Don't Look at My Team

Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, DEN) — 2026 evaluation

Scoring note: the orchestrating brief assumed full PPR with unconfirmed placeholders, but methodology/league-settings.md now carries confirmed values (2026-07-08): half-PPR (0.5/rec), 6pt pass TD, no premiums. This eval is scored in the confirmed half-PPR settings (matching the rescored 2026 evals, e.g. Alec Pierce). Full-PPR equivalents: floor ~52 / median ~87 / ceiling ~140.

Verdict

HOLD (medium confidence) at a free price — mock-undrafted (absent FFC top-216, ffc-ppr 2026-07-07; Sleeper search_rank 192, 2026-07-08). The market prices Mims as a waiver-tier name, and after working the profile, the market is right: profile and price agree, so no "market is wrong" thesis exists. He is the No. 6 target claim on his own team (behind Sutton, Waddle, Franklin, Harvey, Engram, and contested by Pat Bryant), with a 0.195 TPRR, a 0.207 WOPR, and 2 end-zone targets in 2025 — that is not a rosterable median in a 12-team, 2-WR half-PPR league (~4.4 PPG). What keeps this from AVOID is a genuinely live contingent path: when routes opened in the 2025 playoffs he ran 72.5% of pass plays and produced 12-155-1 on 14 targets in two games against Buffalo and New England, in an offense that went 14-3. He is the correct first waiver add the week Waddle, Franklin, or Sutton misses time — and correctly costless until then. Draft only as a final-pick dart in leagues deeper than this one.

Bull case

The contingent path is proven, not hypothetical: with Franklin down in the 2025 playoffs, Mims immediately ran 72.5% of pass plays with a 0.241 TPRR and went 12-155-1 on 14 targets against the Bills and Patriots (participation.csv/weekly.csv). One injury to Waddle, Franklin, or Sutton puts him on the field in a 14-win offense — and he costs nothing today.
Real per-touch juice with committed schemed usage: 4.38 speed, +2.78 YAC over expected in 2024, 9.7 Y/Tgt in 2024, 20 designed behind-LOS targets + 12 carries in 2025, and two-time AP All-Pro returner with a 2025 punt-return TD — a weekly ST-TD lottery ticket stapled to gadget touches.
Contract-year optionality the price ignores: a trade (chatter is live) to a WR-needy team instantly re-rates the profile from WR6-on-a-loaded-depth-chart to possible starter routes; at a free acquisition cost the option is pure upside.

Bear case

Compression, not vacancy: Denver added ~100 targets of Waddle demand against ~4 vacated, and the arrival projects to Mims' own alignment (slot). He's 6th in the pecking order, openly rotating with Bryant, and the beat says Franklin is the initial WR3 anyway (SI Broncos, June 2026).
Three years of usage evidence says capped: RP has never cracked 41% of pass plays in a regular season under the staff that drafted him, and when routes rose in 2025 his TPRR fell 0.275 → 0.195. WOPR 0.207 two years running, 3.4% RZ target share, 2 end-zone targets — there is no volume or TD path at his current role, and half-PPR scoring shaves his catch value further.
The role he does have is the fragile kind: 39% of targets behind the LOS and 6% intermediate is a screens-and-gos tree owned by a play-caller who just left the booth (Payton → Webb); methodology auto-downgrades manufactured-touch profiles on OC change, and 2024's 6-TD efficiency spike (on 52 targets) already showed up as regression fodder in 2025.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (Half-PPR, 6pt pass TD, 17-week season). Team volume from data/team-profiles/DEN.md (2026-07-07): ~35.5 pass att/gm, ~630 throw-plays.

Scenario	Games	RP (pass plays)	Routes	TPRR	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Rush	Off TD	ST TD	Half-PPR
Floor (p20) — Bryant wins the rotation, pure returner/decoy	16	30%	~178	0.17	30	22	~195	8-45	1	0	~42
Median (p50) — 2025 role redux, Waddle squeeze offsets growth	16	36%	~213	0.20	43	31	~310	12-72	2.5	~0.4	~71
Ceiling (p80) — injury ahead of him opens a 10+ game window / wins WR3	17	~55%	~346	0.22	76	55	~625	15-90	5	~0.7	~115

Inputs: RP anchored to his actual pass-play participation (2025 REG 40.4%, 2024 REG 31.4%, computed from participation.csv), trimmed at the median for the Waddle arrival and Bryant rotation; TPRR anchored to 2025's 0.195 (51 tgt / 261 pass-snaps, computed) rather than 2024's 0.275 (better talent now around him); Y/Tgt ~7.3 regressed between 2025's 6.3 and 2024's 9.7; TDs anchored to xTD — 3 RZ targets and 2 end-zone targets in 2025 (computed from nflverse pbp, pulled 2026-07-08) support ~2–3 offensive TDs, not 2024's 7; ~0.4 expected ST TD (1 PR TD in 2025, first of career). Provider xFP: UNVERIFIED (no export) — usage-implied ~5 half-PPR PPG on 2025 usage vs 5.1 actual = efficiency/luck roughly neutral.

Games-played risk: medium — missed weeks 9–10 2025 with a concussion (injuries.csv); otherwise durable (15–17 games each season); role is rotation-proof to minor injury.

Comp seasons (role comps — gadget WR4/returner on a good offense):

Marvin Mims 2024 DEN — 52 tgt, 39-503-6 + 13 car (129.5 full PPR ≈ 110 half; verified data/stats/2024/receiving.csv) → ceiling-without-role-change, TD-spike-driven
Marvin Mims 2025 DEN — 51 tgt, 37-322-1 + 12-78-1 + PR TD, 76.5 half-PPR/15 gm (verified) → median anchor
Braxton Berrios 2021 NYJ — ~46-431-2 + return TDs (approx., evaluator prior) → median-ceiling band
Kalif Raymond 2023 DET — ~35-489-1 + returner duty (approx., evaluator prior) → median
Rondale Moore 2022 ARI — ~41-414-1 + designed rushes (approx., evaluator prior) → floor-median

Usage profile (2025 primary, 2024 in parens; REG unless noted)

Metric	Value	Band	Read
Target share	8.7% (9.5%) — playoff 2-gm: 19.0% / 22.2% wk-by-wk	Concern	Never a real claim; playoff bump was Franklin's fade (18% snap wk20, hamstring wk21), i.e., injury-driven, not role-driven — per methodology §3 that's not a bankable split
TPRR (pass-snap proxy)	0.195 (0.275) · playoffs 0.241	Concern	The 2024 "high TPRR + low RP = expansion candidate" flag fired — and 2025 answered it: routes grew, earning rate fell. That's the "capped" cell of the 2×2 now
Route participation (pass-play %)	40.4% (31.4%) · playoffs 72.5%	Concern (<70%)	<70% caps all outcomes per methodology §2. Playoff spike is the contingent-value proof-of-concept
Air-yards share	10.9% (9.4%)	Concern	No downfield claim behind Sutton/Franklin — and Waddle now arrives
WOPR	0.207 (0.208)	Concern (<0.40)	Two identical years of WR5-level combined opportunity
RZ target share	3/89 = 3.4% (2025, computed from pbp)	Concern	Franklin 21, Sutton 20, Engram/Harvey 11 ahead of him
End-zone targets	2 (Sutton 14, Franklin 11; computed from pbp)	Concern	2024's 6 rec TDs (on 52 targets) were the fluke, not 2025's 1
xFP	UNVERIFIED (provider)	—	Usage-implied ~5.0 half-PPR PPG vs 5.1 actual — no hidden luck signal either way

Target quality / route tree (computed from nflverse pbp 2025, pulled 2026-07-08):

aDOT: 9.0 NGS intended air yards (ngs_receiving.csv); PFF lists 9.6 (pff.com, fetched 2026-07-08). Mid band on paper, but it's an average of extremes —
Depth mix: 39% behind LOS (20) / 29% short (15) / 6% intermediate (3) / 25% deep (13). A barbell of screens and go-balls with almost nothing in the 10–19-yd sweet spot — the classic manufactured-touch + vertical gadget tree, fragile on any situation change per methodology §3.
Field zone: 5/51 = 9.8% middle by pass-location hash (crude proxy; Fantasy Points MOF export UNVERIFIED) — extreme boundary tilt, floor-discount profile.
Third-down targets: 16 (31% of his targets) — the one trust-chain positive in the tree.
Designed touches: 20 behind-LOS targets + 12 carries (78 yds, TD) — play-caller-committed usage. Methodology §3/§8 flags this as void under a new play-caller; the DEN profile notes Payton's oversight of first-time caller Davis Webb mutes but does not remove that risk.

Alignment: Sleeper depth chart lists him at SWR (slot), order 5 (players_2026-07-07.json). 2025 slot%/wide% split UNVERIFIED (no alignment export). Beat consensus after June minicamp: Franklin the initial WR3 in 11 personnel with Mims and Bryant rotating behind the Sutton/Waddle/Franklin trio (SI Broncos depth-chart projection, June 2026). Waddle projects inside most in 3-WR sets (team profile, moderate confidence) — i.e., the big-money arrival lands closest to Mims' alignment. Red flag per methodology §10: new high-capital competition at his alignment. Coverage splits: per-coverage TPRR/YPRR UNVERIFIED (no charting export). Separation context: NGS avg separation 4.5 (2025) on a heavily schemed/screen tree — not comparable to boundary separators. Efficiency: YPRR (pass-snap proxy) 1.23 in 2025 — Concern band — vs 2.66 in 2024; catch% 72.5 (NGS); YACOE +0.47 (2025) after +2.78 (2024) — positive two straight years, but 2024's number was screen-inflated; drop rate UNVERIFIED; PFF receiving grade 62.6, 68th of 81 qualifiers (pff.com, fetched 2026-07-08). Per-target talent is real (career 9+ Y/Tgt outside 2025); earning rate is the problem.

Archetype: manufactured-touch/YAC gadget + deep threat + elite returner — methodology §8's "auto-downgrade on OC departure" archetype, and the OC seat did change (Webb). Pedigree/age: age 24 (DOB 2002-03-19, Sleeper 2026-07-07), NFL year 4 — 2023 R2 pick No. 63, early declare from Oklahoma, led OU in receiving yards three straight seasons with a true-freshman breakout (age ≤19) and a 4.38 forty at the 2023 combine (draft/college/testing = pre-2026 evaluator priors, not re-verified; RAS UNVERIFIED). The pedigree was never the problem — but per prospect-pedigree §1, capital's predictive power is spent by year 4: believe the NFL usage record. The post-hype screen (§5) does not trigger: the role is not "newly open" — it just got Waddle dropped on top of it.

Context (from `data/team-profiles/DEN.md`, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Davis Webb, first-time caller, Payton overseeing (announced 2026-02-24). System continuity presumed (staff retained) but stability rated low; Mims' designed-touch role is the single most play-caller-dependent asset in the WR room.
QB: Bo Nix (year 3), rehabbing a Jan 2026 ankle fracture — Payton says "full go" for camp. Contingency line in the profile: a Stidham start compresses the offense and hits deep/intermediate work hardest — bad for Mims' vertical half.
O-line: Best pass-protecting line in football in 2025 (PFF No. 1, 6 OL-charged sacks), 5/5 starters back — supports the deep game; no quick-game funnel to inflate screen roles.
Target competition — the story is compression, not vacancy: ~4 targets vacated; ~100 of Waddle demand arrived (1st+3rd+4th trade capital, $28.25M APY, March 2026). Hierarchy: Sutton → Waddle → Franklin → Harvey → Engram → Mims, contested with Pat Bryant (2025 R3 rookie who out-snapped him weeks 16 and 18). Franklin (104 tgt) is the compression victim above him; Mims is the one below.
Environment: Win total 9.5 (DK via CBS, 2026-07-01), ~64.5 plays/gm, ~60% neutral pass — a top-shelf offense to be contingently attached to.
His 2026 status: on the 90-man, final year of his rookie deal (~$6M total); said in late June "with this possibly being my last year, I'm just going to enjoy it to the fullest" (NFL.com, June 2026); "irritated" with his offensive role (Heavy, June 2026); Broncos publicly not shopping their WRs but trade speculation is live (denversports.com / Heavy / Yardbarker, June–July 2026); agents peg his open-market value at $11–13M/yr (Yardbarker, July 2026).

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

Multi-week injury (camp or season) to Waddle, Franklin, or Sutton → routes open; re-run immediately — likely flips to TARGET/priority free add on the playoff precedent.
Mims traded before Week 1 → all DEN-context conclusions void; re-run in the new offense.
Camp/preseason reports Mims running clear WR3 in 11 personnel ahead of Franklin and Bryant → re-run (hierarchy premise broken).
Preseason shows zero designed-touch packages for him under Webb (no jets/screens/carries by preseason Wk 3) → the floor scenario becomes the median; downgrade watch-list priority.
ADP enters draftable range (appears in FFC top ~200 or Sleeper search_rank <150) → re-judge at the actual price; at any real cost this profile grades FADE.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ and data/stats/2024/: receiving.csv, rushing.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, weekly.csv, snap_counts.csv, injuries.csv, participation.csv — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. RP/TPRR/YPRR computed on a pass-play-snap denominator (participation play-level, dropback proxy = time_to_throw/route/ngs_air_yards populated) — slightly understates true route-based rates; labeled proxy throughout.
nflverse pbp 2025 (loaded via nflreadpy, 2026-07-08, fallback-chain step 2): DEN RZ target distribution (89 team; Mims 3), end-zone targets (36 team; Mims 2, Sutton 14, Franklin 11), Mims depth-of-target mix (20/15/3/13), pass-location mix (5/51 middle), third-down targets (16), carries (12).
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Mims absent from FFC top-216 mocks (ffc-ppr, 2026-07-07); row carried via sleeper-searchrank (2026-07-08). DEN teammates: Waddle 42.6, Sutton 70.2, Harvey 88.4, Dobbins 95.9, Nix 115.6.
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 24 (DOB 2002-03-19), 5'11"/182, Oklahoma, years_exp 3, depth SWR/5, search_rank 192.
data/team-profiles/DEN.md (built 2026-07-07) — Webb play-calling handoff, Nix ankle, OL, Waddle trade terms, vacated-target math (~4), hierarchy, win total 9.5, Mims trade-chatter watch item.
methodology/league-settings.md — half-PPR / 6pt pass TD / no premiums, confirmed 2026-07-08 (supersedes the full-PPR assumption in the evaluation brief).
Web (fetched 2026-07-08): NFL.com (Mims "possibly being my last year," June 2026); Heavy.com ("irritated" with offensive role; extension/trade framing, June 2026); denversports.com (room-beyond-2026 question, June 2026); Yardbarker (extension interest; agent price tags $11–13M/yr, July 2026); SI Broncos (post-minicamp depth chart: Franklin initial WR3, Mims/Bryant rotation, June 2026); pff.com player page (2025 PFF grade 63.5 / receiving 62.6, 68th of 81; aDOT 9.6); denverbroncos.com / Denver Gazette (first career PR TD vs LV, Dec 2025); SI Broncos (back-to-back AP All-Pro returner).
UNVERIFIED / gaps: provider xFP; 2025 slot/wide alignment %; drop rate; per-coverage (man/zone) TPRR/YPRR; Fantasy Points MOF share (hash-location proxy used); RAS; college dominator/breakout-age exact figures (draft capital R2/63, three-year OU receiving lead, 4.38 forty = pre-2026 evaluator priors); Berrios/Raymond/Moore comp lines approximate (pre-cache seasons).