Don't Look at My Team

Devaughn Vele (WR, NO) — 2026 evaluation

Scoring note: evaluator instructions assumed league-settings placeholders (full PPR / 4pt pass TD), but methodology/league-settings.md carries confirmed values as of 2026-07-08: half PPR (0.5/rec), 6pt pass TD, no TE premium. Per the hard rule (league scoring comes from the settings file), this eval is scored Half-PPR. Full-PPR equivalents where relevant: median ≈ 94, ceiling ≈ 148.

Verdict

HOLD (medium confidence) at mock-undrafted (Sleeper rank tail, search_rank 209, 2026-07-07). The market's case is fair and mostly right: New Orleans spent pick 1.08 on Jordyn Tyson at Vele's exact roster spot (neworleanssaints.com, 2026-04-23), Kellen Moore has publicly committed to doubling the 12-personnel rate that pays WR3 routes (nola.com, 2026 offseason), Vele is a 7th-round pick who turns 29 in December, and he's finished each of his two NFL seasons with 13 games and an injury absence (IR, shoulder, Dec 2025). In this league's format — 12 teams, 2WR+flex, half PPR, 6 bench spots — leaving him undrafted is correct pricing, so no "market is wrong" thesis is claimed. What keeps this from being a throwaway AVOID is a genuinely live, *demonstrated* contingent path: he is the beat-confirmed starting WR3 who took first-team reps all spring (Audacy/WWL, 2026-06-22), and the two receivers ahead of him are the roster's two biggest WR health questions (Olave: 2025 lung blood clot + prior concussions; Tyson: "well documented" injury history, held out of essentially all OTAs/minicamp on a ramp-up plan). When Vele got exactly that promotion in 2025 (weeks 10–15, post-Shaheed trade, with 2026 starter Tyler Shough at QB) he converted it immediately: 83–93% snaps, ~19–21% target share, 2.08 YPRR weeks 12–15, and an 8/8–93–1 game. He is the top of the camp watchlist, not a draft pick in this format — in 14+-team, 3-WR, or full-PPR best-ball formats the same profile is a defensible final-round TARGET.

Bull case

The contingency is proven, not hypothetical: given the WR2 job for five games in 2025 (weeks 10–15) he immediately posted 83–93% snaps, ~19–21% TS, 0.20 TPRR, 2.08 YPRR (wks 12–15) and 8.3 HPPR/g — with the same QB and play-caller he'd step in for in 2026. Most free WRs would need to *win* that role; Vele already banked the tape.
He backs up the roster's two biggest WR health risks: Olave is coming off a lung blood clot that ended his 2025 (plus a concussion history) and Tyson — an injury-flagged prospect — was held out of essentially the entire offseason program. If either misses time, Vele is the next man up at ~6 targets/game in a Kellen Moore offense; the Michael Wilson 2025 comp (126 tgt, 181.6 HPPR) is the tail outcome.
The skill profile is QB-proof and age-resistant: elite hands (1 drop, 96% catchable-catch rate, 7/9 contested — FTN 2025), an intermediate-heavy tree at the sweet-spot aDOT (11.1), 30% of targets on third/fourth down, and a possession archetype that doesn't decay at 29 the way speed profiles do.

Bear case

A first-round pick was drafted into his exact seat: Tyson at 1.08 makes the ceiling scenario dependent on someone else's injury, and the org also added R4 and R6 receivers plus Noah Fant — five bodies with claims on the WR3/12P snaps behind him. His standalone role is a shrinking 3-WR-set job in an offense deliberately moving toward two-TE sets.
Even the good version has no TD equity or PPR juice: the offense was dead-last in inside-10 pass rate over expected, Vele saw 4 end-zone targets all year, YAC over expected is negative two straight seasons, and half-PPR halves the reception value that props up possession WRs — his *demonstrated* WR2-stint pace (8.3 HPPR/g) is only a flex line.
Availability and age: 13 games in each of two seasons, an IR-ending shoulder, a hip issue, and a June 2026 minicamp knock — for a player who turns 29 in December with 7th-round pedigree and a season-long TPRR that has never cracked 0.21. The margin between "starting WR3" and "cut-or-buried" in the NFL's deepest-reported WR room is one bad camp.

Projection & comps

Bottom-up (Half-PPR, 17-game season; team inputs from data/team-profiles/NO.md: ~65 plays/g, ~38.5 dropbacks/g, ~34 att/g):

Scenario	Games	RP	Routes	TPRR	Targets	Rec	Yards	TD	HPPR
Floor (p20)	11	~45%	~190	0.16	30	19	225	1	~40
Median (p50)	15	~55%	~318	0.17	54	35	415	2.5	~76
Ceiling (p80)	16	~72%	~443	0.19	84	55	660	4.5	~120

Inputs: RP median ~55% reflects WR3 in shrinking 3-WR sets (12P projected to roughly double from 11.2%; nola.com via team profile) plus the normal 2–3 games/season of elevated role from WR attrition; ceiling assumes an extended (6+ game) Olave or Tyson absence at his demonstrated ~83% RP / 0.20 TPRR from weeks 10–15, 2025. TPRR anchored to his two-year on-field record (0.192 rookie proxy, 0.203 in the 2025 starter stint — computed, throw-play denominator). Catch rate ~65% (career 66.3%/74.5% NGS; 96% on catchable balls). TDs anchored to xTD ≈ 2.5–3 at the median: 4 end-zone and 5 RZ targets in 2025 (computed from pbp), on an offense that was dead-last in inside-10 pass rate over expected (team profile) — TD equity is structurally poor here. Provider xFP: UNVERIFIED (no export in data/). No external projections cached (data/projections/ does not exist).

Games-played risk: medium — 13 of 17 games in both NFL seasons; 2025 ended on IR (week-15 shoulder, "not considered major" — whodatdish/nola.com, Dec 2025); hip (wk 3–4) earlier in 2025; missed the final minicamp practice with an unspecified knock (Audacy, 2026-06). No chronic soft-tissue pattern.

Comp seasons (sanity check; HPPR computed from cached receiving.csv unless noted):

Devaughn Vele 2024 DEN — 55 tgt, 41-475-3 in 13 g, 86.0 HPPR (verified) → median anchor
Josh Palmer 2024 LAC — 65 tgt, 39-584-1, 83.9 HPPR (verified) → median: big WR3 on a run-lean offense
Darius Slayton 2024 NYG — 71 tgt, 39-573-2, 88.8 HPPR (verified) → median
Michael Wilson 2024 ARI — 71 tgt, 47-548-4, 102.3 HPPR (verified) → median-to-ceiling
Michael Wilson 2025 ARI — 126 tgt, 78-1006-7, 181.6 HPPR (verified) → the beyond-p80 tail: WR3-on-paper who fully inherited volume when teammates missed time. This is what the free lottery ticket pays if both injury flags fire.
Josh Palmer 2025 BUF — 37 tgt, 22-303-0, 41.3 HPPR (verified) → floor

Usage profile

2025 full season vs the weeks 10–15 split (post-Shaheed-trade WR2 stint, Shough starting — the split is the live signal for the *contingency* role only; the standalone 2026 role re-projects lower because rd-1 capital arrived, per wr.md §4):

Metric	2025 full	Wks 10–15 split	Band (split)	Read
Target share	6.9% (receiving.csv)	18.8% (20.6% wks 12–14; computed from weekly.csv)	Good-adjacent	Real, recent, with the 2026 QB — but the role now requires an injury ahead of him
TPRR (throw-play proxy)	0.173	0.203 (0.202 wks 12–14)	Below Good (0.22)	Solid earner for a WR3; not an alpha earning rate
Route participation (proxy)	36.6%	82.7% (90.8% wks 12–14)	Good→Elite in stint	Proves he holds a full-time role when given one
Air-yards share	9.2%	~27% avg wks 12–15 (weekly.csv)	Good	Legit downfield claim in the stint
WOPR	0.168	~0.51 avg wks 12–15	Good	WR2-stint WOPR in the Good band
RZ target share	5/52 = 9.6% (pbp, computed)	3/9 wks 10–15	Concern (full)	TD access thin; offense is bottom-of-league goal-line pass
End-zone targets	4 (pbp, computed)	—	Concern	Nowhere near top-24
xFP	UNVERIFIED (no provider export)	usage-implied ~8–9 HPPR/g in stint	—	Actual 8.3 HPPR/g wks 10–15 ≈ usage; no TD-luck distortion

§2 2×2 read: season-long low RP with a ~0.20 TPRR when on the field is the expansion-candidate quadrant, but below the 0.24 trigger — a mild green flag, not a screaming one. The classic breakout screens don't fire: 7th-round capital fails the day-1/2 gate (prospect-pedigree §5), and by the capital decay rule (year 3) his NFL usage record — decent, not elite — is now the prior.

Target quality / route tree (computed from 2025 pbp + NGS, pulled 2026-07-08):

aDOT 11.1 (432 air yards / 39 targets; NGS weekly intended AY 10.3–14.5 in the stint) — the 8–13 intermediate sweet spot. 2024 was 8.4.
Depth mix: 5% behind LOS / 38% short / 46% intermediate / 10% deep — earns at 3 of 4 depths; healthy tree.
Field zone: 33% MOF / 67% boundary (pbp pass_location — cruder than a charted "between the numbers" split; Fantasy Points export UNVERIFIED). Below the 45% MOF-earner bar, above the 75% boundary-only red line.
Third/fourth-down targets: 12 of 40 (30%) — real trust-chain usage from Shough during the stint.
Designed touches: ~none — no manufactured floor.

Alignment: listed SWR (slot) depth 3 on Sleeper (2026-07-07); in practice a 6'5"/210 big-bodied outside/big-slot hybrid who played in NO's 3-WR sets alongside Olave and Shaheed/Cooks (participation.csv). Precise slot/wide % UNVERIFIED (no alignment export; PFF page below snap threshold for 2025 grades).

Coverage splits: per-coverage TPRR/YPRR UNVERIFIED (no charting export). Robustness proxy from FTN (2025, all 40 targets matched): 1 drop (2.5%, Elite), 25 of 26 catchable balls caught (96%), 7 of 9 contested balls caught (78%, Elite band — but tiny sample, and contested reliance is fragile y/y per wr.md §6). Beat scouting matches: "tough catches outside his frame, through contact and in jump-ball situations" (louisianasports.net, 2026-05-25). His raw 64% catch rate is throw-driven, not hands-driven — a mild buy signal.

Efficiency: YPRR proxy 1.30 full season / 1.78 wks 10–15 / 2.08 wks 12–15 (yards ÷ throw-plays-on-field — slightly inflates vs true routes). YAC over expected negative in both seasons (NGS: −0.15 in 2024; negative every charted 2025 week) — he is a catch-point winner, not a YAC creator. Rookie year proxy: RP 61.5%, TPRR 0.192, YPRR 1.66 in games played (2024 participation.csv, computed).

Archetype: possession/contested big slot–X hybrid — no elite speed dependence, which ages better (relevant: he turns 29 on 2026-12-12; Sleeper DOB). Pedigree: Utah, 2024 R7 pick 235 (DEN); older prospect via two-year LDS mission in Samoa; college production modest (best seasons 50-595-5, 43-593-3 — never a dominator; breakout-age screen: Concern); tested well for size (4.47 forty at 6'5"/210 — Wikipedia, retrieved 2026-07-08). NO paid a 2026 4th (No. 108) + 2027 7th to acquire him 2025-08-20 (ESPN) — real organizational investment; roster spot "almost certainly safe" (louisianasports.net, 2026-05-25).

Context (from `data/team-profiles/NO.md`, built 2026-07-07)

Play-caller: Kellen Moore (HC, year 2) — fast pace (~65 plays/g) but run-lean PROE (−2.3%) and dead-last inside-10 pass rate over expected; stated 2026 emphasis on under-center runs and multi-TE sets, with 12P projected to roughly double from 11.2% — the single biggest structural threat to WR3 routes.
QB: Tyler Shough (2025 R2, year 2), publicly committed as the 2026 starter after a 5-4 finish. Vele's entire quality sample came with Shough — the wk-13 8/8-93-1 game was Shough's fifth start. QB continuity is a quiet plus for him specifically.
O-line: 29th PBWR in 2025; 4/5 returning with premium young tackles. Interior pressure compresses to quick/intermediate game — which is Vele's tree, a modest fit positive.
Competition & vacated math: 107+ vacated targets (Shaheed 66, Cooks 25, Hill 16) — but the org spent pick 1.08 (Tyson), R4 (Bryce Lance) and R6 (Barion Brown) against the vacancy, plus Noah Fant at TE2. This explicitly fails the "vacated targets with no capital added" green flag. Hierarchy: Olave (27.6% TS in 2025) → Tyson → Juwan Johnson (102 tgt) → Etienne/Kamara → Fant/Vele contested for the 6th claim. Room depth is real: Lance, Trey Palmer, Ja'Lynn Polk, Ronnie Bell all flashed at minicamp ("deepest receiver group" of the beat's tenure — Audacy, 2026-06-22).
2026 spring status: first-team reps through OTAs/minicamp while Tyson was held out; described as "rounding out the starting trio" with "some elite traits" (Audacy, 2026-06-22); missed the final minicamp practice with an unspecified injury alongside Tipton and Means (Audacy, 2026-06).
Environment: win total 7.5 (BetMGM, 2026-07-07) — neutral scripts; ~34 pass att/g projected, down from a script-inflated 2025.

Tripwires (void this eval; re-run)

Olave or Tyson miss significant time (camp setback, regular-season injury) → contingency activates; re-run — likely flips to TARGET/waiver-priority immediately.
Camp/preseason reports of Bryce Lance, Polk, or Palmer taking first-team WR3 reps from Vele, or his minicamp injury lingering into August → re-run toward AVOID (roster-clog, no path).
Preseason confirms 12-personnel ≥ ~25–30% with Vele off the field in those sets → ceiling and median both compress; downgrade.
Vele traded or released in final cuts (roster spot currently reported safe) → re-run from the new situation.
ADP moves inside ~pick 150 on camp hype → he becomes a FADE at that price; this verdict only holds at free.

Sources

data/stats/2025/ receiving.csv, weekly.csv, ngs_receiving.csv, snap_counts.csv, injuries.csv, participation.csv, ftn_charting.csv; data/stats/2024/ same tables — nflverse via nflreadpy, pulled 2026-07-07. RP/TPRR/YPRR computed on a throw-play denominator (slightly inflates vs true route counts).
nflverse pbp 2025 (loaded via nflreadpy, 2026-07-08, fallback-chain step 2): RZ/end-zone targets, depth-of-target mix, pass-location mix, third-down targets; FTN drop/catchable/contested joined on play IDs (40/40 targets matched; pbp shows 40 targets vs 39 in receiving.csv — one nullified/edge play).
data/raw/sleeper/players_2026-07-07.json — DOB 1997-12-12 (age 28), 6'5"/210, Utah, years_exp 2, depth SWR-3, search_rank 209.
data/adp/adp_ffc_2026-07-07.csv — Vele: no FFC ADP (sleeper-searchrank row, 2026-07-08) = mock-undrafted; teammates: Olave 20.4, Etienne 38.9, Tyson 85.5, Kamara 140.5, Shough 149.6, Juwan Johnson 156.5 (FFC PPR, 2026-07-07).
data/team-profiles/NO.md (built 2026-07-07) — Moore tendencies/PROE/12P, Shough commitment, OL, vacated-target math, arrivals (Tyson 1.08, Lance 4.136, Brown 6.190, Fant, Etienne), hierarchy, win total 7.5.
methodology/league-settings.md — Half-PPR 0.5/rec, 6pt pass TD, no TE premium, confirmed 2026-07-08 (supersedes the caller's "assume full PPR" instruction).
ESPN (2025-08-20): trade — DEN receives 2026 R4 (No. 108) + 2027 R7 for Vele. Wikipedia (retrieved 2026-07-08): draft capital 2024 R7 #235, college stats, LDS mission, 4.47 forty.
CBS/RotoWire (2025-12-14) + Crescent City Sports/nola.com/whodatdish (Dec 2025): week-15 shoulder, IR placement ending 2025 season, "not considered major."
Audacy/WWL (2026-06-22, post-minicamp top-10 takes; day-1 minicamp notes): Vele "rounding out the starting trio," first-team reps, "elite traits"; Tyson held out on ramp-up plan; deepest WR room; Vele/Tipton/Means missed final minicamp practice.
louisianasports.net (2026-05-25/26, 2026-02-05): Vele competition/roster-spot-safe framing, wks-12-15 production recap (18 rec, 239 yds in final 4 games), jump-ball scouting; pre-draft "breakout" sentiment (Feb, pre-Tyson — noted as stale).
UNVERIFIED / gaps: true route counts and provider TPRR/YPRR (PFF 2025 page below snap threshold); slot/wide alignment %; per-coverage splits; Fantasy Points MOF share; provider xFP; college dominator/target-share percentages (raw totals only); RAS composite.