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@CARCooper Kupp — WR, SEA — 2026
Verdict
HOLD (medium confidence) at ADP 169.1 / WR71 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07). Kupp is the locked primary slot and No. 2 target claim on the reigning Super Bowl champions — and the 2025 sample says that claim is worth ~4.4 targets a game (15.4% TS, 0.174 TPRR) in a bottom-quartile-volume, run-tilted offense funneling 35.8% of targets to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. His per-game output (7.3 PPR PPG, zero games over 16 points) was not startable in a 12-team league, and at 33 the earning-rate arrow points down, not up. But the price already assumes all of that: WR71 buys a vested roster lock, an 18.8% red-zone target share, the QB's proven second-read trust (26.7% playoff target share, team-high receiving yards in Super Bowl LX), and the single best contingency claim on a JSN injury. Profile and price agree — no "market is wrong" thesis clears the bar in either direction, so the deep-pool screen result is stated plainly: the path to a *role* is live; the path to a *difference-making role* requires an injury above him.
Bull case
- The No. 2 claim on the champs at a WR71 price: locked slot role (83.6% RP), 18.8% RZ target share, elite hands (2.8% drops), +2.07 YAC over expected — the usage skeleton of a PPR floor player, on an offense returning its entire infrastructure.
- Proven next-read when it matters: 26.7% target share and 0.307 TPRR across three playoff games, team-high receiving yards in Super Bowl LX (12 targets). If JSN misses any time, Kupp instantly inherits the league's most concentrated target funnel — the best sub-170 contingency ticket in the pool.
- TD regression is free: 2 TDs on 13 RZ/5 end-zone targets undershot usage-based expectation; 4–5 TDs on identical usage adds ~15 points nobody is paying for.
Bear case
- The earning rate collapsed and there's no excuse in the data: TPRR 0.276 → 0.174 year-over-year, YPRR 1.47, flat-low vs both man (0.165) and zone (0.181), with a 74.6% catchable-target rate — this isn't bad QB play or a coverage quirk; it's a 33-year-old earning like a WR5 in a fixed role.
- Structurally capped: high RP + low TPRR is the methodology's textbook "capped — sell" quadrant, inside a bottom-quartile pass-volume offense whose alpha takes 35.8% of targets. His 2025 weekly reality: 7.3 PPG, best week 16.0 — unstartable in 12-team PPR even while healthy.
- The succession plan is on the roster: Horton (5 end-zone targets in 8 rookie games, camp buzz) is younger, cheaper long-term, and the beat has already framed him as next-man-up; a midseason role erosion turns Kupp's floor projection into his median. Add 18 games missed 2022–24 and a 2025 hamstring/heel week, and the age-33 availability tail is fat.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, PPR (assumed), anchored to the SEA team profile's volume inputs (~61 plays/gm, ~53% pass, ~29 att/gm — data/team-profiles/SEA.md, 2026-07-07):
| Scenario | Games | Routes/gm | TPRR | Targets | Rec | Yards | TD | PPR pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (P20) | 12 (soft-tissue recurrence and/or Horton absorbs slot routes by midseason) | 22 | 0.16 | ~44 | 30 | 355 | 1 | ~75 |
| Median (P50) | 15.5 | 24.5 | 0.175 | ~66 | 44 | 545 | 3 | ~115 |
| Ceiling (P80) | 17 | 25 | 0.21 (playoff trust partially real; defenses bracket JSN) | ~88 | 60 | 730 | 5 | ~165 |
- TD anchor: 2 actual TDs in 2025 undershot his red-zone usage (13 RZ targets, 5 end-zone targets — computed from nflverse pbp, 2026-07-07); xTD from that usage is ~3–4, so the median bakes in mild positive TD regression. Provider xFP: UNVERIFIED (no export in
data/raw/, nodata/projections/). - Games-played risk: medium — played 16/17 in 2025 (missed wk9, heel/hamstring — injuries.csv) with weekly veteran rest days, but 12/17 in each of 2023–24 and age 33 (2024 count verified in data/stats/2024/receiving.csv; 2022–23 from pre-2026 training knowledge, UNVERIFIED).
- Comp seasons (role comps — aging possession/slot WR2 on run-tilted offenses; stat lines from pre-2026 training knowledge, UNVERIFIED): Robert Woods 2022 TEN (~53-527-2 on 91 tgt), Jarvis Landry 2021 CLE (52-570-2 in 12 gm), Golden Tate 2019 NYG (49-676-6 in 11 gm), Adam Thielen 2022 MIN as the ceiling shape (70-716-6). All landed in the WR45–WR65 PPG band — consistent with the range above.
- External projections: none on file (
data/projections/does not exist) — no disagreement to log.
Usage profile
All computed values from data/stats/2025|2024/ (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07) plus raw nflverse pbp joins computed 2026-07-07. "Routes" = on-field for charted dropbacks (participation.csv proxy).
| Metric | 2024 (LAR, 12 gm) | 2025 (SEA, 16 gm REG) | Band (wr.md §2/§6) | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target share | 18.5% | 15.4% (70 tgt) | Concern (<18%) | JSN's 35.8% funnel caps everyone else |
| TPRR | 0.276 | 0.174 (70/403) | Concern (<0.18) | The collapse is the headline — see split below |
| Route participation (games played) | 86.2% | 83.6% (403/482) | Good (80–90%) | Role secure; high-RP + low-TPRR = capped per the §2 2×2 |
| Air-yards share | 18.9% | 14.3% | Concern (<20%) | No downfield claim |
| WOPR | 0.410 | 0.331 | Concern (<0.40) | |
| RZ target share | — | 18.8% (13/69, 2nd on team) | Good (18–25%) | Best part of the profile |
| End-zone targets | — | 5 (T-2nd; JSN 10) | Below top-24 | Modest TD access |
| xFP | — | UNVERIFIED | — | No provider export on file |
| aDOT | 7.8 (NGS) | 8.28 (NGS) | Sweet-spot edge | Underneath/intermediate tree |
| YPRR | 1.96 | 1.47 | Concern (<1.5) | One-season decline — needs a 2nd season to be "real," but age says believe it sooner |
| 1D per route | 0.080 | 0.065 | Concern | |
| Drop rate | — | 2.8% (2/71 FTN) | Elite (<4%) | Hands intact |
| Catchable-target rate | — | 74.6% (FTN) | — | No QB-accuracy excuse for the low earning |
| YAC over expected | +0.24 (NGS) | +2.07 (NGS) | Positive | Still creates after the catch |
Key splits:
- Playoffs (3 gm): 26.7% TS (23/86), 0.307 TPRR (23/75) vs. 14.8% TS weeks 11–18 (35/236). Same role, so per wr.md §2 this is *not* the trump-card "new-role split" — it reads as bracket-JSN game scripts in high-leverage games. It is, however, direct evidence Darnold's trust chain runs through Kupp when the alpha is taken away — the contingency-value case.
- Depth mix (pbp, n=70): 9% behind LOS / 56% short / 29% intermediate / 7% deep — earns at 3 of 4 depths; classic possession-slot tree. Pass-location tri-split: 30% middle (proxy only; true MOF-vs-boundary charting UNVERIFIED).
- Coverage: TPRR 0.165 vs man, 0.181 vs zone (participation × pbp join) — flat-low in both worlds; no coverage-split excuse and no matchup lever.
- Alignment: primary slot — Ourlads SWR (fetched 2026-07-07); Sleeper depth chart SWR (2026-07-07); PFF-tracked slot rate ≥50% every year since 2019 (PFN, pre-2025 article); exact 2025 slot% UNVERIFIED. JSN moved outside (77.8% of routes) in 2025, so the redundancy concern is resolved — Kupp owns the slot.
Pedigree screen (deep-pool mandate, prospect-pedigree.md): R3 2017, No. 69 overall, Eastern Washington (FCS) — day-2 capital fully decayed at NFL year 10 (§1 decay rule: believe the usage record). Age 33 (born 1993-06-15 — Sleeper, 2026-07-07); slot/possession profiles decline later than speed profiles (§6), but he is 3 years past the WR-30 decline line and the 2025 earning-rate drop is the usage record confirming the curve. No year-2/3 or post-hype screen applies. Not a breakout candidate — a floor/contingency veteran.
Context (data/team-profiles/SEA.md, 2026-07-07)
- Offense shape: first-time play-caller Brian Fleury explicitly retaining Kubiak's system — expect run-tilted (−6.8% PROE, 52.8% neutral pass rate, 24th pace), ~29 pass att/gm, heavy multi-TE personnel. A low-volume pass offense is the multiplier on everything above; Kupp needs efficiency he no longer shows to beat it.
- QB: Sam Darnold, locked starter, champion continuity. Profile's contingency note favors Kupp: if Darnold ever missed time, short-area slot targets hold value best of SEA's receivers.
- Target competition: JSN (35.8% TS, record extension) is immovable; Barner (68 targets, 6 TD, RZ claim) healthy for camp; Shaheed re-signed for the deep work; Tory Horton is the live threat — 22 targets/5 TD and 5 end-zone targets in 8 rookie games, on track for early training camp after shin surgery (seahawks.com/SI, June 2026), with NFL.com camp reporting him "making multiple plays every day." The team profile's own watch item flags Horton potentially pushing past Kupp by midseason. Only ~36 targets vacated (Walker) — no vacated-target windfall.
- Roster lock: $9M of 2026 salary vested 2026-02-13 (NBC Sports PFT); $12.9M base + $510K per-game bonuses, ~$17.5M cap (Spotrac/PFT, verified via search 2026-07-07). Zero cut risk in 2026.
- O-line: 5/5 returning starters, top-10 unit — supports the quick-game slot tree.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- JSN misses practice/game time with any multi-week injury → Kupp flips to TARGET immediately (playoff evidence is the thesis).
- Camp/preseason reports Horton taking first-team slot or 2-WR-set reps from Kupp → downgrade toward FADE/AVOID.
- Any new hamstring/heel/soft-tissue flare in camp (age 33 + recurrence = the one injury profile the methodology says to respect) → downgrade.
- Preseason shows Fleury's offense materially faster/more pass-heavy than the Kubiak prior (neutral pass rate >56%) → nudge projection up a tier.
- ADP rises inside ~130 (WR55 range) → flip to FADE; the verdict only holds at a near-free price.
Sources
data/stats/2025/receiving.csv,weekly.csv,ngs_receiving.csv,snap_counts.csv,participation.csv,ftn_charting.csv,injuries.csv,pbp_summary.csv;data/stats/2024/same tables (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07). Route participation/TPRR/coverage splits computed 2026-07-07 from participation.csv dropback joins (on-field-for-dropback proxy for routes); RZ/end-zone/depth/location mix computed 2026-07-07 from raw nflverse pbp (2025 REG).data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— ADP 169.1, WR71 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07).data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 33, DOB 1993-06-15, SWR, active.data/team-profiles/SEA.md(built/verified 2026-07-07) — all coaching/scheme/volume/hierarchy context.- Web (searched 2026-07-07): NBC Sports PFT — $9M 2026 guarantee vested 2026-02-13; Spotrac/OTC — 2026 cap $17.47M, $12.9M base; seahawks.com — 2026 offseason program takeaways, Kupp OTA presser (2026-06-04); NFL.com — Horton camp buzz; SI/seahawks.com — Horton shin recovery, early-camp timeline (June 2026); Field Gulls — camp position battles (2026); PFF via search — 2025 grade 70.2 (40th/81); PFN — slot-rate history (≥50% since 2019; pre-2025 article).
- UNVERIFIED: provider xFP; exact 2025 slot%; true MOF-vs-boundary target share (tri-split proxy used); 2022–23 games-played counts and comp-season stat lines (pre-2026 training knowledge).