Baltimore Ravens

BAL — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Regime reset: John Harbaugh fired 2026-01-06 after an 8-9 season (1-5 start, wild-card loss to CIN); Jesse Minter (ex-LAC DC) hired HC 2026-01-22; staff finalized 2026-02-13 (Baltimore Banner, 2026-02). OC Todd Monken left to be Browns HC (2026-01-28); DC Zach Orr left for Seattle. Both coordinators, the play-caller, AND the defensive signal-caller are new. Coaching-change protocol (§9) and new-DC protocol (§8) both run below.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Declan Doyle, OC — first-time play-caller (confirmed — baltimoreravens.com "Declan Doyle's Vision for the Ravens Offense" 2026-02-18; NFL.com, ESPN June 2026: "youngest play-caller in the NFL"). HC Minter calls the defense, not the offense.
• Tenure with team: year 1 (hired Feb 2026) · Prior relationship with QB1: none before the interview process (baltimoreravens.com, 2026-02-18)

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years): Doyle has zero play-calling history — §9 first-time-caller protocol: mentor tree used as a weak prior, everything low-confidence.

Read: Doyle is a Ben Johnson / Sean Payton tree product whose stated pillars are "physical, detailed, and explosive" — run game as the foundation, hunting explosive plays off it, no rigid run/pass split ("morph" by matchup) (baltimoreravens.com, 2026-02-18). Expect a Johnson-flavored install: under-center, heavy motion/shifts, PA-heavy explosive-hunting married to a Henry/Lamar run game — the closest thing to Greg Roman volume shape with Monken-era passing concepts layered in. §9 install drag applies: pace and motion likely below the mentor baseline early, drifting toward it by midseason; every 2025 designed-touch/scheme role is void until re-established. All tendencies low-confidence until real 2026 data exists.

QB situation

• QB1: Lamar Jackson (5yr/$260M through 2027; restructured March 2026 for ~$40M cap room, void year added to 2030 — baltimoreravens.com/ESPN, March 2026; extension unresolved, no-tag + no-trade clauses per ESPN 2026 offseason coverage). Benching risk: none. Trade noise exists (exec speculation, May 2026) but he is the 2026 starter. Games-risk medium: 13 games in 2025 (hamstring Wks 5–7, back in December — NFL.com 2025; nflverse 2025).
• Backup: Tyler Huntley — re-signed 2yr/$5M (ESPN FA tracker, March 2026) — tier B (functional starter, 52/67, 426 yds in 5 games 2025 — nflverse; offense compresses: −aDOT, more designed run/screens). Cooper Rush departed.
• Contingency line: If Lamar misses time: Huntley, tier B — pass rate drops ~4–5 pts, aDOT compresses, Flowers survives on schemed/short volume but loses the deep-shot ceiling, Bateman/deep threats hurt most, Henry becomes the entire offense in positive scripts. 2025 evidence: team went 3-3 without Jackson incl. playoff loss (FOX/StatMuse, Jan 2026).

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: LT Ronnie Stanley · LG John Simpson (FA, 3yr/$30M) · C Danny Pinter (contested — vs Gwyn/Bullock; Linderbaum's replacement) · RG Olaivavega "Vega" Ioane (ROOKIE, 1.14) · RT Roger Rosengarten (baltimoreravens.com post-draft depth chart + SI/Wolf Sports previews, April–June 2026). Ioane/Simpson could swap guard sides (both career LGs).
• Interior vs edge: Tackles are the strength (Rosengarten 2nd, Stanley 5th in OT PBWR 2025 — ESPN 2026-01-06); interior is the risk — Linderbaum (4th in IOL PBWR) left for LV, replaced by a journeyman C (Pinter, 10 career starts) flanked by a rookie R1 guard. §4 flags: rookie interior starter = early-season pressure spikes; interior pressure kills the deep game and QB efficiency — temper deep-aDOT expectations Weeks 1–4 even though the guard talent upgrade (Ioane allowed 2 sacks on 1,106 college pass-block snaps — ESPN draft, 2026-04) should make this a net-positive unit by midseason.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: projected gap/duo-leaning with zone mixed — Doyle's stated run-game-first "move the line of scrimmage" identity plus a 1.14 mauler guard and Derrick Henry points downhill/duo (baltimoreravens.com 2026-02-18; draft profile 2026-04). Fits: big downhill backs (Henry ideal); RB profiles that fit: goal-line hammers, contact-balance grinders. Low confidence until 2026 film.
• Pass-game family: Johnson/Payton hybrid — under-center PA, heavy motion, explosive-hunting intermediate/deep shots off run action (Ben Johnson mentor prior; Sun-Times 2025-11-26). Implications: mid-to-high aDOT off PA, schemed slot/YAC touches for Flowers, condensed sets that help sub-190 receivers, TE red-zone equity healthy. First-year install = expect simpler early.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries, nflverse):

• WR DeAndre Hopkins — 39 tgt / 0 car (unsigned, not expected back — heavy.com/SI, June 2026)
• TE Isaiah Likely — 36 / 0 (NYG, 3yr/$40M — giants.com, 2026-03-09)
• TE Charlie Kolar — 15 / 0 (LAC — ESPN FA tracker, March 2026)
• RB Keaton Mitchell — 12 / 59 (LAC — Wolf Sports/ESPN, March 2026)
• QB Cooper Rush — 0 / 4 (departed — Wolf Sports, 2026)
• P Jordan Stout (NYG); FB Patrick Ricard (2 tgt / 1 car) not on 2026 depth chart — status UNVERIFIED

Vacated targets: ~102 of 407 team targets (~25%) · Vacated carries: ~63 (nflverse 2025 + moves above). No arriving target claim above Round 3 → genuine feeding opportunity for incumbents Flowers/Andrews/Bateman.

Arrivals (claim):

• WR Ja'Kobi Lane — draft 3.80 (USC; red-zone/contested X profile — ESPN draft, 2026-04)
• WR Elijah Sarratt — draft 4.115 (Indiana; contested-catch X, led FBS 15 rec TD 2025)
• TE Matthew Hibner — draft 4.133 (traded up: R5 + 2027 R6 — ESPN draft, 2026-04)
• TE Durham Smythe — FA, blocking TE (terms unlisted); TE Josh Cuevas — draft 5.173, blocker
• RB Adam Randall — draft 5.174 (Clemson, 6'3" 232; competes for RB3)

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

Henry claims ~1–1.5 tgt/g behind these (21 tgt 2025). Slot note for evals: Flowers is the projected primary slot — 41.7% slot rate in 2024, trending up (PFF/PlayerProfiler via web, 2025), and the 2026 room around him (Bateman, Lane, Sarratt, Walker) is all big-bodied outside profiles; Wester is a roster-bubble returner.

RB committee split: Henry: early-down + goal-line workhorse (307 car, 60.6% share, 16 rush TD 2025 — nflverse; signed through 2027) · Hill: passing downs · Ali vs Randall (R5): RB3, contested (team depth chart, 2026-04). Vacated Mitchell carries (~59) flow to the winner + Henry.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 11.5 (DraftKings, over +115/under −140, as of 2026-07-01 — CBS Sports; opened 10.5 in Feb, steamed up); −115 to win AFC North, +470 AFC favorite → script lean: positive
• Projected plays/game: ~62 (2025 actual 58.5 — nflverse pbp_summary; league avg ~63; +health/competence rebound, − run-lean clock drain and §9 install drag) · Projected pass rate: ~53% of plays are dropbacks (2025: 53.6% with 8 backup-QB starts; Doyle run-first identity + positive script offsets Lamar health rebound)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~28 · rush attempts/game: ~30 (box-score, incl. Lamar scrambles) — inputs: 62 plays × 53% = ~33 dropbacks − ~2.5 sacks − ~2.5 scrambles ≈ 28 att; 29 designed runs + scrambles ≈ 30 box carries (Henry ~18–19, Lamar ~5–6, Hill ~3–4). 2025 baselines: 24.8 team pass att/g, 29.8 box rush att/g (nflverse).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: HC Jesse Minter — he calls defensive plays himself (confirmed at introductory presser — baltimoreravens.com/SI, Feb 2026). Anthony Weaver holds the DC title (hired Feb 2026, ex-MIA DC 2024–25, ex-BAL DL coach 2022–23) and runs game-planning/personnel, but Minter is the signal-caller.
• Tenure with team: year 1 · New DC: yes — new-DC protocol; all 2025 BAL scheme stats void (Orr's numbers dead; Orr left for SEA)
• Front/scheme family: hybrid/odd-front, Macdonald–Fangio tree — light boxes, sim pressures and stunts over blitzes, disguise-heavy split-safety shells (matchquarters.com; The Banner film study, 2026)

Scheme rates = Minter's prior stop (LAC 2025, his most recent call), per protocol:

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first): EDGE Trey Hendrickson signed 4yr/$112M (after rescinded Maxx Crosby trade on medical — ESPN FA tracker, March 2026; 74.5 sacks since 2020, 3rd in NFL) — a premium-edge arrival worth +2–4 pts of pressure rate per dst.md §3; EDGE Zion Young drafted 2.45 (Missouri, 18 TFL). Edge room: Hendrickson, Mike Green (2025 R2), Tavius Robinson, Young. Departures: DT Dre'Mont Jones (NE), EDGE David Ojabo (MIA), S Alohi Gilman (KC), S Ar'Darius Washington (NYG) (ESPN FA tracker, March 2026); EDGE Odafe Oweh traded to LAC in-season Oct 2025; Kyle Van Noy not on 2026 depth chart (status UNVERIFIED). CB1 group intact: Wiggins / Humphrey / Awuzie (re-signed 1yr) + slot CB Chandler Rivers (5.162). Secondary: Hamilton, Starks (2025 R1), Hawkins (FA 2/$10M).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown under new staff; Minter's LAC 2025 was zone/sides-heavy, low man — shadow assignments unlikely to be a base feature. Wiggins is the presumptive CB1.

Read: expect a Fangio/Macdonald-flavored unit — bottom-five blitz volume, top-five zone rate, pressure manufactured with sim pressures/stunts and now a genuine elite edge in Hendrickson attacking next to Green. The 2025 unit (30 sacks, 4.31% sack rate, 23.4 PPG — def_summary) had a pass-rush problem; Hendrickson is the direct fix, but §8 year-1 install drag caps early-season DST confidence (dc_new: true).

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: first-time play-caller (automatic low) + new HC + OL overhaul (2 of 5 returning, rookie R1 interior starter, contested C) + unresolved WR3/RB3 battles. Same QB1 is the only anchor.
• Watch items: (1) Lamar extension standoff / any trade-request escalation (no-tag, no-trade — ESPN, spring 2026); (2) center battle Pinter vs Gwyn vs Bullock; (3) which guard side Ioane/Simpson settle on; (4) WR3: Lane vs Walker vs Sarratt camp battle; (5) RB3: Ali vs Randall; (6) whether Doyle's pace/motion install shows up in preseason; (7) win total already moved 10.5→11.5 — another ≥1.5 move fires a trigger.