Detroit Lions

DET — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: Lions went 9-8 and missed the playoffs (CBS Sports, 2026-07). HC Dan Campbell took play-calling from OC John Morton in Week 10 of 2025 (ESPN, Nov 2025); Morton was fired in Jan 2026 (ESPN/NFL.com, 2026-01). Detroit then rebuilt: new OC, new-look OL, traded its RB2, lost its 11.5-sack edge #2.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Drew Petzing (OC, hired 2026-01-26) — presumed: ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported the expectation during OC interviews was that Campbell relinquishes play-calling to the hire (ESPN/Yahoo, Jan 2026); OTA/minicamp coverage describes "Petzing's offense" installing (A to Z Sports / ESPN, June 2026). No reporting contradicts it as of 2026-07-07. Residual risk: Campbell called plays Weeks 10–18 of 2025 and could take them back.
• Tenure with team: Year 1 · Prior relationship with QB1: none — first year with Goff; Goff publicly praised Petzing after OTAs (ESPN, June 2026)

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — Petzing's only play-calling stop is Arizona, 2023–25; before that QB coach CLE 2022, WR coach MIN 2019):

Read: Petzing is a run-lean, heavy-personnel caller (2nd in NFL in rushing yards-per-carry over his three AZ seasons at 4.92 — detroitlions.com, Jan 2026) whose 12/13-personnel rates were among the league's highest and whose No. 1 read was his tight end — McBride's 27.4% target share led all NFL pass-catchers in 2025. The 2025 raw pass rate (69.9%) is a garbage-script artifact of a bad Cardinals team, not a tendency change. Roster adjustment: Goff + St. Brown are far better passing-game infrastructure than he had in Arizona, so expect more neutral pass volume than his AZ profile suggests — but the 12-personnel tilt gates DET WR3 snaps and makes LaPorta (if healthy) the biggest scheme winner, with beat reporting adding that Petzing "wants to push the ball downfield" for Jameson Williams (A to Z Sports, June 2026). Year-1 install drag applies (methodology §9). 2025 DET tendencies under Morton/Campbell (59.7% pass, 64.0 plays/gm, 47.3% motion, 25.2% PA, 51% 11 pers. — nflverse/FTN, pulled 2026-07-07) are void for projection except as roster evidence.

QB situation

• QB1: Jared Goff — 4-yr/$212M extension signed May 2024, runs through 2028 (Spotrac); benching risk: none
• Backup: Teddy Bridgewater (signed from TB, 2026 FA — Wikipedia 2026 Lions season page, as-of 2026-07-07) — tier B: functional veteran, offense compresses (−aDOT, more screens/checkdowns)
• Contingency line: If Goff misses time: Bridgewater, tier B — expect ~3–5 pt pass-rate cut, aDOT drop, deep game (Jameson Williams) hurt most; St. Brown/Gibbs/LaPorta hold as short-game targets. Luke Altmyer (UDFA) is QB3 — tier C if it gets there.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (SI post-minicamp depth chart, June 2026): LT Penei Sewell (moved from RT), LG Juice Scruggs (CONTESTED — vs Christian Mahogany, Ben Bartch), C Cade Mays (FA, 3-yr up to $25M from CAR), RG Tate Ratledge, RT Blake Miller (ROOKIE, R1 pick 17 — contested with Larry Borom). Departed: LT Taylor Decker (released 2026-03-09 at his request — NFL.com), C Graham Glasgow (released 2026-03-02 — Wikipedia).
• Interior vs edge: 2025's 31st-place PBWR was interior-driven after Ragnow's 2025 retirement; the rebuild is athletic but unproven — new C (Mays), contested LG, rookie RT, and Sewell learning the left side. Expect early-season pressure spikes (rookie/new-starter rule, methodology §4): interior uncertainty caps deep-ball efficiency early; Sewell at LT protects Goff's blind side with an All-Pro, which partially offsets. Downgrade deep-aDOT efficiency weeks 1–4; quick game and RB/TE outlets gain.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: zone-lean with gap/duo mixed, run out of 12/13 personnel with RPO elements (Revenge of the Birds scheme breakdown, Feb 2025; AZ 2023–25 2nd in NFL yards/carry at 4.92 — detroitlions.com, Jan 2026) — RB fits: Gibbs (one-cut burst) is an ideal fit; Pacheco's downhill style fits the heavy-personnel duo looks.
• Pass-game family: West-coast/Shanahan-adjacent with heavy personnel — PA and RPO out of condensed 12/13 sets, spread 11 on passing downs (RotB, Feb 2025). Implications: TE routes and slot-from-heavy-sets are fed (McBride precedent → LaPorta), WR3 snaps gated by 12-personnel rate (TeSlaa/Dortch capped), aDOT mid with schemed deep shots for Williams.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• RB David Montgomery — 29 tgt / 158 car (traded to HOU 2026-03-11 for OL Juice Scruggs + 2026 4th + 2027 7th — NFL.com)
• WR Kalif Raymond — 30 tgt / 2 car (signed CHI, 1-yr $5.1M, 2026-03-11 — Wikipedia/detroitnews)
• TE depth Firkser/Dwelley/Zylstra — 20 tgt combined (not on post-minicamp roster — SI, June 2026)
• QB Kyle Allen — 3 car (BUF); RB Craig Reynolds — 3 car (not on post-minicamp roster)

Vacated targets: ~79 · Vacated carries: ~164 — below the 120-target feeding-opportunity band (methodology §6); the carry vacancy is real but was immediately re-claimed.

Arrivals (claim): RB Isiah Pacheco (1-yr, $1.81M gtd — Spotrac/NFL.com, March 2026 — modest claim, backup money), WR Greg Dortch (1-yr $1.4M — Petzing's AZ slot/returner), TE Tyler Conklin (1-yr $1.3M), WR Kendrick Law (R5 #168, injured at minicamp — SI June 2026), QB Teddy Bridgewater.

Projected pecking order (post-minicamp depth chart SI June 2026 + 2025 usage + Petzing tendencies):

RB committee split: Gibbs is the workhorse lead — early-down 1A, passing downs (near-exclusive), primary goal-line (13 rush TD in 2025). Pacheco is the early-down/short-yardage complement (Montgomery role at a fraction of the usage claim — 1-yr $1.81M vs Montgomery's multi-year deal; expect meaningfully fewer than Montgomery's 158 carries). Vaki/Saylors depth. Not contested at the top.

TE1/TE2: LaPorta TE1 (trending toward training-camp availability per Campbell, minicamp 2026-06-16 — SI/PoD); Brock Wright TE2 (returned from 2025 throat injury), Conklin TE3/insurance. In Petzing's 12/13 sets, Wright/Conklin get real snaps but LaPorta gets the targets.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 10.5 (DraftKings, over −130 / under +110; BetMGM also 10.5 — CBS Sports / BetMGM, as-of early July 2026) → script lean: positive
• Projected plays/game: ~63.5 · Projected pass rate: ~56% of plays (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33 (≈35.5 dropbacks incl. sacks/scrambles) · rush attempts/game: ~28
• Inputs: DET 2025 = 64.0 plays/gm, 59.7% pass (nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07 — script-inflated by a 9-8 season); ARI 2025 under Petzing = 66.6 plays/gm (garbage-time inflated); Petzing 2023–24 = run-first (ETR); win total 10.5 = positive-script trim on pass rate; elite pass-catcher roster pushes back up; year-1 install drag trims pace early. 63.5 × 0.56 ≈ 35.5 pass plays − ~2.5 sacks/scrambles ≈ 33 att; 63.5 × 0.44 ≈ 28 rushes.

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Kelvin Sheppard (DC) — confirmed: retained for a 2nd season as DC and play-caller of the defense; interviewed for the Miami HC job but stayed (SI/detroitlions.com coaches roster, June 2026)
• Tenure with team: 5th season (LB coach 2021–24 lineage under Campbell, DC since 2025) · New DC: no — 2025 scheme stats remain valid
• Front/scheme family: 4-down, aggressive man-heavy base, run-stop-first (Level Up Fantasy scheme page; detroitfootball.net, 2025 season); Sheppard says he'll play more nickel in 2026 (Detroit Sports Nation, 2026-06-04)

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• OUT — edge Al-Quadin Muhammad (11.5 sacks in 2025, 2nd on team) → TB, 1-yr up to $6M (buccaneers.com, March 2026). The single biggest fantasy-defense loss: expect a 2–4 pt pressure-rate haircut risk (dst.md §3) unless replaced in kind.
• IN — edge D.J. Wonnum (1-yr up to $6M) and R2 #44 Derrick Moore (Michigan; traded up, sent #50 + #128 to NYJ) (ESPN tracker; detroitlions.com draft review, April 2026); DE Payton Turner flier. Aidan Hutchinson anchors (4-yr/$180M ext, $140.5M gtd — NFL.com/Spotrac).
• CB1 D.J. Reed retained — "suddenly one of the most important Lions of 2026" (Pride of Detroit, June 2026). CB dep: Amik Robertson released; CB adds: Rock Ya-Sin (1-yr $4M), Roger McCreary (1-yr), R5 Keith Abney II. Terrion Arnold demoted to 2nd team at OTAs (A to Z Sports, June 2026).
• Secondary health is the swing: S Brian Branch (Achilles, ~9 months at opener — PoD June 2026) and S Kerby Joseph (knee, "slowly working back" — detroitnews 2026-02-24) both ended 2025 on IR. Off-ball: Anzalone → TB, DJ Reader (NT) → NYG (minor fantasy signal per methodology §8).
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — no 2025 shadow reporting found for Reed in Detroit; Reed was historically sides-locked in prior stops. UNVERIFIED beyond that.

Read: A blitz-heavy, man-heavy 4-down front that manufactured a top-10 sack total (49) despite a mediocre 4-man rush — boom/bust weekly DST profile that upgrades opposing man-beaters and punishes bad OLs. Losing an 11.5-sack edge for Wonnum + a rookie is a net pressure downgrade on paper, and the unit's 2026 ceiling rides on Branch/Joseph returning healthy behind an aggressive scheme that exposes its corners.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: two-plus major changes — (1) new play-caller (Petzing, first year, presumed caller), (2) OL overhaul (LT/C/RT all new-look, rookie R1 at RT, contested LG, Sewell side-switch). QB1 continuity (Goff) is the lone anchor. §9 install-drag and scheme-dependent-role voids apply: DET's 2025 motion/personnel/PA profile is void until re-established under Petzing.
• Watch items: (1) hard confirmation Petzing calls plays in preseason — if Campbell keeps them, re-do the tendency table around Campbell's Wk 10–18 2025 sample; (2) LaPorta camp clearance (back) — if he misses camp, drop him to #5-6 in the order and shift TE claims to Wright/Conklin; (3) LG battle (Scruggs/Mahogany/Bartch) and RT (Miller vs Borom); (4) Branch/Joseph activation timelines (DST tripwire); (5) Pacheco role reporting vs Vaki/Saylors; (6) win-total moves ≥1.5.