HOU — team profile
Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.
Play-caller
- Calls plays: Nick Caley (OC) — confirmed. Caley called plays in 2025 (his first season as a play-caller anywhere) and returns as play-caller for 2026 — the team publicly recommitted after "growth, progress" (click2houston 2026-01-21 "Why Texans OC Nick Caley is returning as play-caller"; GM Caserio: "I would anticipate Nick being here next year" — ESPN 1/2026; 2026 staff officially announced 2026-03-07, profootballnews.net). HC DeMeco Ryans does not call offensive plays.
- Tenure with team: OC since 2025 (2nd season, 2nd as caller) · Prior relationship with QB1: one full season with Stroud; Ryans says the two are "communicating much better" this offseason (NBC Sports PFT, 6/2026).
- Pre-HOU resume (non-calling): LAR pass-game coordinator/TE coach 2023–24 (McVay tree), NE TE coach 2015–22 (McDaniels/Erhardt-Perkins tree) — houstontexans.com coaches roster.
Last 3 play-calling stops (Caley has exactly one — first-time caller in 2025; tree priors only before that):
| Stop (team, yrs) | PROE | Neutral pass% | Sec/play (neutral) | Motion% | PA% | 11 / 12 / 21% | Condensed% | RB tgt share | WR1 TS | Inside-10 pass% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU 2025 | −1.0% (nfelo) | UNVERIFIED (raw pass rate 60.8%) | UNVERIFIED (67.3 plays/gm — top-of-league pace proxy; TOP 31:41) | 43.6% all plays / 52.4% of dropbacks | 23.0% per dropback | 64.6 / 12.0 / 5.1% | UNVERIFIED | 13.9% | 21.7% (Collins, 15 of 17 gms; ~24% per-game) | UNVERIFIED |
| (no prior stops — LAR 2023–24 pass-game coord., non-calling) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| (NE 2015–22 TE coach, non-calling) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Row sources: PROE −1.0%, raw pass 60%, aDOT 8.2, TOP 31:41 — nfeloapp.com team tendencies, 2025 season (fetched 2026-07-07); motion/PA/personnel computed from data/stats/2025/participation.csv + ftn_charting.csv; plays/gm and pass rate from pbp_summary.csv; RB target share (77 of 553 team targets) and WR1 TS from receiving.csv (all nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07).
Read: Caley's year-1 offense was near-neutral PROE with genuinely high play volume (67.3/gm) — volume comes from pace and a defense that gets the ball back (28 takeaways), not from pass-tilt. Motion is moderate (52% of dropbacks), PA is mid (23%), 11 personnel (64.6%) is standard, and the RB target share (13.9%) is below-neutral — receiving-back value ran through Marks' 36 targets, not a featured role. He fed Collins a healthy but not alpha-sized share (21.7% raw, ~24% per-game) with Schultz as the high-volume second read; results were real (404 points, 2nd-most in franchise history; 12 turnovers, fewest in franchise history — houstontexans.com/NBC 1/2026). Year 2 with the same QB, an upgraded OL, and Montgomery added points to modest run-lean consolidation, not a scheme change.
QB situation
- QB1: C.J. Stroud — #2 overall 2023; fifth-year option for 2027 exercised 4/2026 ($25.9M fully guaranteed — ESPN, NFL.com "no-brainer" per Caserio). Benching risk: none. 2025: 273/423, 3,041 yds, 19 TD / 8 INT, 23 sacks, 14 games (
data/stats/2025/passing.csv) — career-lows in yards/TDs (ESPN 2026 offseason story), but sacks fell from 52 (2024) to 23. - Backup: Davis Mills — tier B (functional proven backup; 91/159, 915 yds, 5 TD / 1 INT across 6 appearances in 2025 while Stroud was out —
passing.csv). Under contract for 2026 at $8.1M, final year (profootballnetwork/CBS; trade buzz persisted but he remains on roster per Ourlads 2026-07-02). QB3: Graham Mertz (Ourlads 2026-07-02). - Contingency line: If Stroud misses time: Mills, tier B — offense compresses (aDOT down, screens/checkdowns up ~unchanged pass rate to −3 pts); Collins' deep/intermediate usage is hit hardest, Schultz/Noel underneath work holds, Marks' target role holds. WR2/deep profiles lose a tier; floor stays playable because the defense keeps scripts neutral.
O-line
| Metric | Value | Band | Source (as-of) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass-block rank (PBWR-style) | UNVERIFIED (2025 proxy: 31 sacks allowed, fewest since 2014) | — | houstontexans.com 1/2026; ESPN PBWR rank unsourced as of 2026-07-07 |
| Pressure rate allowed (charting) | 24.3% of charted dropbacks, 2025 (nflverse charting runs higher than PFR defn; PFR value UNVERIFIED) | Mid on this provider | participation.csv (2026-07-07) |
| Run-block rank (RBWR / adj. line yds) | UNVERIFIED (2025 proxy: 108.9 rush ypg, 22nd) | Mid-concern proxy | ESPN offseason story (1/2026) |
| Returning starters | 2 locked at same position (Ersery LT, Ingram RG); Andrews contested at C | Concern | SI minicamp 2026-06-12; Ourlads 2026-07-02 |
- Projected starters LT–RT: LT Aireontae Ersery (2025 R2, year 2 — locked in), LG Wyatt Teller (new — 2-yr/$16M, multi-Pro Bowler; contested with Evan Brown), C Keylan Rutledge (2026 R1 #26, Georgia Tech — ROOKIE flag; Ourlads 7/2 lists him at C over Jake Andrews; minicamp reporting called C open), RG Ed Ingram (re-signed 3-yr through 2028 — locked in), RT Braden Smith (new — 2-yr/$25M, $13.5M gtd, from IND; contested with Trent Brown). Depth: Blake Fisher, Jarrett Patterson, R4 #106 G Febechi Nwaiwu. Sources: ESPN FA tracker, SI depth projection 2026-03-12, SI minicamp 2026-06-12, Ourlads 2026-07-02. Departures: Tytus Howard traded to CLE (5th-rd pick), Juice Scruggs traded to DET (Montgomery deal), Laken Tomlinson off roster.
- Interior vs edge: The bet is on the interior — Teller and Ingram are a legitimately good vet guard pair, but a rookie center (Rutledge, if he wins the job) means early-season interior-pressure spikes per methodology §4, which is the one threat to Stroud's deep game. Edges are the stabler half: Ersery ascending at LT, Smith a proven RT. Net: unit is upgraded on paper vs 2025 but only 2 locked returning starters → continuity concern until camp settles LG/C/RT.
Scheme family
- Run scheme: Zone-based with gap/duo mix (Caley blends McVay-tree zone with Patriots-style gap; exact 2025 zone/gap split UNVERIFIED) — RB fits: Montgomery is the downhill/short-yardage gap hammer he was in DET; Marks is the one-cut/satellite fit. No mismatch flag — the committee maps cleanly onto the scheme.
- Pass-game family: McVay/Shanahan-tree hybrid with Erhardt-Perkins (NE) bones — moderate motion (52% of dropbacks), mid PA (23%), aDOT 8.2 (nfelo 2025). Implications: intermediate timing throws and YAC over vertical iso; slot (Noel) and TE (Schultz) get schemed underneath volume; Collins wins on contested intermediate/deep X routes rather than a pure vertical role.
Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math
Departed (2025 targets / carries, from receiving.csv / rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):
- Christian Kirk, WR — 52 tgt / 0 car → signed SF 1-yr/$6M, 2026-03-18 (49ers.com)
- Nick Chubb, RB — 20 tgt / 122 car → unsigned FA (elected free agency 3/6/2026 — Spotrac/OTC; no retirement announced)
- Dare Ogunbowale, RB — 13 tgt / 11 car → off roster (Ourlads 7/2/2026; landing spot UNVERIFIED)
- Braxton Berrios, WR — 8 tgt / 0 car → off roster (same)
- Dameon Pierce, RB — 1 tgt / 10 car → off roster (same)
- Joe Mixon, RB — 0 / 0 (missed all of 2025, foot) → cut before the 2026 league year (SI/Yardbarker FA tracker 3/2026)
Vacated targets: 94 · Vacated carries: 143 — under the 120-target feeding threshold, and both pools have named claimants (below): no green flag.
Arrivals (claim):
- David Montgomery, RB — trade from DET (cost: OL Juice Scruggs + 2026 4th + 2027 7th — NFL.com/detroitlions.com, 3/2026) + upgraded 2-yr/$16.5M, $6.5M signing bonus, ~$10M gtd (click2houston 2026-03-14). 2025 DET: 158 car, 716 yds, 8 TD; 29 tgt (
rushing.csv/receiving.csv). Presumptive claim on early-down/goal-line work. - Marlin Klein, TE — 2026 R2 #59 (Michigan) — real capital, but hamstring strain kept him out of minicamp, behind Stover/Moreau/Jordan (SI 2026-06-12)
- Foster Moreau, TE — vet depth (ESPN FA tracker)
- Lewis Bond, WR — 2026 R6 #204 (Boston College) — depth-tier only
- Tank Dell, WR — not an arrival, but a returning claim: out since Dec-2024 knee catastrophe, missed all of 2025, limited in minicamp, trending toward camp participation (SI 6/2026 "hype should be tempered")
Projected pecking order:
| # | Player | Alignment | Claim / note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nico Collins | X (LWR) | 120 tgt, 21.7% TS in 15 gms 2025 (~24%/gm); unquestioned alpha (receiving.csv; Ourlads 7/2) |
| 2 | Jayden Higgins | Z (RWR) | CONTESTED with Schultz for 2–3. 2025 R2; 68 tgt, 6 TD as rookie; "breakout year two" expectation, extensive first-team reps (SI 3/12 + 6/12/2026) |
| 3 | Dalton Schultz | TE | CONTESTED. 106 tgt in 2025 (2nd on team); extended ~$12M (SI 3/12/2026); volume floor is real but rookie-WR maturation eats into it |
| 4 | Jaylin Noel | Slot | 2025 R3; primary slot with the 1s all spring, "took the slot role and ran with it" (SI minicamp 6/12/2026, SI "significant role" 6/2026) |
| 5 | Woody Marks | RB | 36 tgt as rookie (led RB room); passing-down back holds the receiving role next to Montgomery |
| 6 | Tank Dell | Slot/Z | CONTESTED — health-dependent claim on Noel's slot snaps; not full-go until camp (SI 6/2026) |
Behind them: Xavier Hutchinson (57 tgt in 2025, now WR4/5), Christian Kirk's 52 targets redistribute to Noel/Higgins/Dell.
RB committee split: Early-down + goal-line: David Montgomery (trade capital + $10M gtd; "primary rusher" framing — SI 3/12/2026; 8 rush TD in DET 2025). Passing downs + change-of-pace: Woody Marks (196 car / 36 tgt as 2025 rookie — he keeps a meaningful early-down mix; this is a real 1A/1B, not a bell-cow). RB3: Jawhar Jordan (Ourlads 7/2). Mixon-era volume is fully consolidated into these two.
Game environment
- Vegas win total: 9.5 (Over −120 / Under +100), BetMGM, as of 2026-07-07 search → script lean: positive (≥9.5 band; 12 wins in 2025, 10+ in three straight years — BetMGM/CBS)
- Projected plays/game: 65 (2025 actual: 67.3 —
pbp_summary.csv; fast-pace + takeaway-driven extra possessions, trimmed ~2 for positive-script clock-kill) - Projected pass rate: ~59% of plays (2025: 60.8% raw with −1.0% PROE; Montgomery trade + OL spend signals a modest run-lean, positive script trims further)
- Projected pass attempts/game: ~33.5 · rush attempts/game: ~27. Inputs: 65 plays × 59% ≈ 38.4 dropbacks − ~1.9 sacks/gm − ~3 scrambles/throwaways ≈ 33.5 att (2025 actual: 34.2 on 582 team att); 65 × 41% ≈ 26.6 designed runs + scramble-classified carries ≈ 27 (2025 actual: 26.4).
Defensive identity
Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).
- Runs the defense: Matt Burke (DC) — confirmed. HC DeMeco Ryans called defensive plays 2023 through the 0-3 start of 2025, then handed play-calling to Burke (first Burke-called game ~Week 4 vs TEN, immediately preceding a shutout — NBC Sports PFT, 10/2025); Burke kept the job the rest of the way and returns as DC/play-caller for 2026 (staff announced 2026-03-07 — profootballnews.net; Burke interviewed for the ARI HC job and stayed — houstontexans.com coaches roster, 7/2026). Ryans (ex-SF DC) remains the scheme's architect and a heavy influence.
- Tenure with team: DC since 2023 (4th season) · New DC: no (
dc_new: false) — 2025 scheme stats carry. Continuity green flag: same DC ≥2 yrs + core defensive snaps returning (dst.md §3). - Front/scheme family: 4-down, one-gap penetrating front (SF/Ryans tree), zone-lean shell (matchquarters.com scheme breakdown; rates below)
| Metric | Value | Band | Source (as-of) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blitz rate | 23.9% (5+ rushers) | Mid (not blitz-reliant) | participation.csv, computed 2026-07-07 |
| Man coverage rate | 32.1% | Just under the 35% man-heavy threshold | same |
| Zone coverage rate | 67.9% | Zone-lean (below 78% zone-heavy) | same |
| Pressure rate generated | 23.6% of charted dropbacks (nflverse charting; runs a bit different from PFR defn) | Strong, sub-elite band | same |
| Sack rate | 7.54% (47 sacks) | Strong, just under 8.0% elite | def_summary.csv (2026-07-07) |
2025 results context: 17.35 PPG allowed (2nd), 277.2 total ypg allowed (1st, franchise record), 28 takeaways, −0.109 EPA/play allowed (def_summary.csv; bengals.com opponent preview 6/2026). Five Pro Bowlers: Anderson, Stingley, Al-Shaair, Lassiter, Bullock; All-Pro: Anderson (1st), Stingley (1st), Hunter (2nd).
- Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge/CB1 first):
- EDGE: no change at the top — the whole rush returns. Will Anderson Jr. fifth-year option exercised ($21.5M gtd 2027 — ESPN 4/2026); Danielle Hunter extended (bengals.com preview 6/2026). Depth adds: DE Logan Hall (2-yr/$14M), DE Dominique Robinson (1-yr/up to $4M) (ESPN FA tracker 3/2026).
- CB: no change — Stingley (1st-team All-Pro, 43.3% comp allowed when targeted) and Lassiter both return (SI top-25 roster ranking 6/2026).
- IN: S Reed Blankenship 3-yr/$24.75M from PHI (ESPN tracker); DT Kayden McDonald R2 #36 (trade-up); S Kamari Ramsey R5 #141; LBs Wade Woodaz R4 #123 / Aiden Fisher R7 #224 (houstontexans.com draft class 4/2026)
- OUT: LB Christian Harris → ATL; DT Tim Settle Jr. → WAS 3-yr/$25.5M (trackers 3/2026); S Jimmie Ward — off roster, landing spot UNVERIFIED. Off-ball/interior only — minimal fantasy-facing impact per dst.md §3.
- Shadow-CB tendency: Stingley travels situationally — matched with top perimeter WR1s (Davante Adams, Mike Evans, Brian Thomas Jr., Courtland Sutton) during 2025 per ESPN weekly shadow reports/torotimes, but he is not an every-week full-field shadow (historically sides-based). Treat as "travels vs elite perimeter X" for weekly reads.
Read: A four-man-rush defense that wins without blitzing (23.9% blitz, 47 sacks) behind the Anderson–Hunter edge duo, zone-lean but with enough man (32%) to matchup-hunt; the soft spot is scarce — opponents avoided Stingley and still completed under 44% on him. Everything that made it the #1 yardage defense returns, plus Blankenship and R2 interior beef: DST-eval profile is elite-floor, continuity-green-flag, with takeaway volume (28) the sustaining engine.
Stability & change log
- Stability: medium — per methodology §10: same play-caller (Caley, yr 2) + same QB1 (Stroud, locked through 2027) is the stable core, but the OL overhaul is one major change (only Ersery and Ingram locked at their 2025 positions; new LG/RT vets, likely rookie C, three open camp battles). Not low: no new caller, no QB competition. Note Caley has only one year of play-calling history, so tendency confidence is one-season thin even though he isn't "new."
- Watch items: (1) C battle — Rutledge (R1 rookie) vs Andrews; rookie-C interior pressure risk early; (2) slot battle — Dell's camp ramp-up vs Noel's spring hold on the job (fires the pecking order 4/6 slots); (3) Higgins vs Schultz target order — camp/early-season usage settles 2 vs 3; (4) Montgomery/Marks split drift — Marks' rookie-year volume argues this could tilt more 50/50 than the "primary rusher" framing; (5) Mills trade buzz — a trade downgrades backup tier B → C; (6) win-total movement ≥1.5 (currently 9.5).
| Date | Event | Sections touched | Stability after |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Initial build | all | medium |
Sources
data/stats/2025/pbp_summary.csv,def_summary.csv,receiving.csv,rushing.csv,passing.csv,snap_counts.csv,participation.csv,ftn_charting.csv— nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (motion/PA/personnel/coverage/blitz/pressure computed 2026-07-07)- click2houston 2026-01-21 (Caley returning as play-caller); ESPN 1/2026 (Caserio on Caley); NBC Sports PFT 6/2026 (Stroud–Caley communication); houstontexans.com coaches roster (Caley/Burke bios); profootballnews.net 2026-03-07 (official 2026 staff)
- NBC Sports PFT 10/2025 + Yahoo (Ryans hands defensive play-calling to Burke, first game vs TEN, post-0-3); matchquarters.com (scheme breakdown); rvmnews/lifezette 7/2026 (Burke HC-candidate status, ARI interview)
- NFL.com + detroitlions.com 3/2026 (Montgomery trade: Scruggs + 2026 4th + 2027 7th); click2houston 2026-03-14 + profootballrumors (upgraded 2-yr/$16.5M, $6.5M bonus, ~$10M gtd)
- ESPN Texans 2026 free-agency tracker (Braden Smith 2/$25M $13.5M gtd; Teller 2/$16M; Blankenship 3/$24.75M; Hall 2/$14M; Robinson 1/$4M; Moreau; Evan Brown 1/$3.5M; Ingram 3-yr; Rankins; Fairbairn record extension; Howard → CLE); SI/Yardbarker trackers 3/2026 (Mixon cut; Harris → ATL; Settle → WAS 3/$25.5M)
- houstontexans.com 2026 full draft class (R1 #26 Rutledge G, R2 #36 McDonald DT, R2 #59 Klein TE, R4 #106 Nwaiwu G, R4 #123 Woodaz LB, R5 #141 Ramsey S, R6 #204 Bond WR, R7 #224 Fisher LB)
- SI depth-chart projection 2026-03-12 (post-Smith/Montgomery lineup, Schultz ~$12M extension); SI mandatory-minicamp takeaways 2026-06-12 (OL battles, Noel slot, Dell ramp, Klein hamstring); SI "Early Signs Point to Significant Role for Jaylin Noel" + "Tank Dell Hype Should Be Tempered" 6/2026
- Ourlads HOU depth chart, updated 2026-07-02 (QB/RB/WR/TE/OL order; Pierce/Ogunbowale/Berrios/Chubb off roster)
- 49ers.com 2026-03-18 (Kirk 1-yr/$6M); Spotrac/OverTheCap (Chubb elected FA 3/6/2026, unsigned); profootballnetwork/CBS (Mills $8.1M final year, trade buzz)
- ESPN 4/2026 (Stroud $25.9M + Anderson $21.5M fifth-year options exercised, fully gtd)
- bengals.com 2026 opponent preview 6/2026 (Hunter extension; 277.2 ypg #1, 17.4 ppg #2; All-Pro/Pro Bowl honors); ESPN shadow reports + torotimes (Stingley travel usage 2025); SI top-25 roster 6/2026
- nfeloapp.com NFL team tendencies, 2025 season, fetched 2026-07-07 (PROE −1.0%, raw pass 60%, aDOT 8.2, TOP 31:41)
- BetMGM win total: HOU over/under 9.5 (O −120/U +100), as of 2026-07-07 search; CBS Sports betting preview (trend context)