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HOUJordan Love — QB, GB — 2026
Verdict
HOLD at ADP 130.0 (QB18, FFC PPR 1QB mocks, 2026-07-07). Profile and price agree almost exactly: Love has finished QB17 and QB15 in total points the last two seasons at 15.6–15.7 PPG (QB17/QB21 in PPG), and the market has him as QB18 in round 11. He is the archetype the methodology prices coldest in 1QB/4pt — a genuinely elite passer (0.262 EPA/dropback, +3.8 CPOE in 2025) with no rushing component (1.0 rushing xTD, two inside-5 carries) inside the league's most run-tilted, bottom-third-pace offense (25th–30th PROE three straight years under LaFleur). The bull path (consolidated healthy weapons + "let him cook" pass-lean talk) and the bear path (27th-ranked reshuffled OL + pass TDs running 4.6 over xTD) roughly cancel. No "why the market is wrong" line — the market isn't wrong; take him as a late QB/streamer anchor if he falls, don't reach.
Bull case
- The efficiency is real and QB-owned: 0.262 EPA/dropback, +3.8 CPOE, 2.3% INT-worthy rate, 14.1% deep-ball rate on a 8.8 aDOT — 2nd-in-NFL dropback EPA. If LaFleur ever gives him 2023's volume (579 att), the 2023 outcome (~QB7, 4,159/32) is the proof-of-concept ceiling already on his resume.
- Weapon consolidation with zero added competition: 148 vacated targets recycle to a healthier, better top four (Watson/Kraft/Reed/Golden all return, no skill pick in the first four rounds of the 2026 draft) — the best supporting-cast health Love has had since 2023, and the offseason messaging is explicitly about featuring the best weapons more (atozsports 6/2026).
- The price is a free square: pick 130/QB18 for a locked-in starter who has returned QB17/QB15 totals two straight injury-dinged seasons. There is no capital at risk; QB19–22 behind him (Darnold, Murray, Stroud) carry worse situations or worse resumes.
Bear case
- No Konami component at all: 1.0 rushing xTD, two inside-5 carries, 6.4% RZ rush share, 1.1% designed-run rate, 14 rush yds/gm. In 4pt-TD scoring his floor is whatever the pass game gives that week — six games under 12 points in 2025 — and the methodology's first predictor of QB fantasy scoring is simply absent.
- Volume is structurally capped by his own coach: three straight years of bottom-quartile PROE, bottom-third pace, 29.4 att/gm, and now a 9.5–10.5 win total feeding clock-killing scripts. The elite efficiency multiplies a base that LaFleur keeps small on purpose.
- Both 2025 pillars face 2026 pressure: pass TDs ran +4.6 over xTD for the second straight year (regression anchor says ~21–22, not 25+), INTs ran below even his INT-worthy rate (6 → project 9–10), and the rebuilt 27th-ranked OL (three first-year starters at LT/C/RG, RT off patellar surgery) attacks the clean pockets the whole profile depends on. Plus he's finished neither of the last two seasons healthy (15 games each).
Projection & comps
Bottom-up, two components (per scoring-framework §2), PPR (assumed), 4pt pass TD:
Passing (median): 61 team plays/gm × ~57% pass rate ≈ 30 att/gm (team profile projection; 2025 actual 29.4/gm) × 16 games = 480 attempts. YPA 7.5 (2025: 7.70; 2024: 7.97; haircut for OL overhaul, small credit for healthier corps) → ~3,600 yards. Pass TDs anchored to xTD: two-year xTD rate 4.2–4.8% (18.4 xTD on 441 att in 2025; 20.4 on 428 in 2024) with a small bump for two straight years of overperformance → 22 TD. INTs from INT-worthy rate (2.27% 2025 / 3.74% 2024, FTN), not the 6-INT 2025 ledger → 9 INT.
Rushing (the floor — projected separately, and here it is nearly zero): ~2.3 carries/gm ex-kneel × 16 ≈ 37 carries at ~5.6 y/c (scramble-driven) → ~180 yards; rush TDs anchored to rushing xTD (1.02 in 2025, 1.29 in 2024, actuals 0 and 1) → 1 rush TD. Age 27 (28 in Nov) — no age haircut yet, but there is almost nothing to haircut.
| Scenario | Games | Pass | Rush | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Floor (p20) | 13.5 | 2,820 yds, 16 TD, 8 INT (OL trouble, TD rate at raw xTD, injury repeat) | 140 yds, 0 TD | ~180 |
| Median (p50) | 16 | 3,600 yds, 22 TD, 9 INT | 180 yds, 1 TD | ~240 |
| Ceiling (p80) | 17 | 4,000+ yds, 27–28 TD (real pass-lean shift + TD rate stays hot) | 210 yds, 2 TD | ~295 |
Games-played risk: medium — 15 games in each of the last two seasons (2024: knee/groin; 2025: left-thumb procedure in camp, non-throwing-shoulder, Dec 20 concussion — cleared protocol early Jan 2026, no offseason surgery, full participant in June 2026 minicamp). Low rush exposure works in his favor; the miss pattern is real anyway.
Comps: Aaron Rodgers 2019 (first LaFleur year: 4,002/26/4, ~253 pts — the efficient-QB-in-this-exact-offense comp) · Kirk Cousins 2019 MIN (3,603/26 on a run-tilted team, ~235 — the median shape) · Jordan Love 2024–25 themselves (233.9 / 235.1 — the base rate) · Jared Goff 2023 (4,575/30, ~295 — the ceiling shape) · Tua Tagovailoa 2022 (13 games, ~217 — the injury-floor shape). No external projections on disk (data/projections/ does not exist) — no sanity-check disagreements to report.
Usage profile (qb.md §2/§5 tables)
All 2025 values REG-only, 15 games, computed from nflverse pbp/NGS/FTN pulled 2026-07-07 unless noted.
| Metric | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rush att/gm (ex-kneel) | 2.27 (34 att) | 1.20 (18) | Concern (<2.5) | No rush volume; 47 nflverse carries incl. 13 kneels |
| Designed rush rate | 10 designed carries ≈ 1.1% of plays | 6 ≈ 0.7% | Concern (<2%) | LaFleur runs no QB package for him; 3 sneaks/yr (FTN) |
| Scramble rate | 4.9% of dropbacks (24) | 2.6% (12) | Good | The only live rush signal — and it's the fragile kind (coverage/OL-dependent) |
| Rush yds/gm | 14.1 | 6.0 | Low | 183 of 211 yds came on scrambles |
| RZ rush share | 6.4% (6 of 94 team RZ carries) | 9.0% | Concern | Jacobs owns the goal line (13 rush TD 2025) |
| Inside-5 carries | 2 | 2 | Concern (≤2) | No sneak/keeper role |
| Rushing xTD | 1.02 | 1.29 | Concern (<1.5) | Anchor rush TDs ≈ 1 |
| Dropbacks/gm | 32.3 (485) | 30.3 (454) | Below good (33–38) | Volume gate not met |
| Pass att/gm | 29.4 | 28.3 | Below good (30–35) | Team 28.8 att/gm, 29th-rank dropbacks/gm (NBC, 2026-07-07 fetch) |
| Team PROE | rank 25th (value UNVERIFIED) | −4.5% (30th) | Concern (≤−4%) | Three straight bottom-quartile years (team profile) |
| xFP | ~15.3 xPPG (computed: actual pass yds + 4×pass xTD + 6×rush xTD + rush yds − INTs) | ~14.9 | Low-end QB2 | Provider xFP UNVERIFIED (no Fantasy Points/PlayerProfiler export on disk); actual 15.7 PPG ran slightly hot vs usage |
| Efficiency | 2025 | 2024 | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA/dropback | 0.262 | 0.137 | Elite (≥0.18) | Computed from nflfastR pbp; GB team dropback EPA 0.27, 2nd in NFL (NBC via team profile) |
| CPOE | +3.82 | −1.22 | Elite (≥3.0) | NGS. One-year change — 2-season rule says don't fully bank it yet |
| INT-worthy rate (TWP proxy, FTN) | 2.27% | 3.74% | Elite/good | 2025 INTs (6, 1.4%) ran *below* even the worthy rate — mild luck-to-land; project 9–10 INTs, not 6 |
| Pressure-to-sack | 15.2% (21 of 138) | 10.8% | Good (<20) | QB-owned and fine; only 5 of 21 sacks charted QB-fault (FTN) |
| Pressure rate faced | 28.5% of dropbacks | 28.6% | Mid on nflverse charting scale | Held flat pre-overhaul; 2026 OL is the risk (below) |
| Deep-ball rate (20+ air yds) | 14.1% | 15.9% | Elite (≥12) | Real ceiling arm; aDOT 8.82 in the ideal 7.5–9.5 band |
| Play-action rate | 23.5% | 21.8% | Good | Scheme-owned (LaFleur tree) |
| Pass TD vs xTD | 23 vs 18.4 (+4.6) | 25 vs 20.4 (+4.6) | Regression flag | Two straight hot years; anchor at ~4.5%, not 5.2% |
Archetype (qb.md §10): game-managed, ceiling-capped starter — PROE ≤−4%-class, ~29 attempts, ~1% designed-run rate — with elite efficiency bolted on. Methodology is explicit: never a TARGET at *starter* price regardless of efficiency; QB18/pick 130 is not starter price, which is what keeps this HOLD rather than FADE. Six of fifteen 2025 games came in under 12 fantasy points — the weekly floor problem in one line.
Context (from data/team-profiles/GB.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Play-caller: Matt LaFleur, 8th year, keeping play-calling (packersnews 2026-04-07). Highest-stability QB-coach pairing possible — and the cap on the profile: 25th/30th/10th PROE 2025/2024/2023, 27.5 s/snap pace (9th slowest), 35 dropbacks/gm (29th) despite the NFL's 2nd-best dropback EPA (0.27) vs 21st-rank rush EPA (−0.07). He leaves pass volume on the table by design. Offseason "strip it down"/more-aggressive talk exists (atozsports, packers.com minicamp 6/2026), but beat analysis calls a massive pass-lean shift unlikely (NBC 6/2026).
- O-line — the live 2026 risk: 2 of 5 return at the same position. First-year LT (Morgan), first-year C (Rhyan), first-year full-time RG (Belton); RT Zach Tom coming off patellar-tendon surgery (~Week 1 expected, camp in doubt). Preseason unit rank ~27th (Sharp Football / ESPN Clay via Yardbarker 6/2026). Interior pressure threatens exactly what made 2025 work — clean-pocket efficiency and the 14% deep-ball rate.
- Pass-catchers — the bull side: 148 targets vacated (Doubs 85, Wicks 46, Wilson 17) with zero draft capital added — the feeding-opportunity green flag accrues to Watson (extended 4-yr/$92M; 37% air-yards share weeks 8–18), Kraft (2nd in TE YPRR pre-ACL; Week 1 expected), Reed (healthy, primary slot), and year-2 R1 Golden. Continuity check passes: the *departed* 40%-threshold worry is inverted here — the top of the tree returns, the churn was the bottom.
- Script: Vegas win total 9.5 (FanDuel, 2026-07-07) / DK opener 10.5 — positive lean = leading-team run-out scripts, another volume cap (qb.md §7).
- Job security: absolute — $220M through 2028, backups Ridder/McCord. No benching-risk discount anywhere.
- QB room contingency and Jacobs legal flag per the team profile; a Jacobs absence would shift goal-line TDs toward the pass but worsen scripts.
Tripwires (re-run this eval if any fire)
- League scoring confirmed 6pt pass TD, or a superflex/2QB slot added → verdict likely upgrades to TARGET at this price (pocket TD volume gains ~2 pts/TD; QB18 has real scarcity value in 2QB).
- ADP rises past ~105 (into the QB12–14 dead-zone band) → flips to FADE — starter cost without positional edge.
- OL deterioration: Zach Tom not ready for Week 1, or camp reports of the interior (Rhyan/Belton) losing jobs/struggling badly → floor drops, lean FADE.
- Pass-catcher health: Kraft ACL setback, or Watson/Reed multi-week camp injury → the consolidation thesis breaks; floor drops.
- Concrete pass-lean install: camp/preseason reporting of materially higher tempo/pass rate ("let Love cook" made real), or ADP drifts past ~150 → upgrade toward TARGET.
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/— passing.csv, rushing.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_passing.csv, ftn_charting.csv, participation.csv, pbp_summary.csv, injuries.csv (nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07): all counting stats, NGS CPOE/aDOT/time-to-throw, weekly logs, injury designations- nflfastR play-by-play 2024–2025 via nflreadpy
load_pbp(computed 2026-07-07): EPA/dropback, designed-vs-scramble split, kneel exclusion, RZ/inside-10/inside-5 carries, rushing xTD and passing xTD (league TD-probability-by-yardline buckets, REG only), deep-ball rate, aDOT cross-check - FTN charting joins (cached
ftn_charting.csv× pbp play IDs, computed 2026-07-07): INT-worthy rate (TWP proxy), play-action %, RPO %, out-of-pocket %, QB sneaks, QB-fault sacks, blitz rate faced;participation.csvjoin: pressure rate faced, pressure-to-sack (nflverse charting basis — runs higher than PFR-definition pressure; noted where used) data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— ADP 130.0, QB18 (FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 27 (DOB 1998-11-02), 6 years exp, Utah Statedata/team-profiles/GB.md(built 2026-07-07) — LaFleur PROE/pace history, OL overhaul detail, vacated-target math, depth chart, Vegas 9.5–10.5, Jacobs flag, QB-room contingency- Web (fetched 2026-07-07): ESPN — Love ruled out (concussion) Week 17; profootballrumors 2026-01 — cleared protocol, sat Week 18; packers.com 2026-01-08 "zero concerns about rust"; beat reporting via search — no offseason surgery, finished season healthy, full minicamp participant June 2026; packers.com minicamp Day 1 (2026-06-09) — footwork focus; atozsports 6/2026 — evolving pass-game approach; NBC Sports GB fantasy preview (2026) — pass-heavy shift discussed but deemed unlikely
- League scoring:
methodology/league-settings.mdplaceholders — assumed full PPR, 4pt pass TD, 1QB, no TE premium (unconfirmed; tripwire #1) - No provider xFP/TWP export on disk (PFF/Fantasy Points) — TWP proxied by FTN INT-worthy rate; provider xFP marked UNVERIFIED