Cody Schrader

Cody Schrader — RB, DEN — 2026 evaluation

Team correction (material): the evaluation request listed Schrader as TB. That is wrong. Every source checked places him on Denver: nflverse 2025 roster (status DEV, DEN practice squad — pulled 2026-07-07), the Sleeper players dump (team: DEN, depth_chart_order 7, 2026-07-07), this repo's ADP file (DEN, 2026-07-08), denverbroncos.com player page, ESPN, and Wikipedia (waiver claim 2025-12-15; futures contract 2026-01-26). Tampa Bay's 2026 transactions show no Schrader signing, and TB's RB room (Irving/Gainwell/Tucker — data/team-profiles/TB.md, 2026-07-07) has no vacancy he was signed into. He IS on a 90-man roster — Denver's — so he is evaluated as a Bronco.

Verdict

AVOID (high confidence) at an undrafted ADP. Schrader is Denver's RB6: locked behind the Dobbins/Harvey/Coleman "three-headed monster" AND behind Jaleel McLaughlin (camp frontrunner) and Tyler Badie for the one open RB4 spot — a spot Sean Payton treats as a gameday inactive (SI Broncos, 2026-07-06). He fails all three legs of the handcuff test (rb.md §7): the offense is good and the starter fragile, but succession clarity is zero — he is roughly sixth in line for touches. Pedigree offers no rescue: 2024 UDFA (capital = none), RAS 2.28, P4 breakout at age 24, and he turns 27 on 2026-09-08 with 2 career NFL touches. Why-the-market-is-wrong line: it isn't — undrafted is the correct price; this AVOID formalizes "do not roster": with the contingent path quadruple-blocked, even a free bench spot or waiver claim spent here is misallocated versus live darts (per the low-standalone/low-contingent "roster clog" quadrant, rb.md §7).

Projection & comps

Scoring basis: half PPR (0.5/rec), confirmed in league-settings.md 2026-07-08. Note: the evaluation request assumed "PPR (assumed)" because settings were placeholders when it was written; the confirmed file supersedes that. For this player the format difference is immaterial (<2 pts at the ceiling).

Bottom-up: median scenario = loses the camp battle (he is listed third of three for the last spot), reverts to practice squad or is waived → 0 touches, 0 points. Ceiling (80th pct) = sneaks onto the 53 or earns late-season elevations: ~15 carries × ~4.0 + ~3 rec / 20 yds ≈ 9–12 half-PPR points, TD odds negligible with Harvey/Dobbins owning the goal line (Harvey 7 rush TDs in 2025 — data/stats/2025/rushing.csv).

• Floor: 0 · Median: 0 · Ceiling: 12 (half-PPR, 17-game season)
• Games-played risk: high — the risk is roster status itself, not injury.
• Comps (role-based): his own 2024 (LA RB4/PS: 1 car, 1 rec, 0.9 PPR — data/stats/2024); his own 2025 (0 touches across LA/JAX/HOU/DEN); Tyler Badie 2023-24-style RB4 seasons; Badie 2025 DEN (8 car/31 tgt, 35.4 PPR — the *on-roster* RB4 outcome he'd first have to take from Badie); Jaleel McLaughlin 2025 (37 car in an injury window, 31.4 PPR — the everything-breaks-right shape, which still required being RB4 on the 53).
• External projections: none exist for him in data/projections/ (directory absent) — consistent with a zero projection. UNVERIFIED elsewhere.

Usage profile (rb.md §2 table)

No NFL role has ever existed to measure. Career: 1 carry, 1 target/reception, 2 offensive snaps (2024 Wk18, LA — data/stats/2024/rushing.csv, receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv). 2025: zero offensive snaps (Wk1 LA, 4 ST snaps — data/stats/2025/snap_counts.csv).

Receiving profile (§3), game-script (§4), efficiency (§5): all N/A at the NFL level. Scheme fit (§6): Denver runs a mixed zone/gap Payton system favoring all-purpose backs (DEN.md); Schrader profiled in college as a downhill volume grinder without receiving-down polish — no notable fit edge either way, and fit is moot without a role.

Pedigree screen (prospect-pedigree.md), applied hard:

• Capital: 2024 UDFA (SF) → "screens require *demonstrated* NFL usage first." He has 2 touches. Fail.
• College production: D2 dominator at Truman State (2,074 yds, led D2, 2021 — age 22), then Missouri walk-on: 2023 = 276-1,627-14, school record, 8th in Heisman voting — but at age 24, the textbook late-breakout concern. Fail on age-adjustment; the raw production is the only bull signal he has.
• Receiving: 111 career college receptions clears the ≥40 bar nominally, but 60 came at D2; 51 over two Mizzou years (191 yds final season) is modest. Weak pass.
• Athletic testing: RAS 2.28 (2024 combine class, Steelers Depot RAS roundup); 4.61s 40 at 202 lbs → speed score ≈ 89.6 (computed from Wikipedia-listed pro measurements). Fails the "sub-P4 dominance needs RAS ≥8 confirmation" rule outright.
• Mileage/age: ~1,036 college touches (925 car + 111 rec, Wikipedia/Sports-Reference), turns 27 on 2026-09-08 — hits the rb.md §8 age marker before ever holding an NFL role. He is only ~9 months younger than J.K. Dobbins, the starter.

Context (data/team-profiles/DEN.md, 2026-07-07 + camp reporting)

• Backfield: Dobbins 1A (re-signed 2yr/$20M, $8M gtd) / RJ Harvey 1B (2025 R2; 58 targets, 7 rush TDs in 2025) / R4.108 rookie Jonah Coleman drafted as the third-down/pass-pro candidate and "premium Dobbins insurance" (Mile High Report, 2026). One RB4 spot remains: McLaughlin (frontrunner, re-signed 1-yr) vs Badie (31 targets in 2025, retained) vs Schrader — SI Broncos (2026-07-06) lists Schrader third with "no specific mention of special teams role or clear pathway." Camp opens 2026-07-28.
• Handcuff 2×2 (rb.md §7): low standalone (zero projected touches) × low contingent (a Dobbins injury flows to Harvey→Coleman→McLaughlin/Badie before him) = roster clog quadrant → AVOID. The three-factor handcuff test: fragile starter ✓ (Dobbins, foot injury 2025, age 27), good offense ✓ (9.5 win total, No. 1 PFF OL, top-5 PROE prior), clean succession ✗✗ — he is one of five behind the starter. Two of three is not enough; the value is a product, and one term is ~0.
• Game script: irrelevant at zero snaps; noted for contract completeness — DEN skews positive-script (win total 9.5, DraftKings via CBS, 2026-07-01), which feeds the backs ahead of him.
• O-line/scheme: elite (PFF No. 1 OL 2025; RBWR 4th) — raises the value of the *role*, which he does not have.

Tripwires (re-run if any fire)

• Schrader makes the initial 53-man roster out of camp (beats both McLaughlin and Badie) — cuts around 2026-09-01.
• Multi-week injury to two of Dobbins/Harvey/Coleman before or during the season.
• August preseason usage: 10+ touches with the second unit or core special-teams reps with the first ST unit.
• Waived and claimed/signed by a team with a genuinely thin RB room (top-2 backs injured or unproven).
• Beat reports of a defined package role for him under new play-caller Davis Webb (would contradict the current "no pathway" read).