Don't Look at My Team

DJ Moore — WR, BUF — 2026

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 66.3 / WR33 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). The market is pricing an exact repeat of 2025 — Moore finished WR33 in receiving PPR (172.2 pts) and is being drafted WR33 — but 2025's raw totals came from a role that no longer exists: Ben Johnson used him as a sacrificial clear-out X (TPRR 0.152, 65% catchable-target rate, 26% of targets 20+ yards deep) behind Odunze/Loveland/Burden. The trade voids that role per the positional-change protocol (wr.md §4): Buffalo paid a 2nd (#60) plus new 2028 guarantees, Joe Brady already ran Moore as his X at a 21.4% target share in CAR 2020, and the QB catchable-rate jump (his targets 65% catchable in CHI 2025 → Allen's BUF at 78.9%, league avg 74.5%) is the largest environment upgrade a WR could receive this offseason. Why the market is wrong: it is reading 2025's output as player decline when the usage data says it was role assignment — his hands (1.2% drop rate) and separation (NGS 3.27 vs 3.44 in 2024) never moved — while the real cap on his ceiling (Brady's spread-the-ball history) is a reason he's not a MUST-HAVE, not a reason he's priced correctly at WR33. Median projection ~WR15-20; price WR33; low games risk (17 games in five straight seasons).

Bull case

Largest QB/environment upgrade in the league: his 2025 targets were 65% catchable (CHI team 70.9%) vs Allen's BUF at 78.9% (FTN 2025, computed 2026-07-07) — and his own hands/separation never declined (1.2% drop rate, NGS separation 3.27 vs 3.44). The efficiency collapse was thrown *to* him, not by him.
Capital + coach fit the market is ignoring: a 2nd-round pick plus new guarantees for an offense whose profile explicitly lacked a perimeter target claim, run by the coach who gave this exact player his only fed-X season (21.4% TS, 1,193 yds, CAR 2020). Presumptive first read on play-action and boundary concepts.
Price already contains the bear case: WR33 is his 2025 finish in a decoy role. Usage median ≈ WR15-20 with a WR36 floor and five straight 17-game seasons — the downside is roughly the price; the upside is 4-6 rounds of value.

Bear case

TPRR 0.152 is a role-collapse number (below the 0.16 avoid line, wr.md §10) and he turns 29 in April — if even half of it is player decline rather than Ben Johnson's route assignment, the median falls toward Keenan Allen 2025 (182.7 PPR) and the pick returns nothing over ADP.
Brady's offense structurally caps the reward: run-tilted (PROE −3.5%), spread distribution (no BUF WR over ~20% TS in two years), ~500-target pool, and a crowded tree (Shakir/Kincaid/Cook/Coleman) — the realistic best case is ~125 targets, so there is no league-winning tail here, only value.
Boundary-heavy, floor-fragile profile: 76-79% of targets outside the numbers two straight years (pbp) — per methodology, that profile needs elite ball skills to hold a weekly floor, and his 2025 zone TPRR (0.143) shows what happens when defenses stop respecting him. Full-PPR floor depends on a catch rate rebound that is projected, not yet observed.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (team volume from data/team-profiles/BUF.md, 2026-07-07): BUF 2025 team targets = 479 over 17 games (receiving.csv); Allen back for 17 with a marginal pass-rate nudge from Moore's arrival → projected team target pool ≈ 500.

Scenario	TS	Targets	Rec (catch%)	Yards (Y/T)	Rec TD	+ Rush	PPR
Floor (20th)	19%	~95	57 (60%)	~720 (7.6)	4.5	~12-70-0	~165
Median (50th)	22%	~110	70 (64%)	~910 (8.3)	6.5	~13-70-0.4	~210
Ceiling (80th)	25%	~125	82 (66%)	~1,100 (8.8)	9	~15-80-1	~255

TD anchor: his cp-based xTD was 6.48 in 2025 (computed from nflverse pbp, 2026-07-07) in a far worse offense; Allen threw 25 TD in 16 games (passing.csv 2025) and Moore's 2024 RZ target share was 28% before the decoy year — 6.5 median TDs is xTD-anchored, not a hope.
Rushing: 14-15 designed carries each of the last two years (14-75-0 in 2024, 15-79-1 in 2025, pbp) — Brady's jet/motion offense (60.3% motion) sustains this.
2025 benchmarks (receiving-only PPR, receiving.csv): WR12 ≈ 220, WR18 ≈ 202, WR24 ≈ 194, WR36 ≈ 165. Median 210 ≈ WR15-20; floor ≈ WR36; ceiling ≈ WR8-12.
Games risk: low — 17 games in five consecutive seasons 2021-25, never fewer than 15 in 8 career years (nflverse player stats, 2026-07-07).
External sanity check: no data/projections/ on disk. Public analysis (FantasyLife / Fantasy Footballers, June-July 2026) centers ~100 targets and "favorite to lead the team in targets" — my 110 median is modestly higher, on the weight of Brady's CAR 2020 usage of Moore plus the R2 acquisition capital. Flagged as a mild disagreement, not a conflict.

Comps (role: veteran X, 100-125 targets, good QB, run-lean offense — all from data/stats/):

DJ Moore CAR 2020 under Brady — 118 tgt, 66-1,193-4, aDOT 13.2 (~211 PPR) — the direct precedent
Stefon Diggs NE 2025 — 102 tgt, 85-1,013-4, 210.3 PPR — age-veteran reset on a new team
Courtland Sutton DEN 2025 — 124 tgt, 74-1,017-7, 219.7 PPR, 21.2% TS — the median-plus outcome
Michael Pittman IND 2024 — 111 tgt, 69-808-3, 165.8 PPR — the floor outcome
Keenan Allen LAC 2025 — 122 tgt, 81-777-4, 182.7 PPR — the "age decline is real" bear comp

Usage profile

All stats: nflverse via data/stats/<yr>/ + pbp/participation joins, computed 2026-07-07, REG only. Routes = on-field-for-dropback proxy from participation.csv (slightly overcounts true routes).

Metric	2024 CHI	2025 CHI	Read
Target share	26.6%	16.0%	Elite → concern; role-driven (Ben Johnson spread: Odunze 91, Moore 85, Loveland 83 tgt)
TPRR	0.211	0.152	The red flag — below the 0.16 line; but earned in a clear-out role at aDOT 11.6
Route participation	97.5%	86.8%	Still good; declined with rookie-WR rotation, not benching
Air-yards share	25.2%	21.8%	Never an air-yards alpha
WOPR	0.575	0.392	Good → concern
RZ target share	28%	14%	Elite → concern; 2024 shows what a real role gives him
End-zone targets	7	13	2025 EZ looks were deep shots (catchable rate killed them)
xFP (cp-based, computed)	13.7 PPG (233)	9.7 PPG (165)	2025 usage genuinely was WR40-level — no hidden points; actual 172.2 ≈ expectation
aDOT	7.5	11.6	Two artificial extremes: screen merchant 2024 → decoy 2025. Brady 2020 used him at 13.2 with a full tree
Depth mix (<LOS/0-9/10-19/20+)	26/42/17/14%	19/32/24/26%	2024 = manufactured; 2025 = deep-skewed; 2020 CAR = 5/42/31/21% — healthy 4-depth tree under Brady
MOF vs boundary	21% MOF	24% MOF	Boundary-heavy (76-79%) — floor-fragile per wr.md §3; survives on ball skills
Drop rate	3.5% (5/142)	1.2% (1/85)	Elite hands, both years
Catchable-target rate	73%	65%	QB-driven: CHI team 70.9%, BUF 78.9%, league 74.5% (FTN 2025) — the buy signal
TPRR vs man / zone	.201 / .221	.178 / .143	Historically coverage-robust; 2025 zone crater = defenses ignoring the decoy
Slot / wide %	UNVERIFIED	UNVERIFIED	No alignment export in `data/raw/`; qualitatively an X/perimeter player in 2025 (Buffalo News/twobillsdrive, Mar 2026)

Late-season split: none. 2025 weekly targets sat 3-7 every single week (pbp) — no growth, no collapse. The role was fixed by design; that's why the trade, not a splits table, is the projection input.
The §2 2×2 read: 2025 was high-ish RP + low TPRR = "capped (sell)" in that role. New team + new role voids it — re-projected from the BUF role above.
Archetype: boundary X with designed-touch garnish. Not an Alpha X (AYS never ≥35%); at his best (2020, 2023) a full-tree No. 1.
Age 29 (b. 1997-04-14, Sleeper 2026-07-07); YAC-and-strength profile rather than pure speed — the age-30 fade line (wr.md §9) is a 2027 problem, but it caps how much history to pay for.

Context (from `data/team-profiles/BUF.md`, 2026-07-07)

Play-caller continuity with a twist: Joe Brady promoted to HC (2026-01-27), keeps calling plays. Run-tilted (PROE −3.5%), high motion (60.3%), 52% 11-personnel with heavy 21/22 usage — WR3 snaps are capped; the top of the tree is what matters.
The Brady cap: no BUF receiver has beaten a ~20% TS in his two OC years (Shakir 19.8%/20.2%). His only true fed X was… DJ Moore, CAR 2020 (21.4% TS, 118 targets, aDOT 13.2 — pbp 2020, computed 2026-07-07). The profile's read: "don't project a 26%+ target share for anyone."
QB: Josh Allen, no benching risk, elite. Contingency: Kyle Allen (tier C) — if Josh misses time, every BUF pass-catcher drops a tier.
O-line: top-5 unit (PBWR 4th, RBWR 1st); one crack at LG — mild early-season interior-pressure risk for deeper-developing routes.
Target competition: Shakir (slot engine), Kincaid (best per-game TE claim), Cook (~18% RB share), Coleman/Palmer contesting boundary rotation. Vacated targets only ~57 (12%) — Moore's volume must be *taken* via the pecking order, and he holds the capital claim (traded R2 + $15.5M of 2028 salary newly guaranteed — Bleacher Report/NFL.com, Mar 2026).
Game environment: win total 10.5 (BetMGM, fetched 2026-07-07) → positive script, ~33 pass att/gm — bottom-third pass volume. This is the main reason ceiling stops at ~255.
Camp signal (June 2026): Brady — "I didn't see a guy that has had any drop-off" (heavy.com, 2026-07-06); Allen — Moore is "as smooth of a football player as I've ever been around" (minicamp, June 2026, via search/buffalobills.com video). Beat consensus: clear WR1 (SI, clutchpoints). No injury flags; Sleeper injury_status null (2026-07-07).

Tripwires

Camp usage contradicts the WR1 read — reports of Coleman/Palmer rotating with Moore at X, or Shakir clearly leading first-team targets in preseason → re-run.
Josh Allen games-risk rises above low (any injury) → BUF contingency is tier-C Kyle Allen; all BUF pass-catcher evals void.
ADP rises past ~pick 50 / WR24 → the value edge is gone; verdict flips to HOLD.
Moore misses camp time or any soft-tissue flag (age-29 season) → re-run with decline scenario weighted up.
BUF adds a veteran target claimer (WR/TE trade or signing) or win total moves ≥1.5 → team-profile refresh, then re-run.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ + data/stats/2024/ — receiving.csv, passing.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv, pbp_summary.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07)
nflverse pbp 2020/2024/2025 via nflreadpy — targets, depth mix, MOF/boundary, RZ/EZ targets, TPRR/YPRR (route proxy = on-field dropbacks from participation.csv), weekly splits, xTD/xFP (cp-based), coverage splits, CAR 2020 line, career games (computed 2026-07-07; scratch scripts)
FTN charting 2024/2025 (data/stats/*/ftn_charting.csv) — catchable/contested/drop/screen flags on Moore targets; league + CHI + BUF catchable baselines (computed 2026-07-07)
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 66.3, WR33 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07)
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 29, Maryland, years_exp 8, 6'0"/213, Active, no injury status
data/team-profiles/BUF.md (built 2026-07-07) — Brady/Carmichael, trade details, vacated-target math, hierarchy, OL, win total, volume projections
Web (fetched 2026-07-07): heavy.com "DJ Moore Put on Notice" (2026-07-06, Brady quote); NFL.com trade story + Bleacher Report ($15.5M 2028 guarantee, Mar 2026); SI.com / clutchpoints / buffalobills.com minicamp coverage (June 2026, Allen quote, WR1 status); twobillsdrive/Buffalo News (Mar 2026, "sacrificial X" role read); FantasyLife / Fantasy Footballers target projections (~100 tgt, June-July 2026); Sharp Football (Mar 2026, paywalled — headline only)
UNVERIFIED: 2025 slot/wide alignment %, provider xFP (PlayerProfiler/Fantasy Points), man/zone YPRR from a charting provider (participation-based splits used instead)