Philadelphia Eagles DST — 2026 evaluation
Verdict
TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 126.3 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07) — DST6 by ADP, a round-11 pick in a 12-team league, costing only a bench dart: Jordan Mason (126.7), Dallas Goedert (128.9), Jonathon Brooks (129.6), Mark Andrews (130.0), Jauan Jennings (130.7). The market's case is fair: Philadelphia finished DST7 in 2025 (135 pts, FantasyPros) on a mid sack total (42, 12th; sack rate 6.69%, 15th) with an ESPN pass-rush win rate of just 35% (20th) — a coverage-carried unit whose fantasy line looks priced about right at DST6. **Why the market is wrong: it has ordered the DST board by last year's finishes, and PHI is the only unit in the top six whose luck columns point *up* rather than down** — pressure-to-sack conversion ran ~20.3% (below the ~21% mean) under an 8th-ranked pressure rate generated on the NFL's *lowest* blitz rate (19.4%, 31st), takeaways were already at base rate (1.24/gm), and only 3 defensive/ST TDs — nothing in the 135-point season needs regressing down, while every DST priced ahead of it carries a regression trap (SEA's TD-built 179, DEN's 32% conversion) or a materially worse September card (DEN @KC 22.5 implied, HOU vs BUF 23.5, NE @SEA 24.0, LAR in Melbourne). Add the premium edge the profile was missing (Greenard, 12 sacks in 2024, 4yr/~$98–100M) to Fangio year 3 with an elite CB room, and PHI's opening two weeks — home vs WAS (20.5 posted implied) then @TEN against Cam Ward's league-worst 9.2% sack rate — are the most startable of any drafted DST. Confidence is medium, not high: Greenard is rehabbing shoulder surgery (no team drills at June minicamp), the rush without him grades mid by PRWR, and weeks 3–5 (@CHI, LAR, London) are a genuine bench/churn stretch.
Bull case
- The only top-6-priced DST with upside regression: conversion 20.3% (below the ~21% mean) under a top-8 pressure rate generated at the league's lowest blitz rate; takeaways already sitting at base rate (1.24/gm, vs 1.59 the year before); just 3 def/ST TDs in 2025. The DST7 finish was earned with zero luck inflation — and the final two months (4th pressure rate, 1st opp scoring rate, 9.4 fpts/gm) were driven by ascending years-1-2 players, not departing veterans.
- The front office bought the exact missing metric: PRWR 20th was the profile's one talent gap, and PHI paid two R3s plus ~$98–100M for Greenard (12 sacks, 2024) to fix it — layered onto Fangio year 3, 2nd-most man coverage, a Mitchell/DeJean/Woolen room drawing elite camp reviews, and the NFL's 2nd-fewest points allowed across 2024–25. Continuity plus premium-edge arrival is dst.md §9's double green flag.
- You're buying the best startable September open on the board at bench-dart cost: home vs WAS at a posted 20.5 implied, then the single juiciest early matchup in football (@TEN, Cam Ward's 9.2% sack rate on a 6.5-win offense), backed by a 10.5-win-total offense protecting the brackets — for pick 126, which otherwise buys Jordan Mason or Jonathon Brooks.
Bear case
- Without a healthy Greenard this is a coverage unit wearing a pass-rush costume: PRWR 35% (20th), sack rate 15th two straight years, and the 8th-ranked pressure rate is partly manufactured by elite CBs extending plays — and Greenard is rehabbing shoulder surgery, held out of all team drills at June minicamp, coming off a 3-sack injury year. If the shoulder lingers, the sack bump evaporates and the median slides toward 120.
- The mid-schedule cliff arrives fast: @CHI (No. 1 pass-block line, Williams 4.1%/1.2%), home vs MVP Stafford (3.7%/1.3%), then London — a round-11 pick that likely benches or churns 3 of weeks 3–5, right when waiver streaming takes over anyway.
- The margin is thin in a (presumed) non-inflated league: median 132 clears 2025's DST12 (118) by under 1 PPG; JAX at 129.9 offers a better week 1, MIN at 135.4 a better season-long median, and DET at 139.1 covers week 1 for free — the pick is defensible, not necessary.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, standard DST scoring (assumed table above), 17 games:
| Component | Floor (p20) | Median | Ceiling (p80) | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opp. dropbacks | ~620 | ~635 | ~650 | 2025: ~628 (42 sacks ÷ 6.69% — def_summary, pulled 2026-07-07); 10.5 win total (BetMGM, 2026-07-07) sustains trailing-opponent pass volume |
| Sack rate → sacks | 6.0% → 37 | 7.0% → 44 | 8.0% → 52 | Two-year sack rate 6.57%/6.69% (both 15th) under 8th-ranked pressure (33.0% charting) and sub-mean 20.3% conversion — conversion regresses *up*; Greenard adds a 2–4 pt pressure-rate claim (dst.md §3), credited ~half for the shoulder rehab |
| Takeaways → pts | 17 → 34 | 22 → 44 | 26 → 52 | 2025: 21 (1.24/gm, rank 17; lg mean 1.15) regressed 50% toward 1.3 ≈ 1.27/gm ≈ 22 — essentially no downside regression owed; man 43.5% (2nd) + Mitchell/DeJean/Woolen support the upper half; low-INT QBs weeks 3–4 (Williams 1.2%, Stafford 1.3%) cap the ceiling |
| Def/return TDs → pts | 1 → 6 | 2 → 12 | 3 → 18 | Base rate 1.5–2.5 per dst.md §1 (2025 actual: 1 def + 2 ST — FantasyPros, fetched 2026-07-07) |
| PA/gm → bracket pts | ~21 → 24 | ~19.3 → 31 | ~17.5 → 39 | 2025: 19.12 (5th) realized ~1.94 bracket pts/gm; 2024: 17.82 (2nd). Fangio continuity + good own offense hold it; first-time-OC install drag (team profile: stability low) is the floor-side drag |
| Safeties | 0 | 1 → 2 | 1 → 2 | League base rate (2025 actual: 0) |
| Season total | ~100 (5.9/gm) | ~132 (7.8/gm) | ~163 (9.6/gm) | Floor ≈ DST18–20 (2025: DET 97 = DST20); median ≈ DST5–7 (2025 scale: DST5 = 136, DST7 = 135, DST10 = 127); ceiling ≈ DST2 (2025 HOU = 164) |
Games/startability risk: medium. Drivers: (1) Greenard's surgically repaired shoulder — the sack-bump thesis is attached to a player who hadn't practiced team drills as of June minicamp; (2) a built-in weeks 3–5 cliff (@CHI's No. 1 pass-blocking line on MNF, MVP Stafford at home, London vs JAX) that forces bench/churn decisions right after the strong open; (3) modest edge depth behind Greenard/Smith/Hunt if Brandon Graham (status UNVERIFIED) doesn't return.
Comps (profile: top-8 pressure on a low blitz, elite coverage, good offense attachment, ~42–46 sacks / ~21–24 TO / ~18–19.5 PA):
- PHI 2025 itself — 42 sacks (6.69%), 21 TO, 19.12 PA/gm, 3 TDs → DST7 (135, FantasyPros). The continuity baseline: the median assumes roughly this again, with the Greenard bump offsetting the TD haircut (3 → 2).
- PHI 2024 — 41 sacks (6.57%), 27 TO (1.59/gm, rank 6), 17.82 PA/gm (2nd), EPA −0.0855 (3rd) → DST7, 7.9 PPG (NBC Sports tiered rankings, via search 2026-07-07). The takeaway-year shape — same engine, bounce in the TO column.
- LAC 2024 (Minter yr 1) — 46 sacks (7.06%), 22 TO, 17.71 PA/gm (def_summary 2024): elite coverage + good-not-elite rush + decent offense → the median shape (~DST6–8).
- HOU 2025 — 164 pts (DST2): what an elite-coverage unit with a real edge presence cashes when brackets and takeaways align — the ceiling comp if Greenard is right.
- NO 2025 — 45 sacks, 21 TO, 22.5 PA/gm → DST12 (118): the floor shape if the first-time-OC offense bleeds short fields and the brackets slip.
Signal core (dst.md §2)
| Metric | 2024 | 2025 | Band / read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure rate | UNVERIFIED | 33.0%, rank 8/32 (charting defn, nflverse participation via team profile, pulled 2026-07-07; PFR-defn UNVERIFIED); last 2 months of 2025: 4th (FantasyLife, late-2025, via search 2026-07-07) | Good-to-elite by rank — and trending up late with ascending young players (see below) |
| Sack rate | 6.57%, 15th (41 — def_summary 2024) | 6.69%, 15th (42 — def_summary 2025) | Mid band (good starts 6.5%) — stable two years; the market prices this column |
| PRWR (ESPN, team) | UNVERIFIED | 35%, rank 20th (ESPN win rates, through Wk 18, 2026-01-06, fetched 2026-07-07) | Concern band (<38) — the one soft leg: pressure rank is partly coverage-manufactured; Greenard targets exactly this |
| Pressure→sack conversion | UNVERIFIED | ~20.3% (6.69 ÷ 33.0, charting basis, computed) | At/below the ~21% mean — the 2×2 read: average sacks on good pressure = mild buy; no conversion luck to give back |
| Takeaways/gm | 1.59 (27: 13 INT/14 FR, rank 6) | 1.24 (21: 12 INT/9 FR, rank 17; lg mean 1.15 — def_summary) | Already regressed to base rate in 2025 — projecting ~22 requires no luck; 2024 shows the room's real ceiling |
| Blitz rate / coverage | UNVERIFIED | 19.4% (31st; Sharp: 18.5%, 32nd); man 43.5% (2nd), Cover-1 35.1% (nflverse participation via team profile) | <20% blitz "needs an elite 4-man rush" (dst.md §2) — PRWR says it wasn't quite that in 2025; the Greenard trade is the front office agreeing |
| Opp. implied PPG, wks 1–4 | — | 20.5 (WAS, posted — DK 2026-05-15) / est. ≤18 @TEN (UNVERIFIED) / est. ~23 @CHI (UNVERIFIED) / est. ~23–24 LAR (UNVERIFIED) | Split card — weeks 1–2 good-to-premium, weeks 3–4 concern-band; per §4 you can stream from week 3, so the pick buys the good half |
| Base-rate xFP | — | rebuilt ≈ 132 std pts ≈ DST5–7 | Top-12 range at a DST6 price — mild positive gap, carried by the early card |
| EPA/play allowed | −0.0855, 3rd | −0.0501, 9th (def_summary) | Very good both years; 2nd-fewest points allowed in the NFL across 2024–25 combined (NBCSP, 2026-02, via team profile) |
| PA/gm | 17.82, 2nd | 19.12, 5th (def_summary) | Elite and legitimately earned — good own offense, no TD-luck inflation |
Late-season surge note (dst.md §2): over the final two months of 2025 PHI ranked 4th in pressure rate, 1st in opponents' scoring rate, and 3rd in EPA/play allowed, averaging 9.4 DST pts/gm (FantasyLife DST rankings, late-2025, via search 2026-07-07). It ties to personnel, not luck: the sack table is ascending youth — Jalyx Hunt 6.5, Moro Ojomo 6.0, Jordan Davis 4.5, Jalen Carter 4.0 (weekly.csv 2025, pulled 2026-07-07) — plus year-2 ramps coming for R1 LB Jihaad Campbell and S Andrew Mukuba. Per methodology, a personnel-tied surge outweighs the full-season rate; it's why the median credits 7.0% sack rate, not 6.7%.
Context (team profile: data/team-profiles/PHI.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Continuity green flag, textbook version: Vic Fangio confirmed back for year 3 (
dc_new: false— Inquirer/NBCSP, 2026-02-04); 4-down nickel, two-high shell, league-highest light-box rate (60.1%, Sharp), 2nd-most man coverage (43.5%) behind the league's best young CB room — Quinyon Mitchell (travels/shadows WR1s; 41.6% comp allowed, best in NFL over 3 yrs per PFF via profile) and Cooper DeJean both in year 3, with Tariq Woolen (1yr/up to $15M) the minicamp star ("hype train is real," picked off Hurts in coverage on Goedert — NBCSP minicamp observations, June 2026; Fangio publicly praised him). - Edge churn nets positive on paper, with a health asterisk: IN — Jonathan Greenard via draft-day trade from MIN + 4-yr ~$98–100M ($50M gtd; ESPN/CBS 2026-04-25, NBCSP June 2026), slotting as the top-of-rotation edge ahead of Nolan Smith and Jalyx Hunt (NBCSP positional preview, June 2026); Arnold Ebiketie (1yr/up to $7.3M). OUT — Jaelan Phillips (CAR, 4/$120M), Nakobe Dean (LV), Za'Darius Smith (retired mid-2025); Brandon Graham's 17th-season decision UNVERIFIED (still deliberating per Yahoo/philadelphiaeagles.com, spring 2026). Departed sack production is only 7.5–10.5 of 42; ~75–82% returns *before* Greenard. The asterisk: Greenard is coming off shoulder surgery and did individual drills only at June minicamp (SI/NBCSP, June 2026) — his 2025 was already injury-marred (3.0 sacks in 12 games vs 12.0 in 2024 — weekly.csv). The +2–4 pt pressure claim is real but health-gated; the projection credits about half.
- Own offense (§5 multiplier): good, with an install flag. Win total 10.5 (BetMGM, O +120/U −145, as-of 2026-07-07) — top-tier script lean; all 5 OL starters return; Hurts locked in. But the profile's stability is low: first-time OC/play-caller Sean Mannion and a rebuilt WR room (A.J. Brown traded to NE) create early short-field risk if the install drags — the main pressure on the floor's PA brackets in September.
- Market context: DST board — SEA 98.2, DEN 100.8, LAR 104.6, HOU 107.0, NE 118.5, PHI 126.3 (DST6), JAX 129.9, MIN 135.4, DET 139.1 (FFC, 2026-07-07). Every unit priced ahead of PHI graded FADE in this system's evals (denver/los-angeles-rams/houston/new-england dst evals, 2026-07-07) — PHI is the first defensible price on the board.
Early-season streaming picture (weeks 1–6) — handoff for /weekly-edge
Schedule: NBC Sports Philadelphia schedule-release article (May 2026, verified 2026-07-07); bye week 10. Week 1 line posted (DraftKings via FOX Sports, 2026-05-15); weeks 2–6 implied totals are win-total/wk-1-line-based estimates, UNVERIFIED as lines. QB rates from data/stats/2025/passing.csv (sack rate = sacks ÷ (att + sacks); INT rate = INT ÷ att).
| Wk | Opp | Venue | Line / opp implied | Opp QB (2025 sack / INT rate) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs WAS | Home | PHI −5.5, O/U 46.5 (DK, 2026-05-15) → WAS implied 20.5 | Jayden Daniels (8.7% / 1.6%, 7-gm 2025 — three injuries) | Start — a hair over the ≤20 anchor but home, vs a first-time WAS play-caller installing a new offense and a scramble-heavy QB; best posted wk-1 spot among top-6 priced DSTs |
| 2 | @ TEN | Road | no line; TEN wk-1 implied 21.25 vs NYJ (DK) → vs PHI est. ≤18, UNVERIFIED | Cam Ward (9.2% / 1.3%; 55 sacks, most in NFL 2025) | Premium — the week the pick buys. League's most-sacked QB, 6.5-win offense (BetMGM); road is the only missing criterion |
| 3 | @ CHI (MNF) | Road | est. ~23, UNVERIFIED (CHI win total 9.5; CHI wk-1 implied 23.5) | Caleb Williams (4.1% / 1.2%) | Stream away — No. 1 pass-blocking line (ESPN PBWR via minnesota-vikings-dst eval), low-sack low-INT QB, road primetime |
| 4 | vs LAR | Home | est. ~23–24, UNVERIFIED (LAR win total 11.5, DK) | Matthew Stafford (3.7% / 1.3%; reigning MVP) | Likely bench — Stafford neither takes sacks nor throws picks; home only keeps it from Avoid |
| 5 | @ JAX (London) | Neutral | est. ~21–22, UNVERIFIED (JAX win total 9.5) | Trevor Lawrence (6.8% / 2.1%) | Coin flip — real sack/INT equity, but neutral-site travel week |
| 6 | vs CAR | Home | est. ~18.5–19.5, UNVERIFIED (CAR win total 7.5 DK / 6.5 BetMGM) | Bryce Young (5.3% / 2.3%) | Re-entry week — good home spot before the wk-7 DAL primetime |
Likely-available pivots (FFC 2026-07-07): JAX (129.9) — premium wk-1 (home vs CLE, est. implied ≤18, sack-prone QB room) if you'd rather pay 3 picks later for week 1 and stream sooner (season-long verdict there: FADE on takeaway regression). MIN (135.4, TARGET) — better season-long value (median 136) but a bad weeks 1–2 card (GB 23.0 implied, @CHI); the clean pairing is stream-early-then-MIN. DET (139.1) opens home vs NO — the board's cleanest free week-1 stream if you punt DST entirely. CHI (166.0) — wk-4 home vs NYJ (18.5 implied) is a scheduled pivot for exactly the week PHI benches vs LAR.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- League DST table gets filled in — if it lands sack/turnover-inflated (sacks ≥1.5, TO ≥3, bracket span ≥12; DST1−DST12 ≥2.5 PPG re-scored), a top-8 pressure profile with this early card strengthens toward a firm TARGET/priority; if steep points-allowed brackets, PHI's good-offense attachment helps but the weeks 3–4 card hurts more.
- Greenard not a full camp participant by mid-August, or any shoulder setback — removes the sack-bump leg; verdict drops to HOLD at this price.
- ADP rises inside ~110 (round 9, top-4 DST territory) — flips to FADE per dst.md §10: startable skill players still exist there and the inflation test hasn't passed.
- Week 1 WAS implied total moves above ~22 (Daniels camp leap / PHI line collapse) — the posted anchor of the early card weakens; re-check vs JAX/DET pivots.
- Edge-depth erosion: Brandon Graham retires AND a Nolan Smith/Jalyx Hunt camp injury — the rotation behind Greenard thins to Ebiketie/Uche-tier; pressure floor drops a band.
Sources
data/stats/2025/def_summary.csv,data/stats/2024/def_summary.csv— nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (2025: 42 sacks/6.69% 15th, 21 TO rank 17 [12 INT/9 FR], PA 19.12 5th, EPA −0.0501 9th; 2024: 41 sacks/6.57% 15th, 27 TO rank 6 [13 INT/14 FR], PA 17.82 2nd, EPA −0.0855 3rd; league TO means 1.15/1.21 computed across 32 teams)data/stats/2025/weekly.csv— nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07 (PHI sack table: Hunt 6.5, Ojomo 6.0, Davis 4.5, Carter 4.0, Dean 4.0, Baun 3.5, N. Smith 3.0, Graham 3.0, Phillips 2.0, Z. Smith 1.5; Greenard 2024: 12.0 sacks / 2025: 3.0 in 12 games)data/stats/2025/passing.csv— nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07 (opponent QB rates: Daniels 8.7%/1.6% [7 gm], Ward 9.2%/1.3% [55 sacks], Williams 4.1%/1.2%, Stafford 3.7%/1.3%, Lawrence 6.8%/2.1%, Young 5.3%/2.3%)data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 (PHI DST 126.3 = DST6; board SEA 98.2 → DET 139.1; skill range 119.8–135.6: Mason 126.7, Goedert 128.9, Brooks 129.6, Andrews 130.0, Jennings 130.7)data/team-profiles/PHI.md— built 2026-07-07 (Fangio yr 3 confirmed Inquirer/NBCSP 2026-02-04; blitz 19.4% 31st / man 43.5% 2nd / charting pressure 33.0% 8th from nflverse participation; Greenard trade + ext ESPN/CBS 2026-04-25; Phillips to CAR, Dean to LV, Woolen 1/$15M; Mitchell shadow per Inquirer 2025-10-03/PFF; win total 10.5 BetMGM as-of 2026-07-07; Mannion first-time OC, stability low; OL 5/5 returning, PBWR 17th)- ESPN 2025 win-rate rankings (fetched 2026-07-07, through Wk 18 / 2026-01-06): PHI team PRWR 35%, rank 20th (leaders: MIN/CLE 46%, DEN 45%)
- FantasyPros 2025 NFL DST statistics (fetched 2026-07-07): PHI DST7, 135.0 pts — 42 sacks, 12 INT, 9 FR, 1 def TD, 2 ST TD, 0 safeties; scale: SEA DST1 179, HOU 164, JAX 144, DEN 143, LAR/MIN 136, DST12 NO 118
- FantasyLife DST rankings article (late-2025 season, via search 2026-07-07): PHI final two months — 9.4 fpts/gm, 1st opp scoring rate, 3rd EPA/play, 4th pressure rate; NBC Sports tiered DST rankings (2025 preseason, via search 2026-07-07): PHI 2024 = DST7, 7.9 PPG
- NBC Sports Philadelphia schedule release (May 2026, verified 2026-07-07): wks 1–8 = WAS, @TEN, @CHI (MNF), LAR, @JAX (London), CAR, DAL (SNF), @WAS; bye wk 10
- FOX Sports "2026 NFL Odds Week 1" (DraftKings lines, 2026-05-15, fetched 2026-07-07): PHI −5.5 / O/U 46.5 vs WAS → WAS implied 20.5; TEN −3/39.5 vs NYJ → TEN wk-1 implied 21.25; CHI −2.5/44.5 → 23.5; LAR −2.5/48.5 (Melbourne) → 25.5
- NBCSP minicamp observations + positional preview / SI Eagles minicamp day 1 (June 2026, via search 2026-07-07): Greenard shoulder surgery, individual drills only, tops edge rotation over N. Smith/Hunt; Woolen "hype train," Fangio praise, INT of Hurts
- philadelphiaeagles.com / Yahoo / On Pattison (Dec 2025–spring 2026, via search 2026-07-07): Brandon Graham 17th-season decision open — UNVERIFIED for 2026
- Opponent team profiles (
data/team-profiles/WAS.md,TEN.md,CHI.md,LAR.md,JAX.md,CAR.md, all 2026-07-07): win totals — WAS 7.5 (BetMGM/DK), TEN 6.5 (BetMGM), CHI 9.5 (BetMGM/DK), LAR 11.5 (DK/FD), JAX 9.5 (BetMGM 2026-05-20), CAR 7.5 DK / 6.5 BetMGM; QB/OC context (Daniels' new play-caller; Ward regime; Williams yr-2 Ben Johnson) - Sibling evals (2026-07-07): denver-broncos-dst.md (standard-table + inflation-test framing, DEN wk-1 card), minnesota-vikings-dst.md (skill-based spread ~1.76 PPG; CHI No. 1 PBWR; MIN TARGET 135.4), jacksonville-jaguars-dst.md (JAX wk-1 premium vs CLE), detroit-lions-dst.md (DET home-NO wk-1 stream), los-angeles-rams-dst.md / houston-texans-dst.md / new-england-patriots-dst.md (top-6 price comparisons — all FADE)