Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson — WR, NYJ — 2026

Verdict

HOLD at ADP 26.9 (WR13, FFC PPR mocks, 2026-07-07), medium confidence. The market's case is fair and I largely agree with it: a 25-year-old with two straight seasons of elite in-game usage (26.0% TS in 2024; 33.7% TS / 0.845 WOPR when healthy in 2025), fully recovered from a no-surgery knee sprain, getting his first accurate rhythm passer (Geno Smith) — priced at WR13 instead of the WR7–9 he cost pre-injury. But the price already nets out the two opposing forces: elite, sticky personal usage vs. a play-caller (Frank Reich) whose career-long signature is funneling targets to TEs/RBs at WRs' expense, two first-round pass-catchers added, and a 36-year-old QB on a 5.5-win team. My median (~220 PPR) lands almost exactly on recent WR13 finish value — profile and price agree, so no "market is wrong" thesis clears the bar. Take him happily if he slides into round 3+; don't reach.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up, PPR (assumed). Team inputs from data/team-profiles/NYJ.md (built 2026-07-07): ~62 plays/g, ~59–60% dropback, ~33 pass att/g (~561 team attempts) vs 2025's 29.1/g — the Fields→Geno swap adds ~13% team pass volume even as Wilson's share compresses.

• Floor = knee recurrence and/or the Reich funnel fully biting (share to low-20s, Geno decline). Median = alpha role holds but compresses from 2025's barren-room 33.7% to ~25% — between his 2024 share and Reich's WR-funnel history. Ceiling ≈ a healthy repeat of his 2024 usage (153 targets, 251.9 PPR) with slightly better QB efficiency.
• TD anchor: 4 TD on 59 targets in 2025 (6.8%/tgt) is spike-rate on a small sample; 2024 was 7 on 153 (4.6%). Median 6 assumes ~4.5% on 132 targets in a bottom-quartile scoring offense — usage-based, not a carry-forward of the 2025 rate. RZ/end-zone target counts UNVERIFIED (below), so xTD is attempt-share-based.
• Catch-rate note: 61.0% in 2025 / 65.6% in 2024 (NGS) with Fields/Taylor/Rodgers — QB-driven. Geno is a rhythm/accuracy passer; 65% median is conservative.
• Games risk: medium — same right knee sprained twice in 2025 (Week 6, re-sprained on 19-snap Week 10 return; no surgery; full OTA participant per newyorkjets.com 2026-05-29). Before 2025 he'd never missed a game (51/51, 2022–24).
• Median PPG check: 220 / 16 ≈ 13.8 — WR13–16 range; recent WR13 season totals: 240 (2024), 220 (2025) per cached receiving.csv. Price ≈ median.

Comps (similar role/profile seasons): Michael Pittman Jr. 2021 (88-1,082-6 on 129 tgt under Reich in IND — the direct Reich-WR1 comp, ≈ my median) · Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2024 (100-1,130-6 on 137 tgt as Geno's WR1 — median-to-ceiling; confirmed via SI, 2026) · Garrett Wilson 2024 (self-comp, 101-1,104-7, 251.9 PPR — ceiling-side) · Terry McLaurin 2022 (77-1,191-5 amid QB chaos on a bad team — median-side) · T.Y. Hilton 2018 (76-1,270-6 in 14 games under Reich — the efficiency-spike variant).

Usage profile (opportunity core, wr.md §2)

All 2024/2025 numbers: nflverse REG tables pulled 2026-07-07 unless noted. Routes = pass-play on-field proxy from participation.csv (charted dropbacks in his games). 2025 shares computed within his 7 games played (full-season denominators are meaningless for a 7-game season).

Efficiency & quality (wr.md §3–6):

• YPRR (proxy): 1.74 (2024) → 2.14 (2025) — good band trending up despite the QB room; external corroboration: 1.92 through six weeks (PFF via web, 2026-07-07).
• First downs/route: 0.095 (2024) / 0.097 (2025) — good band, stable.
• aDOT: 8.9 (2024) / 9.4 (2025) intended (NGS) — squarely in the 8–13 sweet spot; full-tree receiver, not a screen or go-route profile. Depth-band mix and MOF/boundary mix: UNVERIFIED (no Fantasy Points target-location export in data/raw/).
• The §6 buy signal fires: elite TPRR (0.319) + depressed catch rate (61.0%) with Fields/Taylor at QB is the textbook "good WR, bad QB" pattern — efficiency upside arrives with the QB, not a new skill.
• YAC over expected: +0.28/rec (2024) → −0.03/rec (2025, NGS) — neutral; not a YAC-manufactured profile.
• Drop rate: UNVERIFIED for 2025 (not in cached tables; no reliable web figure found).
• Separation: 3.27 (2024) / 3.06 (2025) yds at target (NGS) — wins with routes, no contested-catch dependence to regress.
• Coverage exposure (participation.csv, on-field charted dropbacks): 52.4% man (2024) / 31.2% man (2025). Target-level man/zone production splits: UNVERIFIED. Qualitatively a separator, which is the profile that survives both coverage worlds.
• Alignment: perimeter — Sleeper depth chart RWR1 (2026-07-07); team profile slots him "X/perimeter (moves)". Career YPRR 1.97 slot vs 1.54 wide (PFF via web, 2026-07-07), but rookie R1 Omar Cooper Jr. was named the starting slot after minicamp (SI, June 2026) — the more efficient alignment is now occupied. Exact 2025 slot%: UNVERIFIED.
• Archetype: Alpha X by usage (TS ≥26%, AYS ≥35% both years, full tree) — the archetype that's usually worth its price; here the situation multiplier, not the player, is the discount.

Context (from data/team-profiles/NYJ.md, built 2026-07-07)

• Regime reset, stability: low. New play-caller Frank Reich (confirmed caller, hired 2026-02-04), new QB Geno Smith (trade, 2026-03-10), Glenn calling defense. Year-1 install drag expected.
• The Reich funnel is the core bear input: WRs got just 54.8% of targets across his OC/HC stops; TE target share ≥20% in 8 of 10 seasons; RB share ≥19.2% in 6 of 10; only 3 WRs ever hit 15+ PPR PPG under him, all needing 8.6+ tgt/g (CBS Sports, 2026 — via team profile). CBS explicitly projects Wilson's volume down. Counterweight: Wilson publicly praised the system and Reich says he'll let Wilson freelance to get open (ESPN OTA notebook, June 2026) — soft evidence.
• QB: Geno Smith, age 36, off a 17-INT year in LV — but an accurate rhythm passer who fed JSN a 137-target WR10 season in 2024. Clear passing-volume upgrade over Fields (29.1 → ~33 att/g projected). Contingency: Zappe/Klubnik = tier C; Wilson's treatment is worst-hit if Geno goes down (profile contingency line).
• Target competition: ~115 targets vacated (24%) — but capital was added: TE Kenyon Sadiq (R1#16, named TE1), WR Omar Cooper Jr. (R1#30, named starting slot), plus Breece Hall extended ($15.25M APY) with Reich's RB-target history. Wilson is still the unambiguous No. 1 ($130M extension, "the team's best player" — SI, June 2026), but the vacated-target green flag does *not* fire cleanly.
• O-line / environment: strong tackle bookends, shaky interior (Myers 52.9 PFF) — interior pressure caps the deep game, pushes toward the quick/intermediate tree where Wilson lives. Vegas win total 5.5 → negative script: more pass attempts, fewer TDs. 2025 offense was 29th in scoring — the TD environment is the quietest cap on his ceiling.

Tripwires (re-run on any)

• Any right-knee recurrence or missed camp practices — games risk goes high; verdict likely drops.
• Geno Smith injury/benching signals or Klubnik camp buzz — NYJ pass-catcher ranges widen downward per the team-profile contingency.
• Camp/preseason target distribution showing the Reich funnel materializing (Sadiq/Hall dominating first-read work, Wilson preseason TS < ~22%) — re-run toward FADE.
• ADP drifts past ~36 (WR16–17, round 3/4 turn — where Sleeper/NFFC already price him per draftsharks/SI, July 2026) — re-run toward TARGET; the same profile a round later is positive EV.
• Win total steams to 6.5+ or beat reports of a pass-heavy install — volume input rises; re-check median upward.