Buffalo Bills

BUF — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Offseason headline: Sean McDermott was fired after the 2025 divisional-round OT loss to Denver. OC Joe Brady was promoted to HC on 2026-01-27 (ESPN, NFL.com) and keeps calling the offensive plays, so play-caller continuity survives the HC change. Pete Carmichael Jr. is the new OC (non-calling). Jim Leonhard is a first-time NFL DC installing a 3-4 (dc_new: true). DJ Moore was acquired from Chicago for a 2026 2nd (#60).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Joe Brady (HC) — confirmed. Brady stated from day one he remains the play-caller; OC Pete Carmichael Jr. preps as the emergency caller (Buffalo News / twobillsdrive.com, 2026-02-07; buffalobills.com).
• Tenure with team: 5th season (WR coach 2022–23, interim OC from Nov 2023, OC 2024–25, HC 2026). Prior relationship with QB1: has called Josh Allen's plays since Nov 2023.

Last play-calling stops (BUF 2023–25 is one continuous stop, split by season; all rates computed from nflverse pbp + FTN charting via nflreadpy, 2026-07-07):

Pace note: the 33.3 s/play is a raw drive-internal clock delta computed from pbp (includes stoppages) — not comparable to the ≤27.5/29.5 situation-neutral bands; the situation-neutral pace rank is UNVERIFIED. Volume is better read from plays/game: 65.1 pass+rush plays/gm in 2025 (data/stats/2025/pbp_summary.csv), up from 59.1 in 2024 (computed from nflverse pbp).

Read: Brady is a run-tilted (PROE ≈ −2 to −4%), high-motion (60% in 2025), spread-the-ball caller — no fed alpha since CAR 2020: Shakir has led BUF at only ~20% TS two straight years, with RB targets in the healthy 15–22% band. Personnel is unusually heavy (52% 11, ~22% combined 21/22) — WR3 snaps are capped and TE/FB routes live. The offense wins on efficiency (+0.140 EPA/play, best-in-class 2025, pbp_summary.csv) rather than dropback volume; DJ Moore's arrival adds the first true perimeter target claim of the Brady era, but his history says don't project a 26%+ target share for anyone.

QB situation

• QB1: Josh Allen — 6-yr/$330M extension signed March 2025 (~$250M guaranteed; pre-cutoff report, OverTheCap). 2024 MVP; led all QBs in fantasy 2025 (364.6 PPR pts, 16 gms, data/stats/2025). Benching risk: none. Rushing floor intact: 112 carries, 14 rush TD in 2025 (rushing.csv).
• Backup: Kyle Allen — 2-yr/$4.1M signed March 2026 (buffalobills.com); camp competition with Shane Buechele (buffalowdown.com, June 2026). Tier C — journeyman; the pass game does not survive.
• Contingency line: If Josh Allen misses time: Kyle Allen, tier C — pass rate drops toward low-50s%, aDOT compresses to screens/checkdowns, the QB-run red-zone package (14 rush TD) vanishes, and every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier; only Cook's early-down volume holds. Widen all BUF pass-catcher ranges downward if Allen's games-risk ever rises above low.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Dion Dawkins — Alec Anderson (CONTESTED: vs Austin Corbett, R7 Ar'maj Reed-Adams, R4 Jude Bowry) — Connor McGovern (re-signed 4-yr/$52M, 2026-03-07) — O'Cyrus Torrence — Spencer Brown (Ourlads 2026-06-23; SI/Buffalo Rumblings camp battle reporting, June 2026). Depth added: C Lloyd Cushenberry (1-yr).
• Interior vs edge: tackles are the strength — Brown was a top RT (78% run-block win rate, 4th league-wide; PFF 76.2) and Dawkins solid (81.5 PFF pass-block grade, 2025, Buffalo Rumblings). Interior is the relative soft spot: Torrence graded 54.9 PFF with pass-pro struggles, and LG is an open battle after David Edwards left. A rookie/backup-tier LG means early-season interior pressure risk — the one crack in a top-5 unit; watch it before leaning fully into deep-aDOT projections.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: mixed zone/gap with heavy multi-back and multi-TE sets (21+22 personnel ≈ 22% of snaps, 2025 participation charting) plus the QB short-yardage package. RB fits: one-cut backs with receiving chops (Cook is the scheme); goal-line work splits between Cook and Allen sneak/power.
• Pass-game family: spread/west-coast hybrid (Brady: LSU/Saints tree; Carmichael is a Payton–Saints west-coast lifer) — high motion (60.3%), moderate-high PA (24.7%), quick timing, YAC- and slot-friendly. Implications: slot/option-route profiles (Shakir) and RB/TE outlet volume are structurally supported; low 11-personnel rate (52%) kills WR3/WR4 fantasy viability; mid aDOT overall with Allen's off-script deep shots layered on top.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries, from data/stats/2025/receiving.csv + rushing.csv):

• Gabe Davis WR — 18 / 0 (presumed departed: expiring deal, absent from Ourlads 6/23)
• Elijah Moore WR — 17 / 6 (presumed departed, same basis)
• Brandin Cooks WR — 11 / 0 (presumed departed, same basis)
• Curtis Samuel WR — 9 / 0 (presumed departed, same basis)
• Reggie Gilliam FB — 2 / 2 (confirmed: 2-yr deal with NE, Bills/ESPN FA trackers, 2026-03)
• Mitch Trubisky QB2 — 0 / 9 (confirmed: TEN, 2026-03)

Vacated targets: ~57 (12% of 479 team targets) · Vacated carries: ~17 — a redistribution, not a feeding opportunity (arrival capital covers it).

Arrivals:

• DJ Moore WR — trade: BUF 2026 2nd (#60) to CHI for Moore + 2026 5th (#165), official at league year (buffalobills.com, NFL.com, 2026-03). Inherited contract runs through 2029 (~$27.5M/yr, signed with CHI 2024 — pre-cutoff report). Played for Brady in CAR 2020: 22.3% TS, 1,193 yds. Age-29 season coming off career-lows (50 rec, 682 yds in 2025 — NFL.com).
• Skyler Bell WR — R4 #125, UConn (buffalobills.com draft tracker, 2026-04). Slot depth behind Shakir (Ourlads).
• Trent Sherfield WR — 1-yr (FA tracker, 2026-03); ST/depth claim only.

Projected pecking order (contested slots marked):

Also: Dawson Knox (TE1 by Ourlads listing, extended through 2028) is the inline/blocking TE — 49 tgt in 2025 and a nagging red-zone claim (4 TD); he suppresses Kincaid's snap ceiling more than his target ceiling. FB Gilliam's departure may trim the 21/22-personnel packages — watch camp.

RB committee split: Cook is the bell-cow — early-down + goal-line (309 carries, 56.5% carry share, 12 rush TD, 2025; extension signed Aug 2025, reported 4-yr/$48M — pre-cutoff report). Passing downs: Ty Johnson (33 tgt, 2025), RB2 role CONTESTED with Ray Davis (under contract through 2027, Spotrac; first-team All-Pro KR 2025). Goal-line leak: Josh Allen (14 rush TD).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 10.5 (BetMGM, Over −145 / Under +120, page updated 2026-05-20; fetched 2026-07-07) → script lean: positive
• Projected plays/game: ~64 (2025 actual 65.1 pass+rush; positive script trims hurry-up, Brady pace steady) · Projected pass rate: ~55% (2025 raw 56.2%, PROE −3.5%, neutral 51.2%; positive-script lean holds it below league average, Moore arrival nudges neutral pass rate up marginally)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 (≈35.5 pass plays incl. ~2.4 sacks) · rush attempts/game: ~28.5 (inputs: 64 plays × 55% pass; rush total includes ~7 Allen carries/gm — 2025 actuals 36.5 pass plays / 28.5 rushes per game, pbp_summary.csv)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Jim Leonhard (confirmed hire 2026-01-31, buffalobills.com; Brady is an offense-side HC who keeps offensive play-calling, so the DC runs and calls the defense — buffalobills.com OTA reporting, June 2026)
• Tenure with team: 1st year · New DC: yes — new-DC protocol applies; all 2025 BUF scheme stats below are VOID for 2026 projection. First-time NFL DC (weak-prior tree: Vance Joseph blitz school + his own Wisconsin match-coverage/simulated-pressure system).
• Front/scheme family: 3-4 base / odd front — converted from McDermott's 4-down nickel shell (buffalobills.com, SI.com, spring 2026); separate ILB/OLB coaching rooms installed.

2025 baseline (VOID under new DC — recorded for reference only):

Leonhard prior stop, DEN 2025 (DC Vance Joseph; Leonhard asst. HC / defensive pass-game coordinator, 2024–25 — Mile High Report, Yahoo): man 44.4%, blitz 32.5% (5+ rushers), pressure 24.3%, sack rate 10.3% (68 sacks) — nflverse participation + FTN charting, computed 2026-07-07. Expect BUF to drift from a zone-heavy split-field shell toward this blitz-heavy, man-leaning attack profile.

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• IN: Bradley Chubb (edge, 3-yr FA deal; 8.5 sacks with MIA 2025 — Bills FA tracker 2026-03), TJ Parker (edge, R2 #35 — top pick of the draft class), Davison Igbinosun (CB, R2 #62), Dee Alford (nickel CB, 3-yr/$21M), C.J. Gardner-Johnson (S, 1-yr), Geno Stone (S), Jalon Kilgore (S, R5), Zane Durant (DT, R5)
• OUT: Joey Bosa (edge — let walk in FA, still unsigned late March; 5 sacks 2025), Taron Johnson (slot CB — traded to LV for a 6th, 2026-03), Taylor Rapp (S — released, failed physical)
• CB1 Christian Benford and 2025 R1 CB Maxwell Hairston return as the boundary pair (Ourlads 2026-06-23); Ed Oliver remains (DT) after an injury-lost 2025 (4 games).
• Shadow-CB tendency: Benford was sides-locked in the 2025 split-field zone scheme (presses 50%+ of snaps — Matchquarters, Dec 2025); whether Leonhard travels him in a man-heavier scheme is unknown — beat coverage openly questions the roster's man-coverage fit (Buffalo Rumblings, June 2026).

Read: Expect a blitz-heavy (low-30s%), man-leaning attacking 3-4 modeled on the Denver defense that just knocked Buffalo out — with a year-1 install drag through weeks 1–4 and a real personnel-fit question (zone-built secondary, edge room re-tooled with Chubb + Parker to fix a 27th-ranked PRWR). Boom/bust weekly DST variance up; treat 2025 coverage splits as void for matchup reads.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — play-caller (Brady, ≥2 yrs calling) and QB1 (Allen) are continuous and 4/5 OL starters return, which argues high; but the HC/OC restructure around Brady, an open LG battle, a contested WR2/boundary rotation, and a pecking-order-reshaping WR trade are collectively one-major-change-plus. Offensive trust is solid; defensive trust is separately capped by dc_new: true.
• Watch items: (1) LG battle (Anderson/Corbett/rookies) — interior pressure risk; (2) DJ Moore camp usage vs the age-decline narrative (heavy.com "concern" reporting, June 2026); (3) Coleman vs Palmer boundary snaps; (4) RB2 (Ty Johnson vs Ray Davis); (5) Knox/Kincaid snap split under Carmichael's input; (6) any Benford shadow/man-rate reporting out of camp — first data on the Leonhard install; (7) win total moves ≥1.5.