New Orleans Saints

NO — team profile

Built per methodology/team-context.md. Every number needs a source + as-of date or the UNVERIFIED mark. Position evals cite this file; they do not re-research it.

Play-caller

• Calls plays: Kellen Moore (HC) — confirmed. Moore called plays as HC in 2025 and is listed as the Saints' offensive play-caller for 2026 (Acme Packing Company league-wide play-caller roundup + louisianasports.net training-camp preview, retrieved 2026-07-07). OC Doug Nussmeier does not call plays.
• Tenure with team: entering year 2 (hired 2025-02-11, neworleanssaints.com) · Prior relationship with QB1: drafted Shough rd 2 in 2025 and developed him — Shough went 5-4 as starter after taking over in November (ESPN, 2026-01-08).

Last 3 play-calling stops (skip non-calling years):

Read (2–3 sentences): Moore is a fast-pace, high-volume caller — his first five play-calling offenses all ranked top-4 in sec/play and all six averaged ≥65 plays/game (DraftSharks, retrieved 2026-07-07) — but he is run-lean by PROE (−2.3%) and extremely run-lean at the goal line, which caps pass-catcher TD equity. 2025 was the first Moore offense without a 500-yard rusher and set his career-worst rushing ranks (louisianasports.net, 2026-01-12), and his stated 2026 fixes are more under-center runs, more multi-TE sets, and feeding the new backfield — he historically doubles the 11.2% 12-personnel rate the Saints ran in 2025 (29.9% in PHI 2024; nola.com). Expect ~65 plays/game with a pass rate drifting down from 2025's script-inflated 63.9%, a fed WR1 (Olave 27.6% TS in year 1), and modest RB target share (13.6% in 2025) that Etienne's profile should push toward the middle band.

QB situation

• QB1: Tyler Shough (2025 rd-2 pick, year 2 of rookie deal; benching risk: low — team publicly committed to him as the 2026 starter after a 5-4 finish, 67.6% comp, 2,384 yds, 10 TD/6 INT; ESPN, 2026-01-08)
• Backup: Spencer Rattler vs. Zach Wilson (2026 FA signing) — open QB2 battle (neworleanssaints.com/RotoWire, retrieved 2026-07-07) — tier C (Rattler's 2025 starts produced a compressed, inefficient offense before the switch; Wilson is a reclamation)
• Contingency line: If Shough misses time: Rattler or Wilson, tier C — expect pass volume and efficiency to crater, aDOT down, Olave's treatment shifts from fed alpha to contested-volume compiler; every NO pass-catcher's floor drops a tier and the offense leans on Etienne in positive scripts.

O-line

• Projected starters LT–RT: Kelvin Banks Jr. (LT, 2025 1.09) — David Edwards (LG, 2026 FA signing, multi-year; terms UNVERIFIED) — Erik McCoy (C) — Cesar Ruiz (RG) — Taliese Fuaga (RT) (SI.com way-too-early lineup + nola.com "starters seem set", retrieved 2026-07-07). No rookie starters; rd-4 pick Jeremiah Wright (4.132) is depth.
• Interior vs edge: 2025 was bad everywhere (29th PBWR despite premium tackle capital), but the tackles (Banks/Fuaga, both recent 1st-rounders) are the long-term strength; the interior is the question — McCoy's availability and Edwards' arrival at LG decide whether interior pressure keeps killing the deep game. Treat deep-aDOT projections cautiously until the unit proves mid-tier.

Scheme family

• Run scheme: mixed zone-lean with a stated 2026 shift to more under-center runs and duo/gap looks out of multi-TE sets (louisianasports.net/nola.com, retrieved 2026-07-07) — fits one-cut, three-down profiles (Etienne) over pure satellite backs.
• Pass-game family: Moore's Coryell-rooted system layered with modern motion/spacing (BGN scheme breakdown, 2024-02) — timing-based dropback game, high motion, willing to feed a true X iso'd on the boundary; slot usage is featured (Olave and Juwan Johnson worked the slot at minicamp — nola.com, 2026-06). Implication: mid-to-high aDOT for the WR1/WR2, PPR-friendly TE seams, WR3 snaps at risk as 12-personnel roughly doubles.

Target/touch hierarchy & vacated math

Departed (name — 2025 targets / carries):

• Rashid Shaheed, WR — 66 tgt / 2 car (traded to SEA at deadline, 2025-11-04 — ESPN/nfl.com)
• Brandin Cooks, WR — 25 tgt / 0 car (UFA, not re-signed as of 2026-07-07 — absent from all 2026 WR depth-chart reporting, PFN)
• Taysom Hill, TE/QB — 16 tgt / 52 car (UFA, unsigned, weighing retirement; no Saints offer out — nola.com/clutchpoints, 2026-05)
• Foster Moreau, TE — 10 tgt (departed-presumed; not in reported 2026 TE room — UNVERIFIED)
• Jack Stoll TE (11 tgt) and Dante Pettis WR (11 tgt) — 2026 status UNVERIFIED

Vacated targets: 107 confirmed (Shaheed 66 + Cooks 25 + Hill 16), up to ~139 with presumed departures · Vacated carries: ~54 confirmed (Hill 52 + Shaheed 2) (all 2025 numbers from data/stats/2025/receiving.csv + rushing.csv, pulled 2026-07-07). Heavy draft/FA capital was added against this vacancy — this is NOT a no-capital feeding opportunity.

Arrivals (name — claim):

• Jordyn Tyson, WR — rd 1, pick 8 (2026 draft, 2026-04-23 — neworleanssaints.com): presumptive WR2 claim day one
• Travis Etienne Jr., RB — 4yr/$52M (signed 2026-03-11 — Yahoo/neworleanssaints.com; ~$11.8M avg per ESPN): lead-back claim over Kamara
• Noah Fant, TE — 2-yr FA deal (ESPN FA tracker, 2026-03): TE2 with real route claim as 12P doubles
• Oscar Delp, TE — rd 3, pick 73; Bryce Lance, WR — rd 4, pick 136; Barion Brown, WR — rd 6, pick 190 (neworleanssaints.com draft class)

Projected pecking order (state it even if contested — mark contested):

RB committee split: Etienne early-down lead + majority of goal-line; Kamara passing-down/change-of-pace (contested — contract/trade unresolved); Devin Neal (injured in OTAs — Kellen Moore via saintsreport, 2026-06) and Kendre Miller depth. Etienne says he's "preparing as if it's going to be me carrying the weight" (ESPN, 2026-06-15).

Game environment

• Vegas win total: 7.5 (BetMGM, Over −130 / Under +110, retrieved 2026-07-07; opened 7.5 per fox8live 2026-02-19) → script lean: neutral (7.5–9 band), up from 4.5 in 2025
• Projected plays/game: ~65 (2025 actual 65.35, pbp_summary; every Moore offense has averaged ≥65) · Projected pass rate: ~59% of plays (dropback rate) — 2025's 63.9% was inflated by a 6-11 negative script; deduct for PROE −2.3%, the stated 2026 run/TE-set emphasis, Etienne's contract, and the neutral 7.5 win total
• Projected pass attempts/game: ~34 · rush attempts/game: ~26.5 (inputs: 65 plays × 59% = ~38.5 dropbacks, minus ~2.5 sacks and ~2 scrambles ≈ 34 att; 65 × 41% ≈ 26.5 rushes incl. QB runs. 2025 actuals: 34.8 att/g, 41.8 dropbacks/g, 23.6 rush/g — passing.csv, pbp_summary)

Defensive identity

Per methodology §8 — consumed by DST evals (dst.md §3) and /weekly-edge coverage-matchup reads (in-season.md §2).

• Runs the defense: Brandon Staley (DC) — confirmed; entering his second season running the unit (neworleanssaints.com coach page, retrieved 2026-07-07). Moore does not run the defense.
• Tenure with team: year 2 (hired 2025-02) · New DC: no — 2025 scheme stats are valid; continuity green flag
• Front/scheme family: hybrid 3-4 / odd front with Staley's "Penny" 5-1-5 package, split-safety shells, light boxes (42.3% light box — SharpFootballAnalysis, retrieved 2026-07-07); unusually high Base usage vs 12/13 personnel (MatchQuarters, 2026)

• Key defensive arrivals/departures (edge/CB1 first): Edge — Cameron Jordan re-signed 1-yr, final season (2026-06-16, ESPN/CBS; 10.5 sacks in 2025); Chase Young signed 3-yr extension (ESPN, 2026-06; career-high 10 sacks in 2025); Carl Granderson depth (6 sacks). Edge room returns intact — pressure profile holds. CB — Alontae Taylor departed to TEN (ESPN FA tracker, 2026-03); Kool-Aid McKinstry is CB1 with Quincy Riley stepping in opposite (ESPN minicamp report, 2026-06-15). Other: LB Demario Davis to NYJ; LB Kaden Elliss back on 3yr/$33M ($23M gtd); S Julian Blackmon in the projected starting secondary with Justin Reid and Jonas Sanker; DT Christen Miller drafted 2.42.
• Shadow-CB tendency: unknown — Staley's zone-heavy structure is largely sides-locked; no McKinstry travel reporting found (as of 2026-07-07)

Read (1–2 sentences): A zone-heavy (80%+, Cover 3-led), moderate-blitz odd-front defense that got home in 2025 (45 sacks, 7.96%) behind an intact, returning edge rotation — opposing option-route slots and YAC profiles get the coverage-matchup upgrade against NO, man-beater WRs do not. The Taylor departure at corner is the one soft spot; takeaway quality rests on second-year McKinstry and Riley holding up outside.

Stability & change log

• Stability: medium — same play-caller entering year 2 and 4/5 OL returning, but QB1 has only 9 career starts, the skill corps was substantially remade (new lead RB, rd-1 WR, new TE2), and the Kamara contract/role plus the Olave (blood clot) and Tyson (maintenance plan) health situations are unresolved (methodology §10: one major change zone, not high).
• Watch items: (1) Olave's full clearance at camp open — any setback fires a staleness trigger on the entire pecking order; (2) Tyson's health/ramp — he was limited all offseason; (3) Kamara renegotiation/trade — a trade promotes Neal/Miller and consolidates Etienne; (4) QB2 battle (Rattler vs Wilson) — tier-C either way; (5) win total movement off 7.5; (6) Taysom Hill un-retirement/return would claw back goal-line carries.