SEA
NE
@ARI
@WAS
LAC
SF
@DEN
KC
CHI
@LV
DAL
NYG
@PHI
LAR
@CARSam Darnold — QB, SEA (2026)
Verdict
HOLD at ADP 144.2 (QB19, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07). The market and the profile agree almost exactly: Darnold is a reigning-champion, elite-efficiency pocket passer (CPOE +5.24, EPA/dropback +0.134 in 2025) trapped in the league's most volume-hostile fantasy environment — a −6.8% PROE, 28-attempt-per-game, positive-script offense — with literally zero rushing contribution (0 rush TDs, 0 inside-5 carries, 0.34 rushing xTD in 2025). He was QB13 in season total points but QB23 in PPG (14.67), with 7 of 17 games under 10 points — a bench/streamer profile in 1QB, priced like one at pick 144. No "why the market is wrong" line is required (HOLD): the market sees exactly what the data sees. Take him happily as a QB2 if he falls; do not reach, and do not expect a startable weekly floor.
Bull case
- Elite, sticky, QB-owned efficiency with perfect continuity: back-to-back elite CPOE (+3.85 → +5.24), +0.134 EPA/dropback, league-leading-tier 8.46 YPA — now returning the entire OL, the entire receiving corps, the record-contract WR1, and the same scheme tree. If any efficiency profile carries over, it's this one.
- Every volume lever points up from a near-bottom base: Fleury's stated "tempo and aggressiveness" emphasis, Walker gone with Charbonnet on PUP (early-season pass tilt), and JSN commanding a 35.8% target share — from 28.1 att/gm, even +3 attempts/gm at his YPA is ~+25 points, and the QB19 price charges nothing for it.
- Cheapest guaranteed 17-game starter in football: 34 straight starts, no benching risk, top-10 OL, champion offense — at pick 144 the QB13 total-points finish simply repeats if nothing changes, which is fine value for a QB2/streaming anchor.
Bear case
- Zero rushing, zero floor: 0.79% designed-rush rate, 2.71% scramble rate (declining), 0 inside-5 carries, 0.34 rushing xTD. In 4pt-TD scoring he has no Konami component at all — and it showed: 7 of 17 games under 10 points, unstartable in 1QB without a matchup read.
- The archetype is volume-capped by design: −6.8% PROE, 23rd in neutral pass rate, 24th in pace, 10.5-win positive scripts, and a first-time play-caller whose explicit mandate is *continuity with a run-tilted champion*. QB23 in PPG (14.67) despite elite efficiency — the QB13 total-points rank is a 17-games-played mirage, not a weekly edge.
- What regression exists points down: +3.5 pass TDs over xTD in 2025 (+4.9 in 2024), INT-worthy rate rising (3.30% → 3.79%), and a late-season aDOT collapse into checkdown range (~6.3 intended air yards weeks 13–18) that suggests defenses had already squeezed the deep game before the playoffs.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components (scoring-framework §2), 17-game base, league scoring (4pt pass TD, −1 INT, −2 fum lost):
Passing (median): ~61 plays/gm × ~53% pass − sacks/scrambles ≈ 28.5 att/gm × 17 = ~485 attempts (2025 actual: 477 — passing.csv) × 8.0 YPA (2025's league-leading-tier 8.46 regressed for first-year play-caller install drag; corps continuity per team profile supports staying near it) = ~3,880 yds. 23 pass TD anchored to xTD (2025 passing xTD 21.5 vs 25 actual; 2024 xTD 30.1 vs 35 — he runs +3.5 to +5 hot; blended xTD rate ~4.7–4.8% × 485). 12 INT from FTN INT-worthy rate (3.79% of attempts 2025, 3.30% 2024 → ~17 IW throws → 11–13 INTs), not last year's 14.
Rushing (median — projected separately; there is no floor here): ~2.0 carries/gm *including kneels*; only 22 non-kneel carries in 2025 → ~90 net rush yds, 0–1 rush TD (rushing xTD 0.34 in 2025; 5 QB sneaks was the entire short-yardage role — FTN charting join, computed 2026-07-07). The rushing component adds ~12 points to the season. That is the whole story of this eval.
| Scenario | Points | PPG | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (p20) | 188 | ~11.5 | Efficiency regresses (YPA ~7.4), 19 TD, INT-worthy luck lands (15 INT), 1–2 games missed |
| Median (p50) | 240 | ~14.1 | 3,880 yds, 23 TD, 12 INT, ~90 rush yds, 0–1 rush TD — a rerun of 2025 (249.4 league pts) |
| Ceiling (p80) | 280 | ~16.5 | Fleury's tempo emphasis is real: ~520 att × 8.3 YPA ≈ 4,300 yds, 28 TD — fringe QB1 total, still modest PPG |
Games risk: low — 34 consecutive regular-season starts (2024–25, weekly.csv), pocket profile, top-10 OL with 5/5 starters returning (team profile, 2026-07-07).
Sanity check vs external: ESPN 2026 projection has 4,012 yds, 24 TD/12 INT, 125 rush yds, 1 rush TD, 242.3 pts (via rotoballer/centraloregondaily coverage, fetched 2026-07-07) — within 1% of this median. No data/projections/ directory exists locally.
Comp seasons (profile: efficient, low-volume pocket QB in a run-tilted winning offense): Sam Darnold 2025 SEA (the direct anchor — QB13 total / QB23 PPG); Geno Smith 2023 SEA; Brock Purdy 2023 SF (same Shanahan-tree, high-end of range); Tua Tagovailoa 2023 MIA (big total-points rank, unstartable stretches); Jared Goff 2022 DET (pocket manager, script-capped).
Usage profile — opportunity core (qb.md §2)
All 2025 REG values computed from nflverse pbp / cached CSVs (pulled/computed 2026-07-07) unless noted. 2024 (MIN) in parentheses.
| Metric | 2025 value | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rush attempts / gm | 2.06 incl. kneels; 1.29 real (22 non-kneel / 17) (2024: 2.6) | Concern | 13 of 35 "carries" were kneels |
| Designed rush rate | 0.79% of team plays (8 designed carries) (2024: 1.61%) | Concern | No designed package exists |
| Scramble rate | 2.71% of dropbacks (14 scrambles, 89 yds) (2024: 4.51%) | Concern | Below the 3.5% good-band floor and falling |
| Rushing yds / gm | 5.6 net (95 yds incl. kneel losses) (2024: 12.5) | Concern | Worth ~9 season points |
| RZ rush share | 2.1% (2 of 96 team RZ carries) (2024: 10.3%) | Concern | RB/goal-line-run offense (team inside-10 pass rate 42.5%, 24th — team profile) |
| Inside-5 carries | 0 (5 QB sneaks all season — FTN) (2024: 2) | Concern | No goal-line equity |
| Rushing xTD | 0.34 (actual 0) (2024: 1.42) | Concern | Nothing to regress toward |
| Dropbacks / gm | 30.4 (516 incl. scrambles / 17) (2024: 36.5) | Concern/borderline | Barely above the <30 gate |
| Pass attempts / gm | 28.1 (477/17) (2024: 32.1) | Concern | Below the 30–35 good band |
| Team PROE | −6.8% (nfelo 2025, via team profile); neutral pass 52.8%, 23rd | Concern | Play-caller intent is run-first; system prior retained under Fleury |
| xFP / gm | ~13.9 PPG internal estimate (actual 14.67 less ~+3.5 TD-over-xTD) — no provider xFP on hand (UNVERIFIED vs provider) | Low-end QB2 | Usage says he *slightly overperformed* even his modest 2025 rank |
Rushing decomposition (qb.md §3): designed 8-for-19-0, scrambles 14-for-89-0, kneels 13 (2025 REG pbp). At age 29 (b. 1997-06-05 — Sleeper players JSON, 2026-07-07) with a shrinking scramble rate, project zero growth; there is no rushing component to age-adjust because there is no rushing component.
Efficiency (qb.md §5) — the other half of the ledger, and it's genuinely excellent:
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | +0.134 (incl. scrambles; +0.126 passer-only) | +0.084 | Good, near-elite |
| CPOE (nflfastR) | +5.24 (NGS CPOE +4.31) | +3.85 (NGS +2.80) | Elite, back-to-back — QB-owned and sticky |
| YPA | 8.46 | 7.91 | Elite |
| Pressure-to-sack | 18.6% (27 sacks / 145 pressures) | 22.7% (48/211) | Mid — improved sharply behind SEA's OL |
| TWP proxy (FTN INT-worthy / att) | 3.79% (18 IW, 14 INT) | 3.30% (18 IW, 12 INT) | Mid, drifting toward concern |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 11.1% | 12.6% | Good |
| aDOT | 7.85 | 8.45 | Ideal band |
| Play-action rate | 25.2% of dropbacks | 27.1% | Good (play-caller-owned) |
Late-season split that matters: weeks 13–18 his intended air yards collapsed to ~3.6–7.3/gm (season avg 8.3) with three negative-CPOE games (NGS weekly, 2025) — the offense went checkdown-flavored down the stretch, and 4 of his last 6 regular-season games scored under 12 league points. The playoff run (56/91, 672 yds, 5 TD, 0 INT over 3 games incl. the Super Bowl LX win — NGS POST) restores confidence in the player, not the weekly fantasy shape.
INT ledger read: 14 INTs on 18 IW throws is an unusually high conversion — if anything mild turnover *bad* luck in 2025, a small hidden positive. But the IW rate itself rose year-over-year; net neutral.
Archetype (qb.md §10): game-managed ceiling-capped starter (PROE ≤−4%, ≤30 att/gm, ~0% designed runs) with elite efficiency — "real-life fine, fantasy dead — never a TARGET at starter price." Pick 144 is not starter price, which is exactly why this is HOLD and not FADE.
Context (from data/team-profiles/SEA.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Champion continuity, first-time caller: SEA won Super Bowl LX (29–13 over NE). OC Klint Kubiak left for the Raiders HC job; Brian Fleury (7 years on Shanahan's SF staff) is a first-time play-caller at any level whose stated goal is "to maintain" Kubiak's offense (NFL.com/seahawks.com). Darnold, on his 10th NFL OC (centraloregondaily.com), reports "it hasn't been too much of a transition... a couple different wrinkles here and there" and praises Fleury's command (ESPN 2026-06-03; seahawks.com OTA/minicamp coverage, June 2026). Profile stability: low — every tendency is a system prior, not a Fleury track record.
- The system prior is the problem: 2025 SEA was −6.8% PROE, 52.8% neutral pass rate (23rd), 30.4 sec/play (24th), ~50% multi-TE/FB sets, 42.5% inside-10 pass rate (24th). Fleury has flagged "tempo, physicality and aggressiveness" as emphases (fox13seattle.com, Feb 2026) — the one live upside lever.
- Pass-catcher continuity is perfect: JSN (2025 AP Off. Player of the Year, NFL-high 1,793 yds, 35.8% target share) extended at a record $168.6M; Kupp, Shaheed, Barner, Arroyo all return. Zero departed targets of consequence (~36 vacated, all Walker's). Continuity check (qb.md §4) passes fully → believe the efficiency carryover.
- OL: 5/5 starters return; PBWR 65% (12th), RBWR 73% (8th); Darnold pressured on ~21–28% of dropbacks depending on charting basis. Good and young.
- Backfield: SB MVP Kenneth Walker III left (KC); R1 pick Jadarian Price + Emanuel Wilson while Zach Charbonnet (ACL, 2026-01-17) opens on PUP with a mid-October-earliest return. A thinner early-season backfield is a mild pass-tilt argument weeks 1–6.
- Script: Vegas win total 10.5 (DraftKings via CBS, 2026-07-01) → positive script lean → leading teams run; the volume cap is structural, not incidental.
- Job security: absolute — SB champion on a 3yr/$100.5M deal through 2027; backups are Drew Lock and Jalen Milroe (R3, rushing-first — watch for goal-line package poaching, currently zero evidence of one).
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- Camp/preseason shows a real pass-rate or tempo shift — Fleury's offense operating meaningfully above 2025's 52.8% neutral pass rate / 24th-ranked pace → upside tripwire, likely flips to TARGET at this price.
- ADP rises inside ~pick 115 / QB14 — paying starter price for a game-managed ceiling-capped archetype → flips to FADE.
- JSN misses time or holds in (35.8% of the passing game) or Barner/Kupp availability changes the top-3 target continuity → efficiency carryover assumption breaks.
- Any Milroe short-yardage/goal-line package appears in camp reports — it would siphon the only TD equity Darnold doesn't own already.
- Darnold injury or any competitive QB addition (none rostered today — Lock/Milroe behind him).
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/— passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_passing.csv, ftn_charting.csv, participation.csv, pbp_summary.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07).- nflverse play-by-play 2024–2025 REG via nflreadpy (computed 2026-07-07): EPA/dropback, CPOE, aDOT, deep-ball rate, designed-vs-scramble split, kneel filter, RZ/inside-10/inside-5 carries, RZ rush share, passing/rushing xTD (yardline-bucket model), league-scoring points and QB ranks.
- FTN charting joins (computed 2026-07-07): INT-worthy throws (TWP proxy), play-action rate, QB sneaks, QB-fault sacks, screens, throwaways. Participation join: pressures, pressure-to-sack.
data/team-profiles/SEA.md(built/verified 2026-07-07): Fleury hire + continuity quotes, PROE/pace/personnel, OL win rates, depth chart, Charbonnet ACL timeline, Vegas 10.5 win total, Darnold contract, backup tiers.data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— Darnold 144.2, QB19 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07).data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 29, b. 1997-06-05, USC, 8 years exp, depth chart QB1.- Web (fetched 2026-07-07): ESPN "Darnold sees little 'transition'" (2026-06-03); seahawks.com offseason/minicamp takeaways + Fleury command quotes (June 2026); centraloregondaily.com "Fleury will be Darnold's 10th OC" / "top-10 fantasy QB?" (2026); rotoballer.com 2026 outlook citing ESPN projection (242.27 pts, 4,012/24/12); fantasylife.com QB2-in-superflex framing; FantasyPros consensus ~QB22–23.
UNVERIFIED: provider xFP (Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler page not pulled — internal xFP estimate used and labeled); PFF-definition TWP (FTN INT-worthy rate used as the TWP proxy); PFR-definition pressure rate (charting bases differ, both shown).
*League scoring assumed for this eval: full PPR, 4pt pass TD, −1 INT, no TE premium, 1QB — league-settings.md placeholders were unconfirmed as of 2026-07-07.*