Don't Look at My Team

Justice Hill (RB, BAL) — 2026 evaluation

Player facts: age 28, turns 29 on 2026-11-14 (Sleeper players export 2026-07-07; rosters.csv DOB 1997-11-14). 5'10"/205. Oklahoma State; 2019 R4 #113 to BAL (rosters.csv draft fields) — 8th NFL season, entire career in Baltimore. Under contract through 2026: 2-yr/$6M extension signed 2024-09-20, ~$3M APY, 2026 base $2.75M + $250K bonus (Spotrac/OTC/The Banner via search, fetched 2026-07-08). Career mileage is tiny for his age: 268 career REG carries (PFR via search, fetched 2026-07-08) + ~120 career receptions ≈ ~390 REG touches — but the injury file is not (Achilles 2021; concussion, out Wks 17–18 2024; toe + season-ending cervical disc Nov 2025 — injuries.csv 2024/2025). Participating in OTAs, reported recovered (RotoWire, May 2026).

Verdict — HOLD (medium confidence)

Hill is what the market says he is: a real NFL passing-down specialist with near-zero standalone fantasy value and a *muddy* — not clean — contingent path, priced at exactly zero. The role is verified and his (team site "clear pass-down back," April 2026; Sleeper depth chart RB2, 2026-07-07; RotoWire outlook, May 2026), the earning rates are fine (TPRR proxy ~0.19 both years), and Keaton Mitchell's 59 carries + 12 targets left with only R5 capital (Adam Randall) arriving. But the rb.md §7 handcuff test fails on the leg that matters: succession is not clean. A Derrick Henry absence on this roster most plausibly opens a committee in which the 232-lb rookie Randall — not the 205-lb, 29-year-old Hill coming off a neck disc injury — inherits the early-down and goal-line work that actually scores (this system's own Randall eval, 2026-07-08, makes that case). Standalone he's a ~6–8 PPG PPR piece who never enters a 12-team lineup; contingent he's a flex-week rental, not a league-winner. Profile and price agree → HOLD. Draft nothing; he is the correct *waiver* add the day Henry news breaks, valuable mostly as the PPR half of a split.

Bull case

The passing-down job is real, uncontested, and verified into July: team site names him the clear pass-down back (April 2026), Sleeper depth chart RB2 (2026-07-07), consistent ~0.19 TPRR and 52–59% throw-play participation two years running — nobody else on the roster (Ali: 11 career targets of note; Randall: rookie with unproven pass-pro) has a claim on those snaps in 2026.
The age discount overshoots: ~390 career REG touches at 28 is a receiving-back mileage profile that ages fine (rb.md §8) — his 2024 self (8.5 PPG, 127 PPR) is recent proof the role pays when healthy, and Mitchell's departure with no meaningful capital added is a genuine green flag for restoring it.
First PPR dollar in on any Henry news, for free: Henry is 32 with ~2,860 career touches; if he misses time, Hill's share of the replacement committee (passing downs + change-of-pace) makes him an immediate flex-viable add on an 11.5-win offense — Gainwell 2025 (221 PPR) shows the tail when a vet pass-down back inherits an opened backfield.

Bear case

Standalone value is bench-dead in 12-team: 8.6 weighted opportunities/g, 37% snap share, ~0 inside-5 role, 6.5 PPG — he has never been startable while Henry stands, and the 11.5-win positive script structurally caps the trailing-game targets that are his entire fantasy output.
The contingency likely fires past him: a Henry absence opens early-down and goal-line work Hill physically doesn't take (5'10"/205, and the new staff drafted a 6'3"/232 converted-WR precisely for that shape); Hill's slice of the committee is the low-TD, low-carry half — a rental flex, not a prize. And the staff that inherited him saves $3.1M by moving on if Randall shows enough in camp.
Age-29 season on a head/neck injury axis: concussions cost him Wks 17–18 of 2024; a cervical disc ended 2025 in November; add the 2021 Achilles and he has three seasons materially shortened in five years. Games risk is high, and any neck recurrence isn't a stint — it's a retirement conversation.

Projection & comps

Team inputs from data/team-profiles/BAL.md (built 2026-07-07): ~62 plays/g, ~28 pass att/g, ~30 box rush att/g (Henry ~18–19, Lamar ~5–6, Hill ~3–4); win total 11.5 (DK, 2026-07-01) → positive scripts feed Henry, not the two-minute back.

Scenario	Path	Touches	Line	PPR
Floor (20th)	Role stays at 2025's depressed level and/or another multi-week injury; ~11 games	~18 car, ~26 tgt	18-80-1 rush, 20-160-0 rec	~50
Median (50th)	Healthy-ish 15 games; pass-down role re-established under Doyle; small Mitchell-vacated carry bump	~48 car, ~41 tgt	48-215-1.5 rush, 32-260-1 rec	~98
Ceiling (80th)	2024 role fully restored (3.5+ tgt/g) + Henry misses 2–3 games with Hill taking the passing-game share of the replacement committee	~71 car, ~62 tgt	71-325-2 rush, 49-400-3 rec	~160

Build: targets = on-field throw-play participation ~50% × TPRR ~0.19 (both computed from participation.csv + receiving.csv, see §3) ≈ 2.7–3.0/g; yards at career-typical ~4.5 YPC / ~8 y/rec (2024–25 CSVs). xTD ≈ 2.5 median — he has effectively no inside-5 role (Henry: 16 rush TD in each of 2024 and 2025 — data/stats), so 2025's 3 TDs on 39 touches is regression fodder, not signal.
Games-played risk: high — Achilles (2021), concussion (2024, out Wks 17–18), toe + season-ending cervical disc (2025), age-29 season. The head/neck axis pattern across 2024–25 is the specific worry; a disc recurrence is a career-threat, not a stint.
External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent as of 2026-07-08).

Comps (verified in local CSVs):

Justice Hill 2024 (self): 47-228-1 + 42-383-3 on 51 tgt, 127.1 PPR/15 g = 8.5 PPG (data/stats/2024) — the healthy-role ceiling shape.
Ameer Abdullah 2024 (LV): 66-311-2 + 40-261-3, 125.2 PPR/15 g (data/stats/2024) — aging satellite back with a bump year.
Ty Johnson 2024–25 (BUF): 91.7 and 100.3 PPR/17 g (data/stats) — pass-down specialist on an elite positive-script offense: the median shape.
Samaje Perine 2024 (KC): 20 car + 28-322-1, 81.4 PPR/17 g (data/stats/2024) — the floor shape when the role shrinks.
Kenneth Gainwell 2025 (PIT): 114 car + 73-486-3 on 85 tgt, 221.3 PPR (data/stats/2025) — the contingent tail: what a veteran pass-down backup scores when the starter role opens and he *keeps* the passing downs. Hill reaching this requires Henry missing half a season AND holding off Randall — beyond the 80th percentile.

Usage profile — opportunity table (2025, with 2024 in parentheses)

All rates from data/stats/2025 and 2024 CSVs (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07) unless noted. 2025 = 10 games (Wks 1–6, 8–10, 12; IR after).

Metric	Value	Verdict
Snap share	37.1% avg (2024: 41.7%), range 20–58% (snap_counts.csv)	Concern band (<40%) — and it fell year over year
Opportunity share	~16–17% of BAL RB opportunities in active games (45 of ~272); 2024: 20.7% season (98 of 473)	Concern (<45%) — Henry owns 71%+ of the backfield both years
Weighted opportunities /g	8.6 (2024: 11.6)	Concern (<13) — the standalone ceiling in one row
High-value touches /g	~2.7 (2024: ~3.4) — targets only; inside-10 carries ≈ 0 (exact count UNVERIFIED; Henry goal-line workhorse)	Concern/borderline
Inside-5 carry share	~0% (Henry 16 rush TD each of last 2 yrs; Hill exact count UNVERIFIED)	Concern — no TD access
Third-down snap share	Exact split UNVERIFIED locally; proxy: on-field for 52.0% of BAL throw plays 2025 (14.3/g), 59.2% REG 2024 (17.8/g) (participation.csv, time-to-throw plays)	Good band — the passing downs are genuinely his
Routes/g · RP	proxy 14.3/g · ~52% (2025); 17.8/g · ~59% (2024) — includes pass-block snaps, so true RP slightly lower / TPRR slightly higher	Good band; the one elite-adjacent thing in the profile
TPRR (proxy)	0.189 (27/143, 2025) · 0.191 (51/267, 2024)	Good (0.17–0.22) — consistent earner when on the field
xFP	Provider xFP UNVERIFIED; actual 6.5 PPG 2025, 8.5 PPG 2024 (fantasy_points_ppr ÷ games)	RB4/5 range — deep-bench PPR only

Receiving shape: −6 total air yards on 27 targets in 2025 (−34 on 51 in 2024, receiving.csv) with more YAC than receiving yards both years — a pure behind-the-LOS checkdown/screen profile. In Baltimore that *was* the designed RB usage, but per the §9 install rule every Monken-era designed touch is void until Doyle re-establishes it. Efficiency: MTF/touch, YAC/att, RYOE all below NGS/charting minimums on 18 carries (no ngs_rushing row either year) — UNVERIFIED; irrelevant anyway at this volume per rb.md §1.

Fast 2×2 (rb.md §2): high-ish trust (passing downs, pass-pro) + low opportunity share — the "touches usually follow" read is capped here because the touches that would follow belong contractually and stylistically to Henry.

Context (data/team-profiles/BAL.md, built 2026-07-07)

Regime reset: new HC (Minter), first-time play-caller OC Declan Doyle (Ben Johnson/Payton tree), stability low. Doyle projects gap/duo-leaning, run-first, under-center PA. Payton-tree offenses historically feed a satellite back (Perine role in DEN 2023), which is mildly friendly to Hill's archetype — but the same tree drafted Randall as the potential "joker" (Baltimore Beatdown, post-draft 2026). Nothing Hill did for Monken carries over by default.
Backfield: Henry (age 32, ~2,860 career REG touches, signed through 2027) owns early downs + goal line at a 60.6% carry share; Hill passing downs; Ali vs Randall contested for RB3 (team profile; roundtable.io camp primer, 2026-06-27). Mitchell departed to LAC → ~59 carries + 12 targets vacated, only R5 capital added — the one structural tailwind: Hill's 2025 carry dip (1.8/g vs 3.1/g in 2024) was partly Mitchell eating the change-of-pace work.
Game script: win total 11.5 → heavy positive script. Hill's targets live in trailing/two-minute situations; on a −300-ish weekly favorite those situations are scarce. His receiving role is script-*proof* (floor), but the team's quality actively suppresses his volume (rb.md §4) — the rare profile where a great offense is a mild negative.
Contract/roster security: $3M-APY specialist deal = "committee/insurance," the team told us the plan (rb.md §9). PFF named him a cut candidate in March (~$3.1M cap savings — SI, 2026-03-03), but he survived FA and the draft, and the April team-site depth chart + June camp primers still slot him as the clear No. 2 / pass-down back. Roster spot likely but not iron-clad under a staff with zero attachment to him.
Handcuff test (rb.md §7): fragile/aged starter ✓ (Henry 32, three straight 300+ touch seasons) · good offense ✓ (11.5 win total) · clean succession ✗ — at 5'10"/205 with a cervical disc in the file, beat coverage itself doubts he can carry a full-time load (RotoWire outlook, May 2026), and Randall is the succession-shaped body. 2×2 placement: low standalone / low-to-mid contingent — above roster-clog only because the passing-down floor piece of any Henry-out committee is genuinely his.

Tripwires (void this eval and re-run)

Any Henry injury/absence news (camp or in-season) — Hill flips to an immediate TARGET waiver/late-round add for the PPR share; re-run alongside Randall.
Camp/preseason reports of Randall or Ali taking third-down/two-minute reps with the 1s — that's Hill's entire fantasy claim; losing it = AVOID (roster clog).
Hill cut or traded (watch final roster cuts, late August 2026; $3.1M savings) — eval void.
Neck setback / PUP at camp open (~late July 2026) — games risk goes terminal; downgrade.
ADP rises into drafted range (inside ~pick 180 on FFC/Sleeper) — someone is paying for insurance that isn't clean; re-grade toward FADE.

Sources

data/stats/2025/: rushing.csv, receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv, injuries.csv, rosters.csv, ngs_rushing.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07) — 18-93-2 rush, 27-tgt/21-169-1 rec, 65.2 PPR/10 g; snap %, throw-play participation 52.0%, TPRR proxy 0.189; toe Wk 11, neck Wk 13 → IR; status RES Wk 18; comps Gainwell/Warren/Johnson/Perine/McNichols
data/stats/2024/: same tables (pulled 2026-07-07) — 47-228-1 + 51-tgt/42-383-3, 127.1 PPR/15 g; snap 41.7%, participation 59.2%, TPRR proxy 0.191; concussion Wks 12/17/18 entries; comps Abdullah 125.2, Ty Johnson 91.7, Perine 81.4
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Hill absent from FFC PPR mocks (sleeper-searchrank tail row, 2026-07-08); Henry 15.5 reference
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 28, DOB 1997-11-14, 5'10"/205, years_exp 7, depth_chart_order 2, search_rank 999
data/team-profiles/BAL.md (built 2026-07-07) — Doyle/Minter regime, committee split, win total 11.5, vacated Mitchell work, volume inputs, pecking order #5
Spotrac / Over The Cap / The Banner / KSL / Bleacher Report (fetched 2026-07-08) — 2yr/$6M extension signed 2024-09-20 through 2026; 2026: $2.75M base + $250K bonus
PFR via search (fetched 2026-07-08) — 268 career REG carries; career season shape 2019–25; 2021 Achilles (Wikipedia)
baltimoreravens.com / The Banner / SI / CBS (Nov 2025, fetched 2026-07-08) — neck disc, IR placement, Wk 17–18 return "possibility" that didn't materialize
SI Ravens (2026-03-03, fetched 2026-07-08) — PFF cut candidate, $3.1M cap savings
RotoWire player page (May 2026, fetched 2026-07-08) — OTA participation, "pass-catching specialist" 2026 outlook, full-time workload doubts
roundtable.io camp primer (2026-06-27) / SI positional assessment / Baltimore Beatdown post-draft depth chart (April–June 2026, fetched 2026-07-08) — RB room: Henry / Hill / Ali vs Randall, Mitchell to LAC, Randall "joker" note
Sibling eval: evaluations/players/2026/adam-randall.md (2026-07-08) — succession-shape analysis, Henry mileage (~2,860 REG touches)
UNVERIFIED: inside-10/inside-5 carry counts (no play-level yardline data locally); exact third-down snap share (proxy used); provider xFP; MTF/YAC/RYOE (below charting minimums)