signal — the fragile, coverage-dependent kind |
| Rush yds/gm (ex-kneel) | 11.1 | 7.0 | Concern (~10 line) | Zero games over 35 rush yds in 2025 |
| RZ rush share | 9.3% (8 of 86 team RZ carries ex-kneel: 5 designed + 3 scrambles) | 3.4% (2 of 58) | Concern (under the 10% Good line) | Javonte Williams owns the goal line (11 rush TD) |
| Inside-5 carries | 4 (5 sneaks charted, FTN) | 2 | Concern (well under 10) | Sneak-only role |
| Rushing xTD | ≈2.1 | 0.84 | Low (under 3) | Anchor rush TDs ≈ 2 |
| Dropbacks/gm | 38.6 (656) | 39.1 (313) | Elite (≥38) | Volume gate cleared with room |
| Pass att/gm | 35.3 (600) | 35.8 (286) | Elite (≥35) | Led NFL in completions (404) |
| Team PROE | −1.0% (nfelo, 2025) | — | Neutral (−1 to +3) | Caller intent is neutral; raw 63.2% pass rate was script-inflated (team profile) |
| xFP | UNVERIFIED (no provider export on disk); actual 18.46 PPG 4pt / PlayerProfiler 19.1 FPG (#9) | 14.6 PPG | QB1 fringe | Points tracked usage — no over/underperformance flag |
| Efficiency | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | +0.172 | −0.055 | Good, a hair under elite (≥0.18) | Computed from nflfastR pbp, 2026-07-07 |
| CPOE (NGS) | +4.45 | +1.94 | Elite (≥3.0) | QB-owned; but see two-season rule below |
| TWP rate | 2.7% (PFF) / 2.54% FTN INT-worthy | 4.7% / 4.89% | Good | 10 INTs matched the worthy rate — no luck read either way |
| Pressure-to-sack | 13.3% (PFF; 5th-best mid-season) | 21.4% | Elite (<14%) | QB-owned, sticky; 31 sacks on 656 dropbacks (4.7%) |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 11.0% (66 of 600) | 10.8% | Good (8–12) | 8 deep TDs, 2nd in NFL (FantasyPros); Pickens vertical channel is real |
| aDOT (NGS intended) | 8.28 | 7.82 | Good (7.5–9.5) | Healthy depth mix |
| Play-action rate | 26.0% (FTN join) | 16.6% | Good (22–28) | Schottenheimer install lifted it — caller-owned, carries with continuity |
| Pass TD vs xTD | 30 vs ≈33–34 | 11 vs 9.8 | Mild green flag | Under-converted elite RZ attempt volume in 2025 — worth ~+1 TD on the median, and it underwrites the ceiling row, not the price |
Two-season rule (scoring-framework §3): the 2024→2025 efficiency swing was enormous (EPA/db −0.055→+0.172; TWP 4.9%→2.5%; P2S 21.4%→13.3%). 2024 was an injury-marred outlier and 2023 Dak was also elite, so partial credit is fair — but a projection built on him repeating career-best marks at age 33 is a ceiling case, not a median.
Archetype (qb.md §10): pocket volume passer — "stable season-long total, capped weekly ceiling; worth starter price only in 6pt-TD or superflex formats." This league (assumed) is neither.
Context (from data/team-profiles/DAL.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller: Brian Schottenheimer (HC), year 2 calling, year 4 with Dak — the highest-continuity pairing available. 2025: league-most 65.9 plays/gm, 59.2% neutral dropback rate, −1.0 PROE, heavy motion, Coryell-family vertical PA. The volume, not a pass-rate tilt, is the fantasy engine — and the profile projects it down slightly (~65 plays, ~36 team att/gm) as the rebuilt defense removes shootout scripts. Schottenheimer's own history is run-tilted (career 53.9% pass); nothing in his tree suggests designed QB runs arrive.
- O-line: all 5 starters return; 12th in PBWR and RBWR; elite young interior (Smith/Beebe/Booker). One live variable: LT Tyler Guyton's health — a camp injury slides Tyler Smith outside and weakens the interior.
- Pass-catchers: zero meaningful turnover (~42 vacated targets). Lamb (slot/movement), Pickens (X, franchise-tagged 4/29/2026, no extension talks before 7/15 — nfl.com), Ferguson (102 targets). Continuity check passes fully — believe the 7.59 YPA environment.
- Script: Vegas win total 8.5 (FD/DK; BetMGM 9.5), as-of 2026-07-07 — neutral lean, money toward the Over. The 2025 volume tailwind (worst-in-franchise-history defense) is the specific thing the front office attacked: Rashan Gary, Quinnen Williams, Kenny Clark, R1.11 Downs, R1.23 Lawrence. First-year DC means install drag early, but the directional bet is fewer trailing scripts.
- Job security: absolute — 4yr/$240M through 2028, backups Howell/Milton (tier C). No benching-risk discount anywhere; also no rushing contingency value.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- League scoring confirmed 6pt pass TD, or superflex/2QB added → 30 TDs gain ~60 pts / scarcity repricing; verdict likely moves to HOLD or better.
- ADP drifts past ~75 (behind Mahomes/Herbert, round 7 territory) → the price objection dissolves; likely HOLD, possibly TARGET if it reaches the QB8+ range.
- Knee escalation: any procedure, camp absence beyond load management, or a new soft-tissue entry (Sleeper Questionable flag persisting into camp) → games risk to high, floor drops.
- Pickens departs or holds out: Dallas already ended extension talks (April 2026) and he's playing on the signed $27.3M tag — the live tripwire is a camp hold-in, midseason trade chatter, or a deadline deal shipping him out (team-profile watch item) → the 7.5 YPA and deep-TD channel re-derive downward.
- Guyton lost at LT in camp → Tyler Smith kicks outside, interior weakens, pressure profile worsens — efficiency haircut.
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/— passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_passing.csv, ftn_charting.csv, pbp_summary.csv, snap_counts.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07): counting stats, NGS CPOE/aDOT/time-to-throw, weekly logs, QB fantasy ranks (REG-only, 4pt/−2 INT basis, re-scored to league −1 INT where stated)- nflfastR play-by-play 2024–2025 via nflreadpy
load_pbp(computed and independently re-verified 2026-07-07): EPA/dropback (+0.172 on 656 dropbacks / −0.055 on 313), designed-vs-scramble split (2025: 11 designed / 26 scrambles / 16 kneels; 2024: 5/6/2), RZ carries ex-kneel (2025: 8 of 86 team — 5 designed + 3 scrambles; 2024: 2 of 58), inside-5 carries (4 / 2), rushing xTD (≈2.1 / 0.84) and passing xTD (≈33–34 vs 30 actual in 2025; 9.8 vs 11 in 2024 — fine-bin league TD-rate-by-yardline model, sacks excluded), deep-ball rate (66 of 603 no-sack attempts, 10.9–11.0%) - FTN charting × pbp play-ID join (computed 2026-07-07): INT-worthy rate 2.54% (2025) / 4.89% (2024), play-action 26.0% / 16.6%, QB sneaks 5 / 4
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— ADP 58.8, QB4 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07); QB ladder context (Allen 27.8, Burrow 47.6, Lamar 53.0, Maye 65.2, Mahomes 77.1, Daniels 86.6, Goff 90.1, Hurts 93.1, Stafford 100.9)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 32 (DOB 1993-07-29; 33 on 7/29/2026), 10 years exp, Mississippi State, injury_status Questionabledata/team-profiles/DAL.md(built 2026-07-07) — Schottenheimer year-2 continuity, PROE −1.0/plays 65.9, OL returning 5/5 + PBWR/RBWR 12th, vacated-target math (~42), Vegas 8.5–9.5, defensive rebuild detail, QB2 battle, pass-attempt projection ~36/gm- PFF (pff.com player page + "most overlooked QB of 2025", retrieved 2026-07-07): TWP 2.7% 2025 vs 4.7% 2024; pressure-to-sack 13.3% vs 21.4%; 85.4 passing grade (6th); 176 scramble yards; 659 dropbacks, aDOT 8.6, TTT 2.78
- FantasyPros / CBS Sports 2026 outlooks (retrieved 2026-07-07): deep-ball 10.2% (12th) with 8 TDs (2nd); 5.0% TD rate; DAL 5th in RZ scoring attempts, 16th in RZ TD%; model projection 4,349 yds / 31 TD; 4-season 34.6 att/gm
- Athlon Sports / Yahoo Sports / Yardbarker (June 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07): minicamp sore knee (missed day 1 of 6/16–18 minicamp, limited in team drills), Schottenheimer "nothing we're concerned about"; CBS Sports (retrieved 2026-07-07): Dak "healthy as I'll be," plans to be "full go" for training camp
- nfl.com / Yahoo Sports (April 2026, retrieved 2026-07-07): Cowboys will not negotiate a Pickens extension before the 7/15 tag deadline; Pickens signed the $27.3M tag 4/30/2026 — playing 2026 on the tag (tripwire #4 is trade/holdout chatter, not the deadline itself)
- PlayerProfiler (retrieved 2026-07-07): 19.1 FPG (#9), rushing EPX 84.1 (#28)
- League scoring:
methodology/league-settings.mdplaceholders — assumed full PPR, 4pt pass TD, −1 INT, 1QB, no TE premium (unconfirmed; tripwire #1) - No provider xFP export on disk (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler xFP) — marked UNVERIFIED; no
data/projections/directory — external sanity check via web only