Don't Look at My Team

Jaxson Dart — QB, NYG — 2026

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 113.6 / QB15 (FFC PPR mocks, 1QB basis, 2026-07-07). Dart was QB7 per game as a rookie in this scoring (20.55 PPG over 12 starts) on elite rushing-usage bands — 7.0 carries and 40.6 rush yards per start, a 33.3% share of team red-zone carries in his weeks — with zero job risk and a 2026 franchise reboot (Harbaugh/Nagy/Roman) built explicitly around him. The market's case for QB15 is real: 9 rush TDs against 4.52 rushing xTD is a heater, the designed-run rate halved after his Week 10 concussion, and the new staff talks openly about reducing his rushing burden. Why the market is wrong: even after stripping *all* the TD and INT luck, his usage-based rookie value was ~17.9 PPG (~QB13) — so pick 113.6 pays his luck-adjusted floor and gives zero credit for the year-2 distribution: age-23 QB, pbp CPOE ≈ 0, upgraded weapons (Likely, Mooney, Fields, Nabers back), 4/5 OL returning, and a run-game coordinator (Greg Roman) with the most extensive designed-QB-run résumé in modern football. The rushing floor is intact at a QB12+ price — an explicit green flag (qb.md §12) — and the downside at this cost is a free cut. Verdict is TARGET rather than MUST-HAVE because the edge is not high-confidence: the staff's stated hit-reduction plan, the late-2025 designed-run cut, and the concussion history all attack the same thesis pillar.

Bull case

Elite, already-demonstrated Konami usage at a round-10 price: 7.0 carries / 40.6 rush yds per start, 33.3% team RZ carry share, 12 inside-10 carries and a 9.2% scramble rate — every rushing band in the opportunity table sits elite, and it cashed QB7 per game (20.55 PPG) as a rookie. "Rushing volume intact at a QB12+ price" is the system's brightest green flag, and no QB near this ADP offers it.
The market prices the regression and none of the growth: luck-adjusted 2025 was still ~17.9 PPG (~QB13) — i.e., QB15 cost pays the *stripped* baseline. Age 23, positive EPA/dropback and near-zero pbp CPOE on a 4–13 team missing its alpha WR from Week 4, now handed Likely + Mooney + Fields + a returning Nabers, 4/5 OL back, and a staff whose run-game coordinator turned Lamar Jackson, Kaepernick, and Tyrod Taylor into the best rushing floors of their eras. The year-2 distribution is fat to the right and costs nothing.
Asymmetry in 1QB: median (~285) ≈ QB11–13 totals for a 10th-round pick; the 80th-percentile (~340) is a QB4–6 league-winner if Roman's read-option install meets the rookie usage; the 20th-percentile outcome is dropped for a free streamer. Compare: Caleb Williams (106.3) and Stafford (100.9) cost more for flatter distributions.

Bear case

The QB7 finish was a goal-line heater: 9 rush TDs on 4.52 rushing xTD (+27 pts ≈ 2.2 PPG of pure TD luck) and a 5-INT ledger against 6.8 IW-implied interceptions. Anchored properly, rookie Dart was a fringe-QB1 per game, not a top-7 one — and his 28.2 att/gm pass volume in a PROE ≈ −4 offense leaves no passing cushion when the rush TDs normalize.
The rushing thesis is being actively managed against: designed carries were already cut in half after the concussion (4.4 → 1.8/gm), and the new regime's stated plan — Ricard/Mauigoa "eliminating the burden on Dart as a runner," a sliding mandate, more under-center play-action — points the same direction. If the designed package settles ≤2.5/gm, the floor is scramble-dependent (coverage- and OL-modulated), which qb.md §2 calls fragile.
Durability and pocket-craft warts compound: five blue-tent checks in 10 games plus a two-week concussion as a rookie; 30% pressure rate with a 28.2% pressure-to-sack conversion (concern band, 15/35 sacks QB-fault); NGS CPOE −2.03; and June 2026 minicamp beats flagged the deep ball and new under-center footwork as active problems. A slow install + one more concussion is a sub-150-point season at a pick you could have spent on a WR4 who plays 17 weeks.

Projection & comps

	Floor (20th)	Median	Ceiling (80th)
Points (PPR assumed, 4pt pass TD, −1 INT)	195	285	340

Build (bottom-up per scoring-framework §2, volume inputs from data/team-profiles/NYG.md: ~62.5 plays/gm × ~55% dropback rate ≈ 34.4 dropbacks/gm):

Passing (median): 34.4 dropbacks/gm − ~7.5% sacks (improved from his 8.5% rookie rate on OL continuity + Nagy quick game) − ~9% scrambles ≈ 28.7 att/gm × 17 ≈ 488 attempts × 7.0 YPA (6.70 rookie YPA in a fired-staff offense that lost Nabers in Week 4; modest weapons/year-2 bump net of install drag) ≈ 3,415 yds (136.6 pts). Pass TDs anchored to passing xTD, not actuals: his 2025 xTD rate was 4.19%/att (14.29 xTD on 341), bumped to 4.3% for the Likely/Nabers RZ upgrade → 21 pass TDs (84). INTs from INT-worthy rate, not the 5-INT ledger: 2.93% IW × 68% league conversion ≈ 2.0% → 10 INTs (−10).
Rushing (median, projected separately — it is the floor): designed ~3.5/gm (between his 3.4 full-season and 4.4 pre-concussion rates; Roman read-option install vs. staff protection offsetting) + scrambles ~3.1/gm (9.2% of dropbacks, sticky QB trait at 23) ≈ 6.6 carries/gm × 17 ≈ 112 carries × 5.8 YPC (rookie non-kneel 6.23, mildly regressed) ≈ 650 yds (65). Rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (4.52 in 2025 at a 5.4%/carry expected rate), volume-scaled and trimmed for Skattebo's goal-line claim → 5.5 (33). Fumbles: 2 lost in 2025 → project 3 (−6).
Sums to ~303 at 17 games; stated median 285 prices ~1 expected missed game (concussion history + contact-seeking style). Floor 195 ≈ 13 games with the run package held at the late-2025 level (~2 designed/gm) and 6.5 YPA under install drag. Ceiling 340 ≈ 16–17 games, Roman leans in (~5 designed/gm, ~800 rush yds), healthy Nabers pushes YPA ~7.3 — a QB4–6 totals season.

Games risk: high — one official concussion (Week 10 vs CHI, missed Weeks 11–12) plus five blue-tent evaluations in 10 games dating to the 2025 preseason (ESPN, Dec 2025), 7.0 carries/start right at the heavy-runner nudge line, and a documented reluctance to slide he is only now unlearning (NFL.com, 2026-05-23). Per qb.md §3 the risk is priced in games, not per-game usage.

Comp seasons (this scoring where computed from data on file): Drake Maye 2025 (358.8 — the full year-2-leap-under-new-staff outcome), Caleb Williams 2025 (315.0 — year-2 QB, new regime, median-plus), Baker Mayfield 2025 (282.9 — the median shape in totals), Jalen Hurts 2021 and Daniel Jones 2022 (structural comps — low-volume passing + 650–800-yd QB run game, the latter on this same franchise; totals UNVERIFIED, pre-2024 data not on file).

External projections: none on file (data/projections/ absent) — no cross-check available, noted per SKILL §4.

Usage profile (opportunity core, 2025 REG, per-start basis over his 12 starts)

Metric	Value	Band	Read
Rush att/gm	7.0 (84 non-cameo carries/12 starts)	elite (≥7)	Top-of-league weekly-floor input, produced as a rookie
Designed rush rate	5.49% of team plays (41/747 in his start weeks)	good (4–8%)	Real play-caller commitment — but see the back-half split below
Scramble rate	9.2% (38/413 dropbacks)	elite (≥6%)	Sticky QB trait at 23; 290 yds at 7.6 YPC
Rush yds/gm	40.6 (487/12)	elite (≥35)	Worth ~101 pass yds/gm of equivalent value in 4pt scoring
RZ rush share	33.3% (22 of 66 team RZ carries, his weeks; 22.4% full season)	elite (≥18%)	Massive TD access for a QB
Inside-5 carries	7 (inside-10: 12; 5 QB sneaks)	good (5–10)	Real goal-line role, short of the ≥10 elite gate
Rushing xTD	4.52 (actual 9)	good band, but +4.5 over expectation	The single biggest regression in this profile — anchor 2026 at ~5–6, never 9
Dropbacks/gm	34.4 (413/12)	good (33–38)	Healthy dropback base
Pass att/gm	28.2 (339/12)	just above concern (<27)	The structural cap: sacks + scrambles eat dropbacks; volume passer he is not
Team PROE	−3.89 (his start weeks; −4.08 season)	at the concern line (≤−4%)	Run-lean under the old staff; new staff identity points more run-lean — void for projection but directionally confirmed
xFP	~17.9 PPG derived (actual 246.6 over 12 starts, minus rush-TD (−26.9), pass-TD (−2.8) and INT (−1.8) luck vs xTD/IW) ≈ QB12–13 per game	QB1/2 fringe	The luck-adjusted rookie baseline the market is pricing at QB15. Provider xFP UNVERIFIED (no export on file)

The split that matters (qb.md §2/§12): designed carries ran 4.4/gm weeks 4–10, then 1.8/gm weeks 13–18 after the concussion — a textbook "designed-rush rate halved over the back half" red flag. Mitigation: it was injury-protection under a fired interim staff, not a talent/scheme verdict, and the incoming staff's read-option install is a stated feature (SI Giants, May–June 2026). Unmitigated, it is the floor case.

Efficiency (QB-owned vs environment-owned):

Metric	2025	Band	Read
EPA/dropback	+0.050 (413 db)	good (barely)	Positive as a rookie on a 4–13 team — genuine signal
CPOE	pbp −0.19 / NGS −2.03	neutral / concern	Mixed accuracy read; pbp basis passes the year-2-leap screen (≥0), NGS fails it. QB-owned, the open talent question
Pressure-to-sack	28.2% (35 sacks / 124 pressures; 30.0% pressure rate)	concern (>24%)	Worst QB-owned wart; FTN charges 15/35 sacks as QB-fault. Sticky — caps efficiency until fixed
INT-worthy rate (FTN IW/att — TWP proxy)	2.93% (10/341); league 3.19%	good (2.5–3.5%)	Better than league — but actual INT rate 1.47% vs 2.17% league means the clean ledger was part luck; project ~10, not 5
Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds)	13.3% (45/339)	elite (≥12%)	Ceiling source is real — though minicamp 2026 beats flag deep-ball timing as his install problem
aDOT	8.18 (NGS intended 8.30)	elite band (7.5–9.5)	Healthy depth profile, not a checkdown QB
Play-action rate	22.8% of dropbacks (RPO 4.1%)	good	Play-caller-owned; Nagy/Roman plan explicitly raises PA and under-center rate

Archetype (qb.md §10): dual-threat — rush yds/gm ≥35 with an RZ rush role and a real (if low-volume) passing game; the only profile worth paying for in 1QB/4pt, here available at a price that doesn't ask you to pay. Pattern (§11): year-2 leap screen — CPOE ≥0 (pbp) ✓, rushing usage ✓, upgraded pass-catchers ✓, retained play-caller ✗ (though the replacement tree is *more* QB-run-friendly than the fired one).

Context (from data/team-profiles/NYG.md, built 2026-07-07)

Regime: total teardown rebuilt around Dart — Harbaugh HC (2026-01-17), Matt Nagy OC and presumed play-caller, Greg Roman run-game coordinator, Brian Callahan QB coach. Nagy is a Reid-tree west-coast caller (2018 Bears: 2nd in RPO rate) with a spotty, volume-mediocre calling record; the Roman/Ricard/Mauigoa overlay is gap/power "bully ball" with a read-option layer preserved for Dart. Profile stability: low — every 2025 NYG tendency stat is void; year-1 install drag applies.
Volume environment: ~62.5 plays/gm at ~55% dropback rate → ~34 dropbacks, ~29 att/gm — bottom-quartile pass volume by design. Vegas win total 7.5 (BetMGM, 2026-05-20) = neutral script, no garbage-time subsidy, no clock-killing cap.
O-line: 4/5 returning; Thomas/Eluemunor a top tackle pair when healthy; rookie R1 Mauigoa converting to RG = expected early interior pressure spikes — fade deep-ball efficiency weeks 1–4, quick game and outlets gain.
Weapons: Wan'Dale Robinson's 140 targets left, re-claimed with heavy capital — Likely (3yr/$40M), Mooney, R3 Fields, plus Nabers back from ACL but health-contested (second cleanup surgery, PUP expected, Week 1 in doubt — Schefter/SI, April–June 2026). Materially better than the corps Dart threw to after Week 4 of 2025, if Nabers plays.
Job security: absolute — the entire hire was organized around developing him; backup is bridge-tier Winston. No benching-risk discount required.
Health/usage management: the staff added Ricard and Mauigoa partly to "eliminate the burden on Dart as a runner" (SI Giants, May 2026); Dart is being coached into situational sliding ("what times it's worth it… making those mature decisions" — NFL.com, 2026-05-23) and reports arriving "leaner… probably the most mobile I've been" (same). Designed runs stay in the playbook conditional on the sliding buy-in (gmenhq/SI, June 2026). Read: rushing *volume* likely holds near 6–7/gm; the tail-risk hit exposure is being managed down — good for games played, mildly bearish for rush ceiling.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Any new concussion or head-injury evaluation — camp, preseason, or regular season. Games-risk is already high; a second documented concussion moves the profile toward AVOID at any starter price.
Camp/preseason reports the QB-run package is minimal — beat confirmation that designed runs/read-option are out of the install (or Dart carries ≤2 designed/gm through September). The rushing floor is the thesis.
ADP rises inside ~pick 85 / QB10–11 — at starter-premium cost this becomes dead-zone 1QB pricing (qb.md §9) and the verdict drops to HOLD/FADE.
Nabers ruled out long-term (PUP into the season or re-injury) with no equivalent capital added — re-derive YPA and passing xTD downward; median loses ~15–20 points.
Play-caller churn — Harbaugh stripping Nagy of calls (his history: twice ceded calls in Chicago) or any mid-camp reshuffle; every passing-environment input in §4 is Nagy-presumption-based.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ — passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv, injuries.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07; REG-only derived tables). 2024: no NFL data — rookie.
nflverse play-by-play 2025 (loaded via nflreadpy 2026-07-07, REG): dropbacks (413), EPA/dropback, CPOE (pbp basis), designed-vs-scramble split (41/38 + 7 kneels), RZ/inside-10/inside-5 carries, team RZ carry shares, deep-ball rate, weekly designed-run splits, NYG PROE (pass_oe), and xTD (league TD-rate-by-yardline buckets applied to Dart's carry/attempt distribution): rushing xTD 4.52, passing xTD 14.29.
Derived pressure and TWP-proxy rates: participation.csv was_pressure (124 pressures/413 dropbacks; pressure-to-sack 28.2%) + ftn_charting.csv is_interception_worthy (10/341 = 2.93%; league 3.19%, 68% IW→INT conversion), is_play_action 22.8%, is_rpo 4.1%, is_qb_sneak 5, is_qb_fault_sack 15/35 — joined on game/play id, computed 2026-07-07. IW rate is a TWP proxy (excludes fumble-worthy plays); PFF TWP UNVERIFIED (no export on file).
League-scoring PPG rank (4pt pass TD, −1 INT): computed from nflverse weekly 2025, QBs ≥8 games of 10+ attempts — Dart 20.55 PPG, QB7 (computed 2026-07-07).
data/team-profiles/NYG.md (built 2026-07-07): Harbaugh/Nagy/Roman staff and play-caller presumption, volume inputs (~62.5 plays, ~55% dropback), OL, weapons/vacated-target math, Nabers health, win total 7.5 (BetMGM, updated 2026-05-20), Winston backup tier.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — 113.6, QB15 on the ffc-ppr (1QB) rows; ffc-2qb rows excluded from the 1QB order.
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 23 (DOB 2003-05-13), Ole Miss, years_exp 1, 6'2"/223, QB1, no injury status (as of 2026-07-07).
Web (fetched 2026-07-07): NFL.com "mature scrambling decisions" (2026-05-23) — sliding coaching, Weeks 11–12 concussion absence, "leaner/most mobile" quote; ESPN (Dec 2025) — fifth blue-tent check in 10 games incl. preseason; NFL.com/giants.com (Nov 2025) — Week 10 concussion, protocol clearance; SI Giants "How the Giants Rebuilt Their Offense" + minicamp deep-ball reports (May–June 2026); gmenhq (June 2026) — designed runs conditional on sliding; giants.com OTA/minicamp trackers (June 2026).
UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler); PFF TWP; PFR-definition pressure rate; pre-2024 comp-season point totals. League scoring assumed (full PPR, 4pt pass TD, 1QB, no TE premium) pending league-settings.md confirmation.