NO
@DET
@BAL
LV
ATL
MIN
@NYG
PIT
CLE
CAR
@CHI
@CIN
GB
@TB
ARIKendre Miller — RB, NO — 2026
Verdict
AVOID at his current price of nothing (no FFC PPR ADP within the 15-round mock range; listed only via the Sleeper search-rank tail, ~180, as of 2026-07-07). This is the rb.md §7 low-standalone / low-contingent quadrant — "roster clog, AVOID at any meaningful pick" — and in this case at *any* pick: do not spend a final-round dart; he is a watchlist name only. He is rehabbing an October 2025 ACL tear (walk-through reps only as of June 2026), must first beat Devin Neal, Audric Estimé, and camp bodies for one of the last one-or-two RB roster spots behind Travis Etienne (4yr/$52M) and Alvin Kamara, and even the full-health version of him has never earned a passing-down snap share — so there is no PPR floor waiting at the end of the parlay. Why the (residual) market is wrong: the deep-league drafters still clicking his name (Sleeper rank ~180) are paying for 2023 third-round capital whose 2–3-year predictive window (prospect-pedigree §1) closed without one 40%+ snap-share game, and for a "cheap upside" story that requires four independent legs — ACL recovery on schedule, making the 53, a Kamara exit, and an injury above him — to produce even flex weeks. The post-hype screen (rb.md §11) fails on its decisive leg: the ADP crashed, but the depth chart is the opposite of newly open.
Bull case
- Age 24, 147 career touches, day-2 pedigree, and the flashes were real: 4.11 YPC in 2025 with +0.53 and +0.79 RYOE/att in his only two 10-carry games, on a rising snap trend (15%→39%) before the ACL — if he ever gets volume, the tread and per-touch talent are intact, and he's a year-plus younger than most backs entering year 4.
- The room above him is one transaction from thinning: Kamara is 31 with a clean-exit contract and live trade talk, Neal got hurt in OTAs, Estimé is a former day-3 waiver-wire addition — a Kamara exit plus one camp injury makes Miller the #2 in a 65-play/game offense, and the team profile explicitly names a Kamara trade as promoting Neal/Miller.
- Free is the right price for a lottery ticket you can watch: no draft capital required — if he's fully cleared in camp and wins the RB3 job, he's addable in September for nothing, which is exactly how his comps (Foreman 2021, Moss 2023) eventually paid.
Bear case
- The path is a four-leg parlay and leg one is making the team: an October ACL with walk-through-only reps in June, competing against two younger, cheaper, healthier backs for one or two spots — the local beat frames his *roster spot* as the question and a post-minicamp projection already ranks Estimé ahead of him on availability. A meaningful share of his outcome distribution is zero points on another city's practice squad.
- No receiving profile means no floor even in the upside branch: 20 catches in 21 NFL games, 0.88% target share and 18.4% dropback participation in 2025, under 40 career college receptions — in an offense that gave RBs 13.6% of targets and just paid Etienne to take the passing-down work too. Full PPR makes this worse, not better.
- Availability is the resume: 21 of 51 possible games (41%) across three seasons — hamstrings in consecutive years, a concussion, now an ACL — and the day-2 capital window closed without a single 40%+ snap-share game in 2025. Year-4 backs at this usage level essentially never re-emerge with their drafting team; the burden of proof is entirely on him, on one healthy knee, in August.
Projection & comps
Bottom-up build (team volume from data/team-profiles/NO.md, 2026-07-07: ~65 plays/g, ~26.5 rush att/g incl. QB runs → ~23.5 RB carries/g ≈ 400 RB carries; ~34 pass att/g with a 13.6% RB target share ≈ 75–80 RB targets; win total 7.5):
| Component | Floor (p20) | Median (p50) | Ceiling (p80) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Outcome shape | Cut in camp / PUP with no return role | Makes 53 as RB4, spot + injury-fill work | Kamara gone + one absence above him → committee #2 stretch |
| Games active | 0–4 | 10 | 14 |
| Carries (share of ~400 RB carries) | 0–15 | ~40 | ~90 |
| Rush yards (≈4.0 YPC) | 0–60 | ~160 | ~370 |
| Targets → rec | 0–2 | 4 → 3 | 12 → 10 |
| Rec yards | 0–10 | ~20 | ~65 |
| Total TD (xTD-anchored: no goal-line claim behind Etienne; Moore dead-last inside-10 pass rate doesn't add rushing TDs for the RB4) | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| PPR points | ~5 | ~30 | ~70 |
- Median ≈ his own last two seasons (29.1 PPR in 2024, 33.3 in 2025 —
rushing.csvboth years): that *is* the base rate for this role, and he's produced it twice. - Floor: the cut/PUP tail is fat — a June roster projection already ranks Estimé ahead of him "simply because of availability" (Audacy, 2026-06), and the beat frames his "roster spot" as the open question (louisianasports.net, 2026-05-26).
- Ceiling requires the parlay: cleared by camp + roster spot won + Kamara traded/released (speculation live, ESPN 2026-06-15 via team profile) + an Etienne or Neal absence. Even then he projects as the early-down half of a committee with no target role.
- Games risk: high — 21 of 51 possible games played across three seasons (41%); hamstring recurrences in consecutive years (2023 per beat reporting, 2024
injuries.csv: Doubtful wk5, Questionable wk6, Out wk9, Questionable wk14), concussion (Out wk18 2024), torn ACL wk7 2025; Sleeper lists him Questionable as of 2026-07-07. - Comps (role/profile): Rashaad Penny 2020 SEA (post-ACL return into a crowded backfield — 11 touches; the floor shape), Trey Sermon 2022 SF (day-2 pick squeezed off the roster in the capital-decay window; floor shape), Zack Moss 2022 BUF (day-2 back demoted behind new investment — value only realized after relocation; median-to-ceiling shape), D'Onta Foreman 2019→2021 (post-injury day-2 back cut by drafting team; the 2021 TEN revival is what Miller's *out-year* tail looks like — it happened somewhere else, after mass injury). The pattern across comps: this profile's value has historically been realized on a different team or a different season, not the one right after the injury.
- External projections: no
data/projections/directory on hand; analyst/beat consensus uniformly treats him as roster-bubble depth (CBS, louisianasports.net, Audacy, 5–6/2026) — consistent with this median.
Usage profile (rb.md §2–3 table)
All 2025 values REG-only from data/stats/2025/ (nflverse, pulled 2026-07-07), weeks 1–7 (season ended on ACL tear in wk7); 2024 in parentheses. There is no late-season split — his season ended in October.
| Metric | 2025 (2024) | Band | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Snap share | 15/15/27/31/39/39/4% by week; ~28% avg wk1–6 (peak 47% once, 2024 wk15 — snap_counts.csv) | Concern (<40%) | Rising trend wk1–6 (15%→39%) was real but topped out at a #2-grinder level; never a 40%+ game in 2025 |
| Opportunity share (RB backfield, wk1–6) | 31.5% (51 of 162; Kamara 67.3%) — computed from weekly.csv | Concern (<45%) | Clear complementary back even at his career-best usage |
| Weighted opportunities /g (carries + 2.5×targets) | 9.8 wk1–6 (7.7 in 2024) | Concern (<13) | Roughly half the "Good" threshold at his peak |
| High-value touches /g | ~1 est. — 0.8 tgt/g + inside-10 carries (count UNVERIFIED; 1 rush TD) | Concern (<2.5) | No scoring engine: no goal-line claim, no targets |
| Inside-5 carry share (team) | UNVERIFIED count; directionally minimal (1 rush TD on 47 carries; Kamara/others held short-yardage) | Concern | Etienne was signed to feature money and projects to the majority of 2026 goal-line work (team profile) |
| Third-down snap share | UNVERIFIED (down-level splits not in cache); dropback proxy below | Concern | Kamara owned passing downs (63.9% dropback participation) |
| Route participation proxy (on-field share of NO charted dropbacks, wk1–7) | 18.4% (47 of 255 — participation.csv, computed 2026-07-07) | Concern (<25%) | 5 targets on the season, 0.88% team target share; ~0.11 targets per on-field dropback — below even the RB TPRR concern line as a proxy |
| Targets /g | 0.7 (1.3) | Concern (<1.5) | 20 receptions in 21 career NFL games; the floor of zero rb.md §3 warns about |
| xFP / expected PPG | Provider xFP UNVERIFIED; actual 4.8 PPG (4.9 in 2024) | Deep-bench range | Usage-based expectation roughly matches actuals — no hidden value in the role he had |
§2 2×2 read: neither quadrant of the buy grid — low snap share *and* low opportunity share. §7 committee 2×2: low standalone, low contingent — on an Etienne injury the succession is a muddle of Kamara (if rostered), Neal, Estimé, and Miller; per §7, a "handcuff" who'd split on injury has no contingent value. The three-factor handcuff test fails outright: starter not fragile-flagged (Etienne just signed, age-25 workhorse profile), offense middling (7.5 win total), succession not clean (one of three-plus).
Efficiency & pedigree (rb.md §5, prospect-pedigree screens)
| Metric | Value | Band | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| YPC | 4.11 (3.79 in 2024; career 3.91 on 127 carries) | Neutral | rushing.csv 2025/2024; Wikipedia career line via search 2026-07-07 |
| RYOE /att (NGS, weekly rows — only his two 10+ att games) | wk4 +0.53, wk5 +0.79 | Good, tiny sample | ngs_rushing.csv 2025 |
| MTF /touch, YAC /att, breakaway rate | UNVERIFIED (not in cache; not found free for a 47-carry sample) | — | — |
| Pass-pro grade | UNVERIFIED; never held passing downs in 3 seasons (proxy above) | Concern | participation.csv proxy |
Pedigree screens (weighted up because the NFL sample is thin — but they mostly fail):
- Draft capital: 2023 R3, pick 71 (neworleanssaints.com) — day-2, but the §1 decay rule applies in full: capital's predictive power fades by year 3, and he enters year 4 with zero usage record. *A name, not a prior.*
- Post-hype screen (rb.md §11 / pedigree §5): former day-2 pick ✓, ADP crashed ✓, depth chart newly open ✗ — the team added a $52M lead back, retained Kamara, and has two younger cheap backs (Neal 2025 R6; Estimé, former DEN day-3 pick added in 2025) who both out-produced Miller's per-game rushing late in 2025. Screen fails on the decisive leg.
- Year-2 leap window: expired unfired (2024: 6 games, 39 carries, hamstring ×2 + concussion).
- College production (TCU): the rushing half was legitimately good — 1,399 yds/17 TD on 224 carries at age 20 (2022, first-team All-Big 12; frogsowar/saints.com via search 2026-07-07), age-adjusted breakout ✓. But college receiving fails the three-down screen: 16 rec best season, 229 career receiving yards, well under the ≥40-career-receptions threshold (pedigree §2) — and 3 NFL seasons confirmed it.
- Athletic testing: none — no combine drills (injured; MCL from the CFP semifinal), no RAS/speed score on record (FanDuel Research combine page via search 2026-07-07). UNVERIFIED athletically, at a position where testing separates equal-capital ceilings.
- Age/mileage: 24.1 (DOB 2002-06-11, Sleeper 2026-07-07), 147 career NFL touches — the odometer is pristine; availability, not mileage, is the anti-skill (41% of possible games). Contract year (final rookie season, $1.52M base / $1.80M cap — Spotrac via search 2026-07-07) is noise per rb.md §9.
Context (from data/team-profiles/NO.md, built 2026-07-07)
- Backfield: Etienne Jr. signed 4yr/$52M (2026-03-11) = featured-role intent per §9's contract gate — early downs + majority goal line, and he brings receiving work (36 rec at JAX 2025). Kamara (restructured, $3M gtd, live trade/cut speculation per ESPN 2026-06-15) holds passing downs if rostered. Devin Neal (2025 R6) took 74–82% snaps in wks 12–14 of 2025 and was the org's in-season answer when Kamara wavered — but was injured in OTAs (Moore via saintsreport, 2026-06). Estimé ran 46 carries in 5 games late-2025. Ty Chandler and UDFA CJ Donaldson round out a room fighting for the last one-or-two spots (Yahoo/Bolavip via Kamara eval, retrieved 2026-07-07).
- Miller's 2026 status: tore his ACL 2025-10-19 vs CHI, IR'd 2025-10-21 (nola.com, neworleanssaints.com, CBS). Did not practice at May OTAs; attended June minicamp without participating; took 11-on-11 walk-through reps in mid-June and is "on track" per Moore, with Week 1 possible *if no setbacks* (FantasyPros/CBS/RotoWire, 6/2026). Sleeper injury status: Questionable (2026-07-07).
- Play-caller/scheme: Kellen Moore, year 2 — fast pace (~65 plays/g) but run-lean PROE (−2.3%), modest 13.6% RB target share, dead-last inside-10 pass rate. The stated 2026 shift to more under-center/duo and doubled 12-personnel nominally suits a downhill runner — but scheme fit is irrelevant at zero touches.
- Game script: win total 7.5, neutral. Immaterial for a player whose role question is the 53-man roster, not score state — though it's worth noting he has *no* trailing-script utility (18.4% dropback participation), so even a roster spot buys only positive-script scraps.
- O-line: PBWR 56% (29th), RBWR 70% (23rd), 4/5 returning — below-average run blocking for whoever carries.
Tripwires (re-run this eval on any of these)
- Kamara traded or released while Miller is fully cleared and practicing → re-run; likely upgrades to a low-confidence HOLD/watchlist dart (still behind Etienne and Neal).
- Etienne or Neal extended injury absence with beat reports naming Miller (not Estimé) the beneficiary of first-team reps → re-run; potential deep-league TARGET at a free price.
- Miller cut or traded by NO (bubble per beat/roster projections) → eval void; re-run against the new depth chart, or mark undraftable if unsigned.
- ACL setback / opens the season on PUP → AVOID hardens; remove from watchlist entirely.
- Preseason: Miller out-snaps Neal/Estimé with the second unit and shows burst (breakaway runs, camp reports of "juice") → move to deep-league watchlist; still not a draft pick until a role is visible.
Sources
data/stats/2025/+data/stats/2024/:rushing.csv,receiving.csv,weekly.csv,snap_counts.csv,ngs_rushing.csv,participation.csv,injuries.csv,rosters.csv— nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07 (opportunity shares wk1–6 and the 18.4% dropback-participation proxy computed 2026-07-07; 2025 roster status RES = IR)data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv— Miller has no FFC PPR ADP; row present only via sleeper-searchrank tail (2026-07-07)data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json— age 24 (DOB 2002-06-11), TCU, 3 yrs exp, team NO, depth_chart_order 3, injury_status Questionable, search_rank 180 (2026-07-07)data/team-profiles/NO.md— built 2026-07-07 (Moore tendencies, Etienne 4yr/$52M, Kamara contested/ESPN 2026-06-15 trade speculation, Neal OTA injury, OL win rates, win total 7.5, ~65 plays/g, 13.6% RB target share)evaluations/players/2026/alvin-kamara.md(2026-07-07) — Neal's 74–82% snap takeover wks 12–14 2025; full backfield room list (Chandler, Donaldson) via Yahoo/Bolavip- nola.com + neworleanssaints.com + CBS Sports (2025-10-20/21, via search 2026-07-07): torn ACL wk7 vs CHI, season-ending, placed on IR
- louisianasports.net (2026-05-26): "plenty to prove… path to a role, and perhaps even roster spot, a bit more challenging"; Audacy WWL 53-man projection (2026-06): Estimé ranked ahead of Miller on availability; battle = Neal/Estimé/Miller for 2–3 spots
- FantasyPros (~2026-06): 11-on-11 walk-through reps; on track for more in camp. CBS Sports (retrieved 2026-07-07): Week 1 possible contingent on no setbacks; final year of rookie deal. Spotrac (retrieved 2026-07-07): 2026 base $1,521,044 / cap $1,799,102
- neworleanssaints.com + frogsowar/SI-TCU (2023-04-28, via search 2026-07-07): drafted R3 pick 71; TCU 2022: 224-1,399-17 + 16 rec/116 yds; career 33 g, 2,400+ rush yds, 6.7 YPC, 229 rec yds. Wikipedia (via fetch 2026-07-07): NFL 2023: 8 g, 41-156-1, 10 rec; career 21 g, 127-497-3, 20 rec
- FanDuel Research combine page (via search 2026-07-07): no combine on-field testing (injury) — no 40/RAS on record
- UNVERIFIED (not in cache, not found free): inside-10/inside-5 carry counts, true third-down snap share, MTF/touch, YAC/att, breakaway rate, provider xFP, pass-pro grade, 2023 injury-report detail