New York Giants

NYG — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

2025 context: Giants went 4-13; HC Brian Daboll was fired 2025-11-10 after a 2-8 start (now TEN HC), Mike Kafka went 2-5 as interim (Wikipedia 2025 NYG season / ESPN, fetched 2026-07-07). The franchise then rebuilt everything around QB Jaxson Dart: John Harbaugh hired HC 2026-01-17, Matt Nagy OC (2026-02-03), Dennard Wilson DC (2026-01-25), staff announced 2026-02-18 with 14 ex-Ravens assistants incl. run-game coordinator Greg Roman, pass-game coordinator/QB coach Brian Callahan, OL coach Mike Bloomgren, ST coordinator Chris Horton (giants.com staff announcement, 2026-02-18; Wikipedia 2026 NYG season).

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Matt Nagy (OC) — presumed-to-confirmed: SI/Big Blue coverage states Nagy "will serve as the overall play-caller" with Roman running the run game and Callahan the pass game (SI Giants "How Giants New Offensive Coaching Trio Can Elevate the Offense," Feb 2026; ESPN "Matt Nagy leads loaded offensive staff," Feb 2026). No reporting contradicts it as of 2026-07-07. Harbaugh has never called offensive plays.
• Tenure with team: Year 1 · Prior relationship with QB1: none — first year with Dart; scheme retains the RPO volume Dart ran at Ole Miss and as a 2025 rookie (SI Giants scheme piece, May 2026)

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years — Nagy did NOT call plays as KC OC 2023–25, Andy Reid did; he took over KC calls only for the final stretch of 2017 and called "the majority" of his four Bears seasons, ceding to Bill Lazor for stretches of 2020–21 — SI Giants, Feb 2026):

Read: Nagy is a Reid-tree west-coast caller with heavy RPO/misdirection and tempo elements — his 2018 Bears were 2nd in RPO rate and his stated 2026 plan pairs that with Greg Roman's power run game, more under-center snaps, and more play-action for Dart (SI Giants "4 Staples of Nagy's Offense" + "How the Giants Rebuilt Their Offense," May 2026). His Bears play-calling record was volume-mediocre and he twice ceded calls, so treat every tendency as low-confidence; the Harbaugh/Roman/Ricard overlay points run-lean and TE/FB-heavy, not spread. Roster adjustment: Dart's legs (86 car, 487 yds, 9 rush TD in 14 games — nflverse rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07) keep an RPO/QB-run component that caps dropback volume; the 2025 Daboll/Kafka profile (59.3% pass rate, 67.1 plays/gm, 17.4% no-huddle, 30.8% motion, 22.6% PA — nflverse pbp_summary/FTN, pulled 2026-07-07) is void for projection except as roster evidence. Year-1 install drag applies (methodology §9).

QB situation

• QB1: Jaxson Dart — R1 pick 25 of the 2025 draft, 14 starts as a rookie (216/339, 2,272 yds, 15 TD, 5 INT, 35 sacks + 9 rush TD — nflverse passing/rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07); the entire coaching hire was built around developing him. Benching risk: none
• Backup: Jameis Winston — tier B: functional high-variance veteran, under contract ($3.95M 2026 base — Big Blue View 53-man projection, June 2026); went 37/66, 567 yds in 3 games for NYG in 2025 (nflverse)
• Contingency line: If Dart misses time: Winston, tier B — pass attempts hold or rise but the QB-run/RPO component (and its goal-line TD equity) disappears; aDOT holds or climbs (Winston pushes downfield), INT/turnover variance spikes, WR1 treatment holds, RB rushing efficiency loses light boxes. Every pass-catcher keeps volume but loses floor.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT (Ourlads 2026-07-07; empiresportsmedia/NFL.com post-draft): LT Andrew Thomas (elite when healthy; only 802 snaps in 2025 — durability flag), LG Jon Runyan Jr., C John Michael Schmitz, RG Francis Mauigoa (ROOKIE, R1 #10 — college tackle converting to guard; replaces Greg Van Roten's 1,150 snaps), RT Jermaine Eluemunor (re-signed 3-yr, ~$13M/yr; allowed pressure on just 3.3% of pass plays in 2025 — empiresportsmedia/NFL.com, April 2026). Depth: Marcus Mbow (2025 R5), Evan Neal (1-yr re-sign, tackle), Aaron Stinnie, Joshua Ezeudu (ESPN FA tracker, fetched 2026-07-07).
• Interior vs edge: edges are the strength (Thomas + Eluemunor — one of the better tackle pairs in football when Thomas is upright); interior is the question — Schmitz mid-tier, and a rookie R1 at RG means expect early-season interior pressure spikes even on a good unit (methodology §4): fade deep-aDOT efficiency weeks 1–4, quick game/RPO and TE/RB outlets gain. Beat/team optimism is real ("top-10 line" — Eluemunor via NFL.com, April 2026) but is a projection, not a rank.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: gap/power-lean with FB — Greg Roman run-game coordinator + FB Patrick Ricard (2-yr) + 339-lb Mauigoa at RG is a downhill, heavy-personnel "bully ball" identity (SI Giants win-total piece, June 2026; SI scheme pieces, May 2026), with the RPO/QB-read layer preserved for Dart. RB fits: Skattebo (downhill mass, contact balance, goal-line hammer) is the scheme fit; Tracy's lateral burst fits the change-of-pace/space role.
• Pass-game family: West coast (Reid tree) + RPO/spread elements, rising PA and under-center rate (SI Giants, May 2026). Implications: short-timing throws and manufactured touches keep aDOT modest and PPR floors healthy; TE/FB route participation up (12/21 personnel), which gates WR3/WR4 snaps; play-action feeds the intermediate game once installed.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (2025 targets / carries — nflverse receiving.csv & rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07):

• WR Wan'Dale Robinson — 140 tgt / 3 car (slot; 27.8% target share) → signed with TEN, reuniting with Daboll (ESPN FA tracker; Wikipedia 2026 NYG season — contract terms UNVERIFIED)
• TE Daniel Bellinger — 26 tgt → TEN (ESPN FA tracker)
• QB Russell Wilson — 119 pass att / 18 car — not on 2026 roster (Ourlads/ESPN depth charts, 2026-07-07)
• WR Gunner Olszewski (13 tgt), WR Lil'Jordan Humphrey (10 tgt), WR Ray-Ray McCloud (1 tgt) — 2026 roster status UNVERIFIED; not listed on Ourlads two-deep

Vacated targets: ~166 (headline: Robinson 140 + Bellinger 26) · Vacated carries: ~22 — the target vacancy is real but was re-claimed with heavy capital (Likely money + Mooney + R3 Fields), so it is NOT an uncontested feeding opportunity per methodology §6.

Arrivals (claim): TE Isaiah Likely — 3-yr/$40M, up to $47.5M, ~3rd-highest-paid TE (giants.com/baltimoreravens.com, March 2026) — top-10 positional money = presumptive claim; WR Darnell Mooney (1-yr, up to $10M), WR Calvin Austin III (1-yr, $4.5M), WR Malachi Fields (R3 #74, Notre Dame — big perimeter X), WR Odell Beckham Jr., WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR Braxton Berrios (1-yr, $1.3M each — camp-body money), FB Patrick Ricard (2-yr), WR Isaiah Hodgins re-signed (ESPN FA tracker + Wikipedia 2026 NYG season, fetched 2026-07-07).

Projected pecking order (Ourlads 2026-07-07 + minicamp reporting June 2026 + contract/capital claims):

Also holding claims: RB Tyrone Tracy Jr. (48 tgt 2025), WR Calvin Austin III (slot battle, PR role vs Berrios), WR Malachi Fields (R3 — X snaps early if Nabers is out), OBJ/JuJu (veteran depth). If Nabers opens on PUP, everyone shifts up one and Fields/OBJ enter the 11-personnel picture (Big Blue View, June 2026).

Slot WR call: Calvin Austin III plays the slot most (first-team slot through spring — NY Sports Day 2026-06-07; Ourlads SWR1 2026-07-07), with Mooney the contested alternative who also takes outside snaps — mark CONTESTED until camp settles it.

RB committee split (Ourlads order 2026-07-07 + scheme fit): Skattebo = early-down lead + goal-line hammer (5 rush TD in 8 gm 2025; RB1 on Ourlads; cleared 11-on-11 at June minicamp after October ankle dislocation surgery — SNY/B-R, June 2026), Tracy = change-of-pace + passing downs (176 car / 48 tgt in 2025), Singletary = veteran depth/short-yardage insurance (still rostered — BBV 53-man, June 2026). Contested at the margins, not at the top — but Dart is the goal-line vulture (9 rush TD 2025), a permanent tax on both backs' TD equity.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 7.5 (over −110 / under −110, BetMGM, page updated 2026-05-20); opened/eyed at 8.5 at BetOnline (Sharp Football, March 2026) → script lean: neutral
• Projected plays/game: ~62.5 · Projected pass rate: ~55% of plays (dropbacks)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~30 · rush attempts/game: ~28 (show inputs)
• Inputs: NYG 2025 = 67.1 plays/gm, 59.3% dropback rate (nflverse pbp_summary, pulled 2026-07-07) — both inflated by negative script and 17.4% no-huddle under a fired staff, void under the new one; Harbaugh/Roman/Nagy power identity + year-1 install drag = below-average pace (−4/−5 plays); neutral 7.5 win total = no script bonus. 62.5 × 0.55 ≈ 34.4 dropbacks − ~2.4 sacks − ~2 Dart scrambles ≈ 30 att; 62.5 × 0.45 ≈ 28 rushes (incl. ~5–6 Dart designed/scramble carries).

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Dennard Wilson (DC, hired 2026-01-25 from TEN) — presumed play-caller: Harbaugh's coordinators have always called their units and no reporting contradicts it (giants.com staff announcement 2026-02-18; NBC PFT 2026-01)
• Tenure with team: Year 1 · New DC: YES → new-DC protocol; NYG's 2025 scheme stats under Shane Bowen are VOID (recorded below only as personnel evidence: man 40.3% / zone 59.7%, blitz 30.5%, charted pressure 30.2%, sack rate 6.25% — nflverse participation/def_summary, pulled 2026-07-07)
• Front/scheme family: hybrid 3-4 "Ravens-Lite," ~70% of snaps in a 2-4-5 nickel shell, quarters-based coverage with press aspirations (MatchQuarters breakdown of TEN 2025, Feb 2026)

Wilson's prior-stop rates (TEN 2025, his defense — the operative prior):

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge and CB1 first):
• Edge: full continuity — Brian Burns, Abdul Carter (2025 R1 #3), Kayvon Thibodeaux all return (Ourlads 2026-07-07); this is the unit's pressure engine and it fits Wilson's odd-front OLB usage. No premium edge added or lost.
• CB: IN Greg Newsome II (1-yr, $8–10M — ESPN FA tracker) as CB2; OUT Cor'Dale Flott → TEN. CB1 Paulson Adebo returns; Deonte Banks demoted to the two-deep; R2 #37 Colton Hood adds capital; Dru Phillips holds the nickel (Ourlads 2026-07-07).
• Interior: OUT Dexter Lawrence — traded to CIN for pick #10 (giants.com trade story, 2026); a real interior-pressure loss even though IDL moves normally barely register (§8) — Lawrence was an outlier pass-rusher. IN: NT DJ Reader (from DET) to anchor the odd front (Ourlads; ESPN DET tracker, March 2026).
• Off-ball/LB: IN Tremaine Edmunds (3-yr/$36M) + R1 #5 Arvell Reese (Ohio State); S room: Jevon Holland returns, Ar'Darius Washington (ex-BAL) in, Dane Belton → NYJ (ESPN/Wikipedia, fetched 2026-07-07). Minor fantasy signal, big scheme-install signal.
• Shadow-CB tendency: UNVERIFIED — no 2025/2026 shadow reporting found for Adebo or Newsome under Wilson; TEN 2025 played sides/quarters structure.

Read: Expect a zone-leaning (~73% at his last stop), quarters-based hybrid 3-4 that rushes four-plus-simulated looks rather than blitzing (22.9%), living off edge talent — and Burns/Carter/Thibodeaux is a better rush than Wilson ever had in Tennessee, while losing Dexter Lawrence moves pressure from the interior to the edges. Year-1 install drag + a re-built back seven = cap DST confidence (dc_new: true); coverage read for /weekly-edge: upgrades opposing option-route slots/YAC profiles, downgrades man-beater arguments until charted otherwise.

Stability & change log

• Stability: low — per methodology §10: two-plus major changes — (1) new play-caller/new HC (Nagy year 1, presumed caller with a spotty calling history), (2) unresolved top-of-depth-chart battles (slot WR Austin-vs-Mooney; WR1 Nabers health with PUP expected; RB order Skattebo/Tracy re-forming under a new scheme). QB1 continuity (Dart) and 4/5 OL returning are the anchors that keep this from being a total teardown. §9 applies: 2025 motion/personnel/PA/pace numbers are void; scheme-dependent roles (Wan'Dale-style manufactured slot touches) are void until re-established under Nagy.
• Watch items: (1) Nabers PUP/activation timeline and Week 1 status — the single biggest value swing on the roster; (2) hard preseason confirmation Nagy calls plays; (3) slot battle Austin vs Mooney (vs Berrios roster squeeze); (4) Skattebo camp workload confirming the ankle is fully cleared; (5) RG Mauigoa's guard conversion (interior pressure early); (6) Thomas health; (7) win-total moves ≥1.5 (currently 7.5–8.5 range across books); (8) TE snap split Likely/Johnson in 12 personnel.