Don't Look at My Team

Bo Nix — QB, DEN — 2026

Verdict

TARGET (medium confidence) at ADP 115.6 / QB16 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). Nix has finished QB9 (322.0 pts, 2024) and QB8 (309.8 pts, 2025) in this scoring across 34-of-34 starts, his 2025 finish was fully usage-supported (combined pass+rush xTD ≈ actual TDs), and the 2026 environment improved: Jaylen Waddle arrives against ~4 vacated targets, all five OL starters return from the No. 1 pass-protecting line in football, and the Payton system's top-3 play volume and +1.6% PROE are retained under new caller Davis Webb. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the ankle surgery and the first-time play-caller as production risk, while the top of the evidence hierarchy — usage and situation — says continuity: ~674 dropbacks of secure, high-volume work with zero benching risk and upgraded weapons, available eight ADP spots below Caleb Williams and behind Jaxson Dart. At pick 115.6 the median outcome is a weekly starter and the downside is a free cut. The verdict is TARGET rather than MUST-HAVE because his rushing profile is genuinely fragile (scramble-heavy, rushing xTD 1.59 vs 5 actual rush TDs in 2025) and CPOE has been negative two straight years — this is a volume/environment bet, not a Konami one.

Bull case

Back-to-back top-9 totals at a QB16 price, and the finishes were earned by usage: derived 2025 xFP ≈ 300 (xTD-adjusted) vs 309.8 actual — passing xTD (28.45) ran *above* his 25 actual pass TDs, so aggregate TD regression is roughly neutral-to-positive on the passing side. Volume (39.6 db/gm), job, and durability (34/34) are the stickiest signals in the system and all point up.
The environment got better while the price got cheaper: Waddle added to zero vacated targets, the No. 1 pass-pro OL returns 5/5, elite sack avoidance (11.2% pressure-to-sack) keeps the attempt volume clean, and EPA/dropback improved +0.086 → +0.125 in year 2. A year-3 QB with rising efficiency and his best-ever receiver corps is the market's classic under-price.
Asymmetric price: at pick 115.6 he costs a round-10 pick for a median ~QB9-in-totals outcome; QB15–17 by ADP (Dart, Baker) offer no comparable two-year floor. If the ankle or Webb install goes sideways, replacement is free on waivers in a 1QB league — the pick risks almost nothing.

Bear case

The Konami edge mostly isn't there, and what's left is fragile and rehabbing: rushing value is scramble-led (36 scrambles vs 30 designed), scramble rate fell 7.8% → 5.3%, rush yds/gm 25.3 → 20.9, inside-5 carries totaled 1 in 2025, and rushing xTD was 1.59 against 5 actual rush TDs — expect ~2-3, not 5, and a surgically repaired ankle threatens the scramble yardage that remains. In 4pt scoring that's the difference between QB8 and QB12.
Accuracy below expectation two straight years: NGS CPOE −2.57 and −2.07 (concern band), INT-worthy rate above league average both years with a fortunate INT ledger (1.78% actual vs 2.18% league) — the efficiency case rests on environment, and the environment just handed play-calling to a 31-year-old who has never called a play at any level.
Positive script + install drag cap the volume thesis: 9.5 win total, a No. 1 defense returning nearly intact, and a first-year caller trimming pace — if DEN leads and Webb slows down, the 604-attempt base erodes toward 560, and Nix's PPG (18.2, ~1–1.5 above streaming replacement) doesn't survive a volume haircut in 1QB.

Projection & comps

	Floor (20th)	Median	Ceiling (80th)
Points (PPR assumed, 4pt pass TD)	225	288	330

Build (bottom-up, per scoring-framework §2, from team profile volume inputs of ~35.5 pass att/gm and ~64.5 plays/gm):

Passing (median): ~604 attempts (35.5 × 17) × 6.6 YPA (2024–25 range 6.66/6.42, small Waddle-separation bump net of first-year-caller drag) ≈ 3,985 yds (159 pts). Pass TDs anchored to passing xTD: 4.35% blended xTD rate (2025: 28.45 xTD on 617 att = 4.6%; 2024: 23.4 on 568 = 4.1%) → 26 pass TDs (104 pts) — above his 25 actual in 2025, because his passing TDs ran *under* expectation. INTs from INT-worthy rate, not last year's count: 3.57% IW × ~62% league conversion ≈ 2.2% → 13 INTs (−13).
Rushing (median, projected separately): ~62 real carries (30 designed + 36 scrambles in 2025, trimmed slightly for post-surgery year-1 scramble caution; age 26 = no age haircut) × ~5.4 YPC net of kneel losses ≈ 330 yds (33 pts). Rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (1.59 in 2025, 2.98 in 2024), not the 5 actuals: 2.5 (15 pts). Fumbles: −2.
Median sums to ~296 at 17 games; stated median 288 reflects ~0.5 expected games lost (post-surgery). Floor 225 = ankle recurrence / ~14 games at reduced mobility and efficiency under the new caller. Ceiling 330 = 17 games, Waddle unlocks YPA ~7.0, ~29 pass TDs, rushing holds at 2024 levels — roughly a QB4–5 season in either of the last two years.

Games risk: medium — 34/34 career starts, not a heavy-carry runner (3.9 real carries/gm — no §3 heavy-runner nudge), but coming off a Jan 2026 right-ankle fracture with surgery plus an April 2026 bone-spur cleanup; cleared trajectory is "full go" for camp with no PUP candidacy (ESPN, denverbroncos.com, June–July 2026).

Comp seasons (this scoring): Bo Nix 2024 (322.0), Dak Prescott 2025 (319.8), Caleb Williams 2025 (315.0), Jared Goff 2025 (311.1), Baker Mayfield 2025 (284.9 — the down-mix outcome). Source: data/stats/2024–2025 passing/rushing.csv, league scoring applied, computed 2026-07-07.

External projections: none on file (data/projections/ absent) — no cross-check available, noted per SKILL §4.

Usage profile (opportunity core, 2025 REG unless noted)

Metric	Value	Band	Read
Rush att/gm (excl. kneels)	3.9 (66/17); 2024: 4.6	fringe good	Declining year-over-year (92→83 gross carries)
Designed rush rate	2.78% of team plays (30/1,079); 2024: 2.70%	below good (4–8%)	Small, stable sneak/keeper package — not a scheme commitment
Scramble rate	5.3% (36/674 dropbacks); 2024: 7.8%	good	Fell sharply year 2; the fragile half of his rushing value
Rush yds/gm	20.9 (356/17); 2024: 25.3	good (barely)	Worth 2.5× pass yards in 4pt — but trending down
RZ rush share	18.9% (14/74 team RZ carries); 2024: 21.6%	elite	Real RZ involvement — but mostly 10–20 yd line, not goal line
Inside-5 carries	1 (2025); 6 (2024)	concern	No sneak-TD floor; 2025 rush TDs came from distance
Rushing xTD	1.59 (actual 5); 2024: 2.98 (actual 4)	concern	Two straight years over xTD — regression flag, project ~2.5
Dropbacks/gm	39.6 (674/17)	elite	The actual edge: top-shelf volume
Pass att/gm	36.3 (617/17 pbp basis)	elite	604+ attempt base projected for 2026
Team PROE	+1.6% (4th, 2025)	good/near-elite	Payton-system prior; low confidence under Webb (see §4)
xFP	~300 season / 17.7 PPG (derived: 2025 usage with xTD + IW-implied INTs swapped for actuals)	low-end QB1	2025's QB8 finish was usage-supported, not TD luck in aggregate. Provider xFP UNVERIFIED (no export on file)

Efficiency (QB-owned vs environment-owned):

Metric	2025	2024	Band	Read
EPA/dropback (incl. scrambles)	+0.125 (674 db)	+0.086 (641 db)	good, improving	Real year-over-year growth; QB-owned trajectory
CPOE	NGS −2.07 / pbp −1.20	NGS −2.57 / pbp +0.56	concern (NGS basis)	Below expectation both years on NGS; sticky and QB-owned — the talent question
Pressure-to-sack	11.2% (22 sacks / 196 pressured)	12.4% (24/194)	elite	Elite, sticky, QB-owned; drives the sack-free volume
INT-worthy rate (FTN IW/att — TWP proxy)	3.57% (22/617); league 3.35%	3.87% (22/568); league 3.53%	slightly worse than avg	Actual INT rate 1.78% vs league 2.18% — mild INT good fortune; project 13, not 11
Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds)	11.7%	13.0%	good	Ceiling source intact
aDOT (NGS intended air yds)	7.51	7.39	good/elite edge	Healthy depth, not a checkdown environment
Play-action rate	~25.5% (172 PA plays / 674 db, FTN REG)	~27.7% (184/~665)	good	Play-caller-owned; system retained

Archetype (qb.md §10): pocket volume passer with a scramble layer — *not* dual-threat elite (rush yds/gm 20.9 < 35; goal-line role absent). Pattern (§11): partial year-2-leap analog carried into year 3 — improving EPA/dropback, retained system, upgraded pass-catchers — but the strict screen wants CPOE ≥ 0, which he fails.

Context (from data/team-profiles/DEN.md, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Davis Webb, first-time caller at any level — Payton ceded play-calling (announced 2026-02-24, ESPN) but oversees the same system with staff continuity (Strief run game, Morton pass game). Webb has been Nix's position coach his entire career. Every tendency is a low-confidence Payton-system prior: +1.6% PROE (4th), 60% neutral pass rate (6th), 66.0 plays/gm (3rd, 2025). Profile stability: low (structural first-time-caller rating), heavily mitigated by continuity. CBS Sports (June 2026) frames Webb's Air Raid roots as a pass-volume tailwind.
Injury status: fractured right ankle Jan 2026 (Divisional Round), surgery Jan + bone-spur cleanup April 2026; limited in minicamp by design, "could be full go right now" per Nix, no PUP candidacy per Payton (ESPN, NFL.com, denverbroncos.com, June–July 2026). Sleeper lists him Questionable as of 2026-07-07 — a rehab-status artifact, not a camp hold-out signal. Watch camp reps anyway.
O-line: 5/5 starters return; PFF No. 1 OL of 2025, league-low 6 OL-charged sacks, PBWR 8th; 28–29% pressure rate allowed (charting basis). Best pass-protection environment in football; LG (Powers) is the one contested spot.
Weapons: Waddle (1st+3rd+4th trade capital, $28.25M APY) joins Sutton (124 tgt), Franklin (104), Engram, Harvey against ~4 vacated targets — compression for the pass-catchers, pure upgrade for the QB. Continuity check passes easily: far under the 40%-departure threshold, so 2025 efficiency carryover is trustworthy, with upside from Waddle's separation.
Script/volume: Vegas win total 9.5 (DraftKings via CBS, 2026-07-01) with the NFL's No. 1 defense returning nearly intact — positive script lean; leading teams run, which caps the 66-plays/gm and PROE inputs at the margin (profile projects ~64.5 plays/gm, ~35.5 pass att/gm). This is the volume-side bear lever.
Job security: none in question — 2024 No. 12 pick on rookie deal through 2027 + option; QB2 is a Stidham/Ehlinger battle.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Ankle setback — any new procedure, PUP placement, or limited reps past the first week of training camp (late July 2026).
ADP rises inside ~pick 90 / QB10–11 — the thesis is the price; at starter-premium cost this profile is the 1QB dead zone (HOLD/FADE).
Play-caller churn or run-package removal — Payton retaking calls mid-camp, or beat reports that the QB keeper/sneak package is out of the install while Nix rehabs.
Receiver-corps shock — Waddle or Sutton lost for extended time (re-derive YPA and pass xTD downward).
Camp reports of visibly reduced mobility — scramble yardage is ~half his rushing value; a pocket-bound Nix is a pure volume passer with a negative CPOE.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ and data/stats/2024/ — passing.csv, rushing.csv, ngs_passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07). REG-only for derived tables.
nflverse play-by-play 2024–2025 (loaded via nflreadpy 2026-07-07, REG filtered): dropbacks, EPA/dropback, CPOE (pbp basis), designed-vs-scramble split, RZ/inside-5/inside-10 carries, deep-ball rate, half-season designed-run splits, and xTD (league TD-rate-by-yardline buckets, 2024–25 pooled, applied to Nix's attempt distribution).
Derived pressure-to-sack and INT-worthy rates: participation.csv was_pressure + ftn_charting.csv is_interception_worthy joined on game/play id, DEN offense REG (computed 2026-07-07). IW rate is a TWP proxy (excludes fumble-worthy plays); PFF TWP UNVERIFIED (no export on file).
data/team-profiles/DEN.md (built 2026-07-07): play-caller, PROE, pace, OL ranks, Waddle trade, vacated-target math, Vegas win total 9.5 (DraftKings via CBS Sports, 2026-07-01), Nix injury timeline.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 115.6, QB16 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 26 (DOB 2000-02-25), years_exp 2, injury_status Questionable, depth chart QB1 (as of 2026-07-07).
Web (July 2026): ESPN — Nix on track for camp, April surgery was bone spurs; NFL.com — "I could be full go right now"; denverbroncos.com — Payton "full speed by training camp," no PUP; CBS Sports — Webb Air Raid roots / Waddle-Nix outlook; NBC Sports/Yahoo — 2026 Broncos fantasy preview (as-of dates June–July 2026).
UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler); PFF TWP rate; PFR-definition pressure rate. League scoring assumed (PPR, 4pt pass TD, 1QB) pending league-settings.md confirmation.