Don't Look at My Team

Patrick Mahomes — QB, KC — 2026

Verdict

FADE (medium confidence) at ADP 77.1 / QB6 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). The market's case is fair: pre-injury Mahomes was 2nd in per-game scoring among QBs in this scoring (21.2 PPG over 14 games; only Allen was better), his best season since 2022, and he returns to a full-season Rice, a healthy Worthy, Kelce, and the No. 2 pass-blocking line, with a nine-month ACL timeline that lands almost exactly on Week 1. But that 21.2 PPG decomposes into three components that all point down in 2026: a career-high scramble spike (52 scrambles, 8.8% scramble rate — 95% of his real carries) now filtered through an ACL+LCL reconstruction of the plant knee at his age-31 season; 5 rush TDs against ~1.7 rushing xTD with no sneak/keeper package behind it; and 42.1 dropbacks/gm of losing-script volume on a 6-11 team the market now bets to 10.5 wins. Why the market is wrong: it is pricing the 14-game per-game pace as repeatable and attaching zero injury discount — Week 1 "with no restrictions" is a stated goal, not a medical fact (7-on-7 only at June minicamp, not yet running and cutting, Questionable on Sleeper as of 7/7) — while Daniels (86.6), Goff (90.1), Hurts (93.1), and Stafford (100.9) sit a round or more cheaper. The projected median (~18.1 PPG) is a QB8–12 outcome at a QB6 price; per the rubric this is FADE (fine player, wrong price), not AVOID — take him a round-plus past ADP, roughly pick 95+.

Bull case

The passing foundation is genuinely intact and under-realized: passing xTD 27.1 vs 22 actual in 2025 (5.4% xTD rate — elite RZ pass access under Reid), EPA/dropback *improved* to +0.168 amid a depleted receiver room, and 2026 hands him his best supporting cast since 2022 (full Rice + healthy Worthy + No. 2 PBWR line). If the knee is a non-story, ~30 pass TDs is live and the ceiling (350) is a top-4 season.
Volume pedigree under the stickiest situation in football: 40.9 and 42.1 dropbacks/gm the last two years for the only play-caller he's ever had (+4.0 PROE even in a lost season). Even the projected positive-script trim leaves a top-10 attempt base — his floor-per-start is high by pass volume alone.
QB-owned traits show no cliff: pressure-to-sack still good (18.1%), INT-worthy rate league-average with a neutral ledger, deep-ball rate rebounded to 13.1% — the age-31 "sudden pocket-QB cliff" pattern (§11) is not visible in the 2025 data.

Bear case

The 2025 edge was the most fragile shape rushing value comes in, and it just met its worst-case injury: 95% scramble-based (52 of 55 real carries; 0.32% designed rate; zero sneaks), a career-high spike at age 30 — and QBs coming off ACL tears demonstrably scramble less in year 1. The age-31 haircut (§3) and post-ACL caution stack on the same component; his 2023–24 baseline (~20 rush yds/gm, ~2 rush TDs) is the honest projection, which deletes ~2 PPG from the 2025 pace before anything else goes wrong.
The TD and volume math both revert: 5 rush TDs vs 1.68 xTD (+3.3 ≈ 20 pts) with only 2 inside-5 carries behind it, and 42.1 dropbacks/gm earned by a 6-11 season the market now prices at 10.5 wins with a $28.7M-guaranteed lead back and a run-game OC added. Trailing-script volume was the 2025 subsidy; positive scripts are the 2026 tax.
You pay QB6 for an unresolved medical file: no team drills as of mid-June, 11-on-11 clearance projected for mid-camp, Questionable tag, and a nine-month timeline that lands *on* Week 1 with zero buffer — while the 20th-percentile outcome (missed early games, hesitant plant leg, Fields relief) costs you a 7th-round pick in a league where Daniels, Goff, Hurts, and Stafford go rounds 8–9 and streaming replacement (~16–17 PPG) is free.

Projection & comps

	Floor (20th)	Median	Ceiling (80th)
Points (PPR assumed, 4pt pass TD)	205	290	350

Build (bottom-up per scoring-framework §2, volume inputs from data/team-profiles/KC.md: ~63.5 plays/gm, ~34 team pass att/gm, ~38 team dropbacks/gm — trimmed from 2025's script-inflated 43):

Passing (median, 16 games): ~545 attempts (34 × 16) × 7.3 YPA (2025: 7.15 with a broken receiver room; full-season Rice + healthy Worthy bump, netted against early-season knee rust) ≈ 3,980 yds (159 pts). Pass TDs anchored to passing xTD, not actuals: his xTD rate ran 5.39% (27.08 xTD / 502 att, 2025) and 5.02% (2024) — Reid's inside-10 pass tilt is TD-rich — vs 4.38% actual in 2025; project 4.8% → 26 pass TDs (104 pts). INTs from INT-worthy rate (3.2%, ≈ league average), not last year's count: ~2.1% → 11 INTs (−11).
Rushing (median, projected separately — it is the floor question): his rushing is ~95% scrambles (52 of 55 real carries in 2025; 3 designed runs, 0 charted QB sneaks in two years). Apply the §3 age-31 haircut (−20%) plus year-1 post-ACL scramble caution to the 2025 career-high 30.6 real yds/gm → ~19.5 yds/gm ≈ 310 yds (31 pts) — in line with his 2023–24 baseline (~20 yds/gm). Rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (1.68 in 2025, 0.91 in 2024), not the 5 actuals: 2.5 (15 pts). Fumbles: −4.
Median sums to ~294 at 16 games; stated median 290 shaves ~4 pts for restricted early-season movement inside the "plays 16" scenario. Floor 205 = 13 games (early-season miss or setback) at reduced scramble volume and efficiency (~15.8 PPG). Ceiling 350 = 17 games, knee fully trusted by October, scramble rate holds near 7%, full receiving corps lifts YPA to ~7.5 and pass TDs to ~30 (~20.6 PPG — top-4 upside, real because the xTD base is elite).

Games risk: high — ACL+LCL reconstruction 2025-12-15, nine-month standard timeline lands at Week 1 with no buffer; June minicamp was 7-on-7 only, "not running and cutting yet" (ESPN/NFL.com, June 2026); trending toward 11-on-11 clearance during camp, not at its start (clutchpoints/lastwordonsports, July 2026). Not a §3 heavy-runner nudge (3.9 real carries/gm) — this is pure medical risk. If he misses time, backup is Justin Fields (tier B), unusable as a same-roster pivot in 1QB.

Comp seasons (this scoring, computed from data/stats 2026-07-07): Patrick Mahomes 2024 (294.0, 16 gm — the legs-muted median look), Justin Herbert 2025 (299.9, 16 gm — same shape: ~3,700/26 + ~500 rush), Jared Goff 2025 (305.1, 17 gm — the pocket-only mix), Dak Prescott 2025 (323.8, 17 gm — the ceiling-side volume outcome), Baker Mayfield 2025 (282.9, 17 gm — the down-mix). His own 2025 pace (21.2 PPG → ~360/17) is the ~90th-percentile outcome, not the median.

External projections: none on file (data/projections/ absent) — no cross-check available, noted per SKILL §4.

Usage profile (opportunity core — 2025 REG, 14 gm, with 2024 alongside)

Metric	2025	2024	Band	Read
Rush att/gm (excl. kneels)	3.9 (55/14)	2.4 (38/16)	good (fringe)	Career high — set immediately before the ACL tear
Designed rush rate	0.32% (3 designed / KC plays)	0.09% (1)	concern (<2%)	Reid runs no QB package; 0 charted QB sneaks in two seasons — nothing scheme-protected
Scramble rate	8.8% (52/589 db)	5.7% (37/654)	elite	3.7 scrambles/gm, 2nd only to Daniels (Fantasy Points, 2026) — this is the rushing profile, and it's the fragile kind (§2)
Rush yds/gm (excl. kneels)	30.6 (429 yds)	21.1 (337)	good	2025 was the outlier; 2023–24 baseline ~20–24
RZ rush share	18.4% (14/76 team RZ carries)	7.3% (6/82)	elite (2025 only)	One-year, scramble-based spike — not a designed role
Inside-5 carries	2 (1 TD)	1 (1 TD)	concern (≤2)	No goal-line role; 5 rush TDs came mostly from distance
Rushing xTD	1.68 (actual 5)	0.91 (actual 2)	concern	+3.3 TDs over expectation ≈ 20 pts of 2025 scoring that regresses
Dropbacks/gm	42.1 (589/14)	40.9	elite	Script-inflated (6-11 team); 2026 team projection ~38
Pass att/gm	35.9	36.3	elite	The real, sticky edge — Reid's volume
Team PROE	+4.0% (nfelo, 2025)	UNVERIFIED	elite	Pass-tilt caller even in a lost year; persists
xFP	~298 xTD/IW-adjusted over 14 gm (~21.3 PPG; derived — provider xFP UNVERIFIED)	—	top-6 (2025 usage)	2025 PPG was usage-supported in aggregate (rush-TD excess and pass-TD shortfall nearly cancel) — the 2026 question is usage repeating, not 2025 luck

Efficiency (QB-owned vs environment-owned):

Metric	2025	2024	Band	Read
EPA/dropback (incl. scrambles)	+0.168 (589 db)	+0.155 (654)	good/near-elite	No talent cliff — but 2025 split 0.225 (first 7 gm) → 0.036 (last 7)
CPOE	pbp +0.34 / NGS −2.90	pbp +2.56 / NGS −1.15	mixed	Declining on both bases; NGS in the concern band — accuracy is no longer a carried edge
Pressure-to-sack	18.1% (34/188 charted pressures)	11.5% (36/313)	good (was elite)	QB-owned and sticky, but the wrong direction; watch post-ACL pocket movement
INT-worthy rate (FTN IW/pass-ish — TWP proxy)	3.2% (19/593); league 3.04%	3.1% (23/734); league 3.33%	average	Actual INT rate 2.19% — neutral ledger, no luck signal either way; project ~11
Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds)	13.1% (66/503)	8.4% (49/581)	elite	Aggression returned in 2025 — the passing-ceiling source is intact
aDOT (NGS intended air yds)	7.83	6.30	good/elite	Out of the 2024 checkdown regime
Play-action rate	~15.2% of dropbacks (90 PA / 593)	~11.2% of plays	concern (<18%)	Play-caller-owned; Reid gives no PA efficiency subsidy

Archetype (qb.md §10): pocket volume passer with an elite scramble layer — *not* dual-threat elite (designed-run rate ~0%, no goal-line role, rush yds/gm <35). Pattern (§11): the rushing-QB aging rule applies with an injury accelerant — "the decline hits the rush component, not the job; re-verdict a rushing-era price." §12 red-flag hits: age-30+ QB priced partly on prior rush totals; second-half designed/scramble fade (6.0 → 3.1 carries/gm across his 2025 halves). Green flags: combined pass xTD above actual; volume intact under an elite-PROE caller.

Context (from data/team-profiles/KC.md, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Andy Reid retains primary play-calling (confirmed Jan 2026); Eric Bieniemy returns as OC without call duties — no new-caller protocol, but his run-game influence plus the Kenneth Walker signing ($28.7M gtd) signal a deliberate re-balance off 2025's 66.9% script-inflated pass rate. West-coast timing scheme, +4.0 PROE, low play-action, mid pace.
Injury status: ACL+LCL torn 2025-12-14 (Wk 15 vs LAC), surgery Dec 2025. Rehab "going great," goal "Week 1 with no restrictions" (NFL.com, June 2026); minicamp = installs/individual/7-on-7, no team drills, not running/cutting (ESPN, June 2026); July beat reporting has him trending toward 11-on-11 clearance *during* camp (clutchpoints/lastwordonsports, 2026-07-01/06). The organization traded for Justin Fields (Mar 2026) as insurance. Sleeper: Questionable, Knee-ACL (2026-07-07).
O-line: PBWR 71%, 2nd (2025); Humphrey/Smith interior is elite — the best possible protection shape for a QB returning from ACL (clean step-up pocket). Residual risk at both edges (Simmons health, Moore first-year RT); run-blocking 25th.
Weapons: Rice full season (9.8 tgt/gm in 8 gm 2025; NFL discipline ruling pending + June knee cleanup), Worthy healthy (labrum surgery Jan 2026, restrictions lifted), Kelce back at 37, Thornton re-signed, Walker in the backfield. Vacated targets (~173: Brown, JuJu, Hunt/Pacheco) consolidate to incumbents — continuity check passes; 2025 efficiency carryover is trustworthy with upside.
Script/volume: Vegas win total 10.5 (DraftKings via CBS, 2026-07-01) — positive script lean. Profile projects ~34 pass att/gm vs the 43 dropbacks/gm environment Mahomes actually enjoyed in 2025. Leading teams run (§7): the volume tailwind that carried the 2025 pace is the single most reliable thing to bet *against* repeating.
Job security: absolute. Franchise contract restructured Feb 2026; Fields is insurance, not competition.

Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)

Full 11-on-11 clearance early in camp with clean movement reports (running/cutting at speed, no brace-related limitation chatter) — the injury discount argument weakens; if ADP holds at ~77, verdict likely moves FADE → HOLD.
Any setback, PUP placement, or Week-1 doubt in August reporting — at this price the verdict hardens toward AVOID.
ADP drifts past ~95 (round 8, behind Hurts/Goff) — the discount this eval asks for is achieved; re-verdict toward HOLD/TARGET.
Rice suspension ≥4 games (NFL personal-conduct ruling pending as of July 2026) — passing environment and pass-xTD base downgrade; widen ranges down.
Camp reports of a designed QB-run or sneak package install (out of character for Reid) or beat confirmation that coaches are explicitly capping his scrambling — either direction re-prices the rushing component.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ and data/stats/2024/ — passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_passing.csv, pbp_summary.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07). REG-only for derived tables. Note: nflverse carries includes kneel-downs (2025: 64 gross vs 55 real; 2024: 58 vs 38).
nflverse play-by-play 2024–2025 (loaded via nflreadpy 2026-07-07, REG filtered): dropbacks (589/654), EPA/dropback incl. scrambles, pbp CPOE, designed-vs-scramble split (3/52 in 2025; 1/37 in 2024), RZ/inside-10/inside-5 carries, team RZ rush share, deep-ball rate, and xTD (league TD-rate-by-yardline buckets applied to his 2024/2025 attempt and carry distributions: rush xTD 1.68/0.91, pass xTD 27.08/29.17).
Derived pressure-to-sack and INT-worthy rates: participation.csv was_pressure + ftn_charting.csv is_interception_worthy joined on game/play id, KC offense in Mahomes-start weeks (computed 2026-07-07). IW is a TWP proxy (excludes fumble-worthy plays); league IW 3.04% (2025) / 3.33% (2024) same-method. PFF TWP UNVERIFIED (no export on file).
Comp-season totals: computed from data/stats weekly.csv in assumed league scoring (4pt pass TD, −1 INT, −2 fum, PPR), 2026-07-07.
data/team-profiles/KC.md (built 2026-07-07): Reid play-calling confirmation, Bieniemy OC, PROE +4.0 (nfelo), OL win-rate ranks (ESPN, Jan 2026), Walker/Fields/departure-arrival ledger, Vegas win total 10.5 (DraftKings via CBS, 2026-07-01), 2026 volume projections (~63.5 plays, ~34 att/gm), Mahomes injury timeline and Fields contingency.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — ADP 77.1, QB6 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07); neighbors: Maye 65.2, Herbert 77.4, Lawrence 80.6, Daniels 86.6, Goff 90.1, Hurts 93.1, Stafford 100.9.
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — age 30 (DOB 1995-09-17; age-31 season), years_exp 9, injury_status Questionable (Knee-ACL, "Surgery"), depth_chart QB1 (as of 2026-07-07).
Web (June–July 2026): NFL.com — rehab "going great," Week-1/no-restrictions goal; ESPN — minicamp 7-on-7 only, not running/cutting, "I want to be ready for Week 1"; clutchpoints / lastwordonsports / ultimatesportstalk (2026-07-01/06) — trending toward 11-on-11 clearance during camp; sportDA — 9-month timeline math; Fantasy Points (2026) — 3.8 scrambles/gm 2nd to Daniels, 9% scramble rate; CBS Sports 2026 outlook — 23.6 PPG (CBS scoring) pre-injury, QB6; SI / fantasylife / Yahoo (Boone) — market bust/fade discussion (market-view context only).
UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler); PFF TWP; PFR-definition pressure rate; KC 2023–2024 PROE/pace tendencies. League scoring assumed (PPR, 4pt pass TD, 1QB) pending league-settings.md confirmation.