Chicago Bears

CHI — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Ben Johnson (HC) — confirmed. Johnson called plays in 2025 and beat reporting confirms "the plan is still for Johnson to be calling the plays on offense" in 2026 (SI Bears/Sun-Times, Feb–June 2026). OC Declan Doyle left for the Ravens' OC job; pass-game coordinator Press Taylor was promoted to OC on 2026-02-08 (Chicago Sun-Times, NFL.com) and explicitly does not call plays ("None of it is calling plays" — SI, June 2026).
• Tenure with team: 2nd season (hired 2025-01-21 from DET OC) · Prior relationship with QB1: 1 full season with Caleb Williams (2025: 11–6, first CHI playoff win since 2010 season — chicagobears.com/Wikipedia).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read: Johnson is a run-tilted-by-PROE (−3.9%), high-motion, high-play-action caller who generates volume through efficiency and pace rather than pass-heaviness — CHI 2025 was 4th in plays/game (67.1) and 8th in EPA/play (+0.076) while below expected pass rate. He is 12-personnel-heavy (31% in 2025, ~2× the WR3-death threshold), which feeds two TEs (Loveland/Kmet) and caps the WR3's snaps, and he manufactures touches for his best YAC player — in 2025 that became Luther Burden III, whom Johnson has publicly committed to feeding ("get the ball in his hands as often as we possibly can" — Sun-Times, 2026-05-29). With DJ Moore's 85 targets traded away and no meaningful receiver capital added, the concentration behind Odunze/Burden/Loveland rises in year 2 of the install.

QB situation

• QB1: Caleb Williams — 2024 No. 1 overall pick, rookie deal through 2027 + 5th-year option; benching risk: none. 2025: 568 att, 58.1%, 3,942 yds (franchise single-season record — chicagobears.com), 27 TD / 7 INT, only 24 sacks taken; 77 carries, 383 rush yds, 3 TD (nflverse passing/rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). CPOE −6.9% and 3.20s avg time-to-throw (ngs_passing.csv) — accuracy and hero-ball habits are the remaining development items (Johnson named them 2026 areas of emphasis — chicagobears.com).
• Backup: Tyson Bagent (QB2), Case Keenum QB3 (re-signed 2 yr/$5.5M — ESPN FA tracker, March 2026) — tier C (borderline B): Bagent went 2–2 as a 2023 spot starter but has 4 career starts and a checkdown profile.
• Contingency line: If Williams misses time: Bagent, tier C — expect pass rate to fall ~3–5 points toward run/screen game, aDOT to compress sharply (Odunze's deep X role hit hardest), and Burden/Loveland underneath targets to hold value best; every pass-catcher's floor drops a tier per methodology §3.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Braxton Jones (re-signed 1 yr/$10M — ESPN FA tracker; only 4 starts in 2025 due to injury; named clear frontrunner post-minicamp — SI, June 2026) — Joe Thuney (98% PBWR, best IOL in ESPN's 2025 rankings) — Garrett Bradbury (trade: 2027 5th to NE, March 2026; replaces Drew Dalman, who retired at 27 — ESPN) — Jonah Jackson (restructured March 2026 — NFLTradeRumors) — Darnell Wright (95% PBWR). R2.57 rookie C Logan Jones (Rimington winner) sits behind Bradbury; 2025 swing tackle Ozzy Trapilo is out 9–12 months (patellar tendon, torn in the playoffs — A-to-Z Sports/clutchpoints, June 2026); Jedrick Wills Jr. signed 1-yr as OT depth.
• Interior vs edge: Interior is the strength — Thuney/Jackson posted 98%/96% PBWR and the unit ranked No. 1 in PBWR, so the deep/PA game is protected. Edge is the risk: LT is a 4-games-played re-signee whose top backup is injured; a Braxton Jones injury compresses the offense to the quick game and chips (methodology §4). Bradbury is a downgrade-to-neutral swap for Dalman at C with a rookie behind him.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: Wide/outside zone base with gap/duo mixed (Shanahan-tree; DET-carryover — WCG scheme series, 2025). 2025: 2,345 team rush yds, 3rd-most in NFL; 67 runs of 10+ (roundtable/bears.com). Fits one-cut sudden backs (Swift) and downhill grinders in the duo package (Monangai).
• Pass-game family: Shanahan/McVay tree — wide zone married to league-high play-action (30.3% of dropbacks), heavy motion (54.9% of dropbacks), 12-personnel-heavy (31.0%). Implications: YAC engine and intermediate in-breakers; slot/YAC profiles (Burden) and flexed TEs (Loveland) are fed schemed touches; mid aDOT overall with a deep-X iso role for Odunze (13.9 aDOT on his 2025 targets — receiving.csv); WR3 snaps are gated by 12 personnel.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — last-season targets / carries; sources: nflverse receiving/rushing.csv 2025; ESPN FA tracker + trade reporting, March 2026):

• DJ Moore — 85 tgt / 15 car (traded to BUF with a 2026 5th for a 2026 2nd — ESPN, March 2026)
• Olamide Zaccheaus — 65 tgt / 4 car (signed with ATL — atlantafalcons.com/NBC Chicago, March 2026)
• Durham Smythe — 6 tgt (2026 status UNVERIFIED, not on post-minicamp depth chart); Devin Duvernay — 5 tgt (same); Travis Homer — 1 car (same)

Vacated targets: 150 confirmed (Moore + Zaccheaus), ~161 incl. presumed · Vacated carries: ~25 (negligible) → Fires the §6 green flag: ≥120 vacated targets with no round-1–2 receiver capital added — the volume flows to incumbents.

Arrivals (name — claim):

• Kalif Raymond, WR — 1-yr deal (ESPN FA tracker, March 2026); Johnson's former DET slot/returner — depth claim only
• Zavion Thomas, WR — R3.89 (4.28-forty, led SEC in KR yards; drafted for WR4/5 + return game — ESPN draft analysis, April 2026)
• Sam Roush, TE — R3.69 (TE3/blocking + special teams as rookie — ESPN draft analysis)
• Garrett Bradbury, C — trade (2027 5th)

Projected pecking order (contested slots marked):

RB committee split: Swift is RB1/feature back; Monangai is the 1B pushing for more (contested — Marquee/247/SI camp reporting, June 2026). Early downs: Swift lead with heavy Monangai rotation (2025: 223 vs 169 carries; 44%/33% carry shares). Passing downs: Swift (RB coach Bienemy publicly critical of Monangai's pass pro — Marquee, June 2026). Goal line: mixed, Swift-tilted (9 vs 5 rush TD in 2025). Swift is in a contract year (SI, June 2026) and the org views Monangai as the eventual successor — split could flip in-season.

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 9.5 (BetMGM, O +105 / U −125; DraftKings also 9.5) — as-of 2026-07-07 → script lean: positive (≥9.5 band)
• Projected plays/game: ~65 (2025 actual 67.1, 4th in NFL — nflverse pbp_summary; start 63, +3 sustained-drive volume/pace, −1 positive-script clock-kill) · Projected pass rate: ~57% (2025 raw 59.7%; caller PROE −3.9%; positive-script trim)
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~33.5 · rush attempts/game: ~28 (65 plays × 57% = ~37 dropbacks − ~1.4 sacks − ~2 scrambles ≈ 33.5 att; 2025 actuals were 33.8 pass att/g and ~29.7 rush att/g incl. 4.5 QB carries/g; RB carries ≈ 23/g)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Dennis Allen (DC) — confirmed, retained for 2026 (chicagobears.com coaches page; WCG "most to prove in 2026," July 2026). HC Ben Johnson is offense-side; Allen has full control.
• Tenure with team: 2nd season (hired 2025) · New DC: no (dc_new: false) — 2025 scheme stats are valid, continuity green flag on scheme, offset by heavy back-end personnel turnover.
• Front/scheme family: 4-down front, man-heavy single-high-leaning shells (Cover-1 32.9% of dropbacks, top coverage — nflverse participation 2025)

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge/CB1 first): Edge: no additions — the room returns Montez Sweat (10 sacks, 12.5% pressure rate 2025 — Sharp Football, 2026) and Dayo Odeyingbo coming off a torn Achilles (Nov 2025; 1 sack, 5.3% pressure in 8 games — Sharp Football) — the unaddressed hole. CB1: Jaylon Johnson returns healthy after a 7-game 2025; strong OTA/minicamp reporting (roundtable/A-to-Z, June 2026). CB Malik Muhammad added R4.124. Back seven rebuilt: departed — S Kevin Byard, S Jaquan Brisker, S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, S Jonathan Owens (FA), LB Tremaine Edmunds (released); arrived — S Coby Bryant (3/$40M), S Dillon Thieneman (R1.25), LB Devin Bush (3/$30M), CB Cam Lewis, DT Neville Gallimore (2/$12M) (ESPN FA tracker + draft page, March–April 2026).
• Shadow-CB tendency: Jaylon Johnson travels/shadows opposing WR1s in Allen's man-heavy scheme (roundtable/WCG, 2026) — feeds the in-season CB-shadow check when healthy.

Read: A top-2 man-coverage-rate defense built on Cover-1 with a mid blitz rate and a below-average 4-man rush (PRWR 31st) — it won 2025 on a league-leading 33 takeaways (1st — def_summary), which is regression-prone, and the entire starting safety corps turned over (Bryant + R1 Thieneman are presumptive new starters). Man-heavy + Johnson shadow downgrades opposing man-beaten WR1s but leaves the defense pressure-dependent on Sweat and a rehabbing Odeyingbo; DST evals should price takeaway regression and a soft early-season floor if the rookie safety install lags.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — same play-caller (Johnson, year 2) + same QB1 (Williams) keeps it out of low, but only 3 of 5 OL start at their 2025 spots (Dalman retired → Bradbury; LT back to an oft-injured re-signee with the top backup out 9–12 months), and the No. 2/No. 3 targets (Moore 85, Zaccheaus 65) departed, reshuffling the hierarchy behind Odunze. RB1 (Swift vs Monangai) and the No. 2 target (Burden vs Loveland) are live but ordered battles.
• Watch items: (1) Braxton Jones health/LT play — the profile's biggest single point of failure; (2) camp reporting on Burden's slot vs Z alignment split and target concentration; (3) Monangai overtaking Swift (contract-year trade-bait angle — SI); (4) edge-rush addition or Odeyingbo setback (fires the defensive-identity trigger); (5) win-total moves off 9.5; (6) Kmet trade chatter re-igniting (SI/Bleacher Nation, May 2026 — currently expected to stay).