Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown — WR, DET — 2026

Verdict

HOLD (medium confidence) at ADP 7.3 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07 — WR4 off the board, behind Nacua 2.6, Chase 3.8, JSN 5.8, ahead of Jefferson 10.1 and Lamb 10.6). The market's case is fair and fully priced: three straight seasons of 141+ targets and 1,250+ yards (CBS Sports 2026 Outlook, 2026-06-08), a 31.3% target share / 0.73 WOPR in 2025 (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07), elite durability, and QB continuity with Goff. The profile is genuinely elite — but the price already assumes a top-4 WR finish, and 2026 adds unpriced variance in the other direction: a first-year play-caller (Petzing) whose only prior No. 1 read was his tight end (McBride's league-leading 27.4% TS in ARI 2025 — team profile, 2026-07-07), a healthy LaPorta reclaiming targets that inflated St. Brown's 2025 share, and a projected team pass-volume trim under a run-lean caller. Median projection (~305 PPR) sits at "WR4–7," which is exactly what pick 7 pays for. Profile and price agree: HOLD — take him happily at 7.3, don't reach; he flips to TARGET if he slides past ~pick 12 or if LaPorta's back doesn't clear camp.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, 17-game baseline. Team volume from data/team-profiles/DET.md (2026-07-07): ~63.5 plays/gm × ~56% dropback rate ≈ 35.5 dropbacks/gm → ~604 dropbacks, ~561 pass attempts (33/gm).

Arithmetic (full PPR): median = 113 rec + 132.0 yd-pts + 60 TD-pts ≈ 305; ceiling = 124 + 144.5 + 72 ≈ 340; floor = 94 + 107 + 48 ≈ 249 in 16 games, trimmed to ~245 for a 15-game tail.

• Median TS logic: 2025's 31.3% was competition-thinned (LaPorta missed 8 games; WR depth was Raymond/rookie TeSlaa). 2024, with a full cast, was 27.0% (nflverse). A healthy LaPorta + Petzing's TE-first history pulls the median to ~28% — still elite, just not 31%.
• TD anchor: 11 TD on 172 targets (6.4% TD/target, 2025) is not a spike — he led the NFL in red-zone targets early in 2025 (10 inside the 20 through Wk 4, T-1st inside the 5 — SI red-zone report, Sep 2025; full-season count UNVERIFIED) and has 23 TDs over 2024–25 on sustained RZ usage. Median 10 TD ≈ xTD from ~157 targets with his RZ role, not a regression bet.
• Games risk: low — 17/17/17 games in 2023–2025 era per cached data (17 in 2024, 17 in 2025 — nflverse; "at least 16 games annually" career — CBS, 2026-06-08). One early-exit game (Wk 13 2025, 4 snaps, ankle — snap_counts + injuries.csv).
• Comp seasons: Michael Thomas 2018 (125-1,405-9 — short-aDOT volume alpha), Keenan Allen 2018 (97-1,196-6 — slot-lean alpha, softer TD year = floor shape), and his own 2023–25 trio (119-1,515-10 / 115-1,263-12 / 117-1,401-11); ceiling comp = his 2025 with a healthy Wk 13.
• External projections: none in data/projections/ (directory absent, 2026-07-07) — no cross-check available.

Usage profile (wr.md §2 table)

All nflverse tables pulled 2026-07-07; "routes" = on-field-for-dropback proxy from participation.csv (charted DET dropbacks; true route counts slightly lower, so TPRR/YPRR are conservative labels).

2025 split (weekly.csv): Wk 1–9 under Morton — 9.2 tgt/gm, TS .327, 20.7 PPG; Wk 10–18 under Campbell's play-calling — 10.9 tgt/gm, TS .307, 17.6 PPG (TD-light stretch, volume up). Target volume survived a midseason play-caller change — direct evidence the role is caller-proof.

2×2 read: High RP + elite TPRR = true alpha; nothing to expand into, nothing capped. The only lever that moves him is the team-level pie (pass volume, competition returning).

Target quality, alignment, coverage (wr.md §3–5)

• Depth/field mix: aDOT ~8.1 with 37.8% AYS = huge claim on a short-intermediate offense. 570 YAC (2025, nflverse). MOF vs boundary exact split UNVERIFIED; proxy: 2nd-most slot receiving yards among WRs (only Wan'Dale Robinson higher) while also 16th in perimeter yards (PFF-sourced coverage via web, fetched 2026-07-07) → MOF-leaning earner with a real outside tree — the floor-stable profile, not a slot-only tag.
• Alignment: slot-primary with heavy wide usage; exact 2025 slot% UNVERIFIED (last verified figure: 49.2% slot in 2023 — web, fetched 2026-07-07). Team profile lists him "Slot (primary) / Z." No alignment change reported under Petzing (OTA/minicamp coverage, June 2026).
• Coverage splits: player-level man/zone TPRR/YPRR UNVERIFIED (no provider export in data/raw/). Robustness proxy: full route tree, 90.6 PFF receiving grade (3rd of 81 — PFF via web, fetched 2026-07-07), and five years of production across two play-caller eras. Not contested-catch dependent — wins on separation (NGS 2.95–3.09) and YAC.
• Trust chain: Goff-to-ARSB is a five-year rapport; Goff found him repeatedly in situational drills at 2026 OTAs (detroitlions.com, 2026-06-11). Third-down/two-minute exact counts UNVERIFIED but the CBS outlook and beat coverage treat him as the unquestioned first read.

Context (from data/team-profiles/DET.md, 2026-07-07)

• New play-caller: Drew Petzing (presumed caller; Campbell residual risk — though July camp-preview coverage frames 2026 as Petzing fully taking over play-calling: Yahoo Sports / Detroit Lions Podcast beat coverage, 2026-07; the team's own 2026-07-06 camp preview still doesn't assign duties). Run-lean, 12/13-personnel-heavy history in ARI; his 2025 No. 1 read was TE McBride (27.4% TS, NFL-leading 169 targets). Two-edged: team pass attempts projected down (~561 vs DET's script-inflated 2025), and the TE-first precedent transfers to a healthy LaPorta — but 12 personnel keeps two WRs on the field, so it's TeSlaa/Dortch who get gated, not St. Brown. Beat coverage calls the install "more versatile and more explosive" with the downfield emphasis aimed at Jameson Williams (A to Z Sports/Yardbarker, June 2026) — Williams' deep role and ARSB's underneath/MOF role don't collide.
• QB: Goff locked through 2028, benching risk none. Elite continuity anchor — the single best thing in the profile.
• O-line: rebuilt — 31st PBWR in 2025, new C, rookie R1 RT, Sewell flipped to LT, contested LG. Early-season pressure spikes expected. Per wr.md §7 this *helps* a slot/underneath profile: pressure compresses offenses to the quick game, and St. Brown is the quick game. Mild floor tailwind, mild team-ceiling headwind.
• Competition/vacated: only ~79 targets vacated (Raymond, Montgomery, TE depth) — no feeding-opportunity bump. Returning claims are the story: LaPorta (49 tgt in 9 gm in 2025 = ~92-target full-season pace, plus McBride-precedent upside) and Gibbs (94 tgt; Petzing's ARI RB target share 20.1% sustains it). Hierarchy per team profile: ARSB #1, Gibbs #2, Williams/LaPorta contest #3. LaPorta status as of 2026-07: herniated disc surgery Nov 2025 (9 games played); he says he expects to be in pads for late-July camp, while Campbell has called camp status uncertain ("you're talking about a back... he's improving but yet, he's not completely healed") — detroitlions.com / Pride of Detroit / Bleacher Report, June–July 2026. The wider LaPorta's availability band, the wider ARSB's TS band (tripwire #2).
• Game script: 10.5 win total (DK/BetMGM, early July 2026) = positive scripts = run-out-the-clock second halves under a run-lean caller. Volume risk, not role risk.
• Health (2026): participating fully in OTAs with no reported concerns (detroitlions.com OTA Wk 3, 2026-06-11); "tough cover... throughout minicamp," "looks stronger and more explosive" (June 16–17 minicamp coverage via web, June 2026). St. Brown himself: first fully healthy offseason in two years — "I didn't really have an offseason the year before because I came off surgery, so to have a healthy offseason was nice for me" (detroitlions.com/ESPN, 2026-07-06/07). Historical note kept separate: knee scope was June 2025 (CBS, 2025-06-05), and he carried knee/ankle Questionables in Wks 14–18 of 2025 (injuries.csv — Wk 14 ankle/DNP-Questionable, Wks 17–18 knee/limited-Questionable) while missing zero starts. Schedule note: DET plays an international game in Munich in 2026 (heavy.com, July 2026) — one short/odd week, no projection change.
• Pedigree/age: age 26 (b. 1999-10-24 — Sleeper, 2026-07-07), 6'0" 202, USC, entering year 6. Slot/possession archetype ages late (methodology §5); no age discount until ~29–30.

Archetype: Alpha (slot-flavored) — TS ≥26% both years, AYS 37.8%, full tree. "Scarce, priced up, usually worth it."

Efficiency: QB-driven vs WR-driven

The one ugly 2025 number — catch rate 68.0% (down from 81.6%) — decomposes into: (a) a career-high-but-fine ~5.3% drop rate concentrated in a November cluster (Yahoo, Nov 2025), (b) a 2-of-12 outlier game vs PHI's man-heavy defense (Wk 11 — weekly.csv + Yahoo), and (c) Goff pressured behind the NFL's 31st-ranked pass-blocking unit (ESPN win rates via team profile). TPRR *rose* to 0.31 while catch rate fell — per wr.md §6 that pattern is environment, not decline. NGS separation held (2.95) and YAC over expected stayed positive. No talent-erosion signal.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

• Play-calling clarity flips: Campbell takes back (or is confirmed keeping) play-calling in preseason — the Petzing tendency table this eval leans on becomes void.
• LaPorta's back doesn't clear training camp (or he lands on IR/PUP) — target headroom reopens; ARSB likely flips to TARGET even at 7.3.
• Any 2026 camp report of knee soreness/maintenance for St. Brown — the 2025 scope + late-2025 Questionables pattern would then be a trend, not noise.
• ADP moves past ~12 (out of the 1st-round premium) → flip toward TARGET; ADP into the top 5 → flip toward FADE.
• Preseason route participation < 85% or credible reports of heavy 12-personnel snaps with St. Brown off the field.